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LifeFuel we will have simulated AI non-sentient female android robots in 2033 and we will be able to reverse aging in 2053. Ray Kurzweil.

barcacel

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first i just want to talk about why android robots can't have rights if you give them a non-sentient AI

there are 2 types of AI:

a simulated AI: A simulated ai would mimic the behavior of humans (software), but it would not mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and therefore would not be sentient

an emulated AI: an emulated ai would mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and behavior of humans (software), therefore it would be sentient


there have been many series and media portraying android robots as "sentient" or "alive", all of that is bullshit. Why? You cannot replicate sentience by just programming a robot, to replicate sentience you would need to scan the whole human brain and copy it into a machine, even then I don't believe it will be possible because I still think that you need a biological brain to create it.
What makes a human different from a pile of plastic? we are made of cells, machines are made of minerals and non-living matter
A non-sentient android robot will just be a piece of plastic imitating a human because it will not be made of cells but instead of minerals and non-living matter
So, we can have android robots that have a simulated AI because they will not be alive, and they can't have rights because they are not living beings.

We will have android robots that will look indistinguishable from humans in 2033 and reverse aging technologies in 2053 to not die of old age

First let's talk about Ray Kurzweil and then after the dates, thanks to this guy we know the 2033 and 2053 date. Ray Kurzweil is the most famous futurist, he predicted a lot of things in 1999 for 2009, 2010s, 2019, 2020s, 2030s and 2045. Here is a 2010 paper of him talking about how his 1999 predictions for 2009 went:


in every prediction he copes saying that he was just off by some years, so they are right or that they are right because some companies have shown the prototype of the product but in reality, they took like 5 years to be launched after the prototype was shown in 2010, If you read all of the 1999 predictions on that 2010 paper i linked called "how my predictions are faring", you can see that every prediction he made for 2009 in 1999 happened in 2015, there are 2 reasons why this happened:

1-all of his predictions are late by1.57x but right due to Kurzweil thinking that computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months when in fact it doubles every 18 months (or 1.57x years)

2-the death of the fifth paradigm started slowing down technology

explanation:

1-all of his predictions are late by 1.57x but right due to Kurzweil thinking that computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months when in fact it doubles every 18 months (or 1.57x years)

in the past Kurzweil always said and thought that the computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months as you can see in this video:


View: https://youtu.be/ikgAId-hWVg


In a 2011 study it was found that this figure was wrong and that it was every 18 months or every 1.57x years. Koomey's Law was created thanks to this study



So this means that every prediction made by Ray Kurzweil before 2011 will be late by 1.57x. Kurzweil can't admit that he was wrong because he would lose all his scientific credibility

this guy explains it here:


View: https://youtu.be/KDtD7CSJ6m4?t=198


ok, i understand that but the problem is that when i increase 2009 from 1999 by 1.57x i get 2014 and not 2015:

2009 - 1999 = 10
10 x 1.57x = 15.7
15.7 + 1999 = 2014.7

that is easy to respond, that is because:

2-the death of the fifth paradigm started slowing down technology

as you can see in this video:


View: https://youtu.be/RsbPjQ7-HgM


Kurzweil always thought that the sixth paradigm (3d computer chips) would come in 2013 and that there would be no slowing's in technology, that did not happen. Also, he thought that the new paradigm would be at his full speed when it changed in 2013:


so, to calculate what should have happened in 2014 if the death of the fifth paradigm of computing never slowed down technology, we can use this graph i made using the performance and development trendline that Kartik Gada modified in his supercomputing video:

Kdkdkdkdkdkddddkd

Screenshot 2022 12 18 034252

as you can see in the graph above 2014.7 would land in 2015, so now we know why everything that Kurzweil predicted for 2009 happened in 2015

Now you need to understand that the fifth paradigm will completely die in 2025, the creator of Moore's law said that Moore's law would die in 2025 and every year moore's law is taking longer to double:

Dkkddkdkkdd

we know a new paradigm will be created after Moore's law dies because there have already been 5 technology paradigms in the past, Kurzweil has talked about them

Why i think that we will go back to the original trendline of where we are supposed to be technologically before 2030:

look at this image made by Kurzweil using old data and old sources and look at the year 1960:

Jsjsjjsjs

as you can see there was a huge increase in less than one year in 1960 which implies that a new paradigm can get us back to the trendline very fast, in less than one year

we also have another evidence of it in 1962 on this other image made by him:

Aoaooaoa

So, I just think that we will get back to the trendline before 2030 and that is why we can use the 1.57x method to calculate things after 2030 without using the performance development graph

I got this idea by reading one of the comments on his supercomputing video:

Klo

Ok so now we can go back to the 2033 android robot and 2053 reverse aging technologies to not die of old age prediction now that we have a method to know when a prediction will happen

in his 1999 book called the age of spiritual machines on page 107 he predicted that we would have sexbots by the start of the third decade of the new century which would be 2021

Lp

i know that the word sexbot does not sound like android robot but in his 2009 book called transcend on page 123 he talked more about what kind of things we would have in 2023 and he talked more about these sexbots:

Ls

so as you can see they will be android robots because they will look indistinguishable from humans (the reason why he wrote 2023 was because he wanted to show a point on time where many other technologies would be there, he didn't only talk about android robots on that book, he talked about other technologies, medical devices and other things that would be there in 2023)

so, we can use the 1.57x method with 2021 because by that time in our timeline the sixth paradigm will be at his full speed and we will be back in the trendline and where we are supposed to be technologically in that trendline, so the method for 2021 would be:

2021 - 1999 = 22
22 x 1.57 = 34.54
34.54 + 1999 = 2033.54

ok, so we will have android robots in 2033

what about the 2053 reverse aging prediction to not die of old age?

Kkdkdkdkdkddd

so as you can see he says that age reverse is a reality in 2034, 2034 would be 2053:

2034 - 1999 = 35
35 x 1.57 = 54.95
54.95 + 1999 = 2053.95

so as you can see we will be able to reverse aging in 2053

a quarter of a century is 25 years, unfortunately ray and terry might die of old age before the slow aging technologies that will come in the 2030s and the reverse aging technologies that will come in 2053 because of his predictions being late by 1.57x and the sixth paradigm slowing down things temporarily for them to not even be able to get slow down aging technologies, we will go back to the trendline before 2030 so we will be able to have slow down aging technologies in the 2030s and reverse aging technologies in 2053

Here is the method for 2023:

2023 - 1999 = 24
24 x 1.57 = 37.68
37.68 + 1999 = 2036.68

(1999) the age of spiritual machines book:
https://jimdo-storage.global.ssl.fa.../THE_AGE_OF_SPIRITUAL_MACHINES_WHEN_COMPU.pdf

(2005) the singularity is near book:
https://paisdospuntocero.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/book-kurzweil-singularity-is-near-1.pdf

(2009) transcend book:

(2009) transcend book pdfdrive:

as for my future, i will just get an electrical engineering technology associate degree and get a robotics technician job in a sex robot company, then i might climb the job ladder and become a robotics engineer or just work fixing android robots

bonus:
old thread on why hypergamy is increasing:

 
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DespressedCurryCel1

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I think so too but will they look realistic enough?
 
Copexodius Maximus

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His dating theories are pointless because in actuality it’s very hard to predict how fast certain new innovative technologies will advance. This is due to coming upon problems you didn’t even previously know were problems that are solved by our perceptual frameworks automatically but are not as obvious when coding it into a logic system like an AI
 
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Jotogo

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Will Klaus Schwab not lockdown this kind of stuff from the public?
 
Incel_Marxist_Carn

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Glad you took the time pointing this out, thought about it recently. the chances of humanity creating a sentient android, especially one who is capable of being alike humans in any way such as in regards to ambition and willpower is near impossible, humans barely even understand the brain itself in regards to such things, if humans survived even a million years from now, it still probably would not exist, its a fun idea do
 
barcacel

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His dating theories are pointless because in actually it’s very hard to predict how fast certain new innovative technologies will advance. This is due to coming upon problems you didn’t even previously know were problems that are solved by our perceptual frameworks automatically but are not as obvious when coding it into a logic system like an AI
i just believe him because he has gotten like 95 percent of his predictions right if you use this 1.57x method and account for the slowing of the fifth paradigm dying, he also makes great points in his 1 hour talks
 
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BookwormCel

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another underrated high-iq high-quality post.

Whitepilled again, looking forward to it
 
Transcended Trucel

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His dating theories are pointless because in actuality it’s very hard to predict how fast certain new innovative technologies will advance. This is due to coming upon problems you didn’t even previously know were problems that are solved by our perceptual frameworks automatically but are not as obvious when coding it into a logic system like an AI
this 100%. Also whores will probably outlaw em if they come out
 
barcacel

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this 100%. Also whores will probably outlaw em if they come out
you guys are such a copers

we could create our own country, we can go live to international waters or to space where nothing is illegal

men could take over a country and make it a men only country, we could elect politicians that were pro-non-sentient androids, we could make the country in an island, we could live in boats or water houses on international waters and when technology is advanced enough we could use a spaceship that is self sufficient to go live to space.


also there is no legal reason to outlaw them because they will not be alive if you use a non-sentient ai
 
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barcacel

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there is a difference between men wanting the most attractive non-sentient female android robots and women wanting the most attractive men, things are different, men don't have any alternatives to human women now, women have to accept reality and date their looksmatch because men have no other option now, we will have non-sentient android robots for females also so neither gender will be forced to be lonely unlike today.

we will not be as hypergamous as human women today because human women will also be able to have 100 non-sentient android robots to not be lonely, the birth ratio is 105 boys per 100 girls so today we depend on girls not being hypergamous to not be lonely, women will not depend on us not being hypergamous to not be lonely when the non-sentient android robots come out
 
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N

nohope.

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there is a difference between men wanting the most attractive non-sentient female android robots and women wanting the most attractive men, things are different, men don't have any alternatives to human women now, women have to accept reality and date their looksmatch because men have no other option now, we will have non-sentient android robots for females also so neither gender will be forced to be lonely unlike today.

we will not be as hypergamous as human women today because human women will also be able to have 100 non-sentient android robots to not be lonely, the birth ratio is 105 boys per 100 girls so today we depend on girls not being hypergamous to not be lonely, women will not depend on us not being hypergamous to not be lonely when the non-sentient android robots come out
so what you're saying is we'll have realistic sex bots? I don't want to read all that
 
willystroker

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As much as I wish it were so, Ray Kurzweil is the king of cope. He pretty much bases all of his predictions, almost all of which have utterly failed, on Moore's Law, which doesn't explain how general AI will be achieved because it's not simply a matter of computational complexity (which has seen a decreasing rate of increase since 2010 anyway) but of replicating the brain, an insanely difficult problem that neural scientists have only the faintest clue how to do.

As of now, there's no reason to believe it's within humanity's limits, especially since there's the looming threat of social and economic collapse. yet Kurzweil still believes the bluepill delusion that the scientists will unleash the Singularity upon his deathbed, gracing him with immortality just in the knick of time.
 
nazianime

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Will, AI ever be smarter then humans though? You posted how an AI can't be sentient because it we would have to scan the human brain, but that would not stop it from potentially being destructive.

Having browsed this site and read many threads about mens behavior when it comes to relationships. It is an easy target for AI to exploit men as men are the ones that are build the world. Think about how much resources it can exploit, researchers, manufacturing, design, construction the vast majority all controlled by men. Not that I mind though as biological females would get trampled in the process as obsolete bags of meat.
 
barcacel

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Will, AI ever be smarter then humans though? You posted how an AI can't be sentient because it we would have to scan the human brain, but that would not stop it from potentially being destructive.

Having browsed this site and read many threads about mens behavior when it comes to relationships. It is an easy target for AI to exploit men as men are the ones that are build the world. Think about how much resources it can exploit, researchers, manufacturing, design, construction the vast majority all controlled by men. Not that I mind though as biological females would get trampled in the process as obsolete bags of meat.
the people who made the movie terminator should have not been born, can you remove that movie from your head?
 
barcacel

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kaang

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@FlamingCel

Thoughts?
 
DespressedCurryCel1

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hope I'm alive by then
 
Robtical

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barcacel

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want to add this information here so i don't forget about it:

many people think that as the robot gets closer to look human the robot will look worse because of the uncanny valley but no, it works the other way around, this works like the blackpill, ugly robots will be seen as ugly but handsome robots will be more and more appealing each time they get closer to look human, you can see that here:

Untitled design


View: https://youtu.be/a4vVppz4Q6k


 
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barcacel

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i been reading more of the 2011 Koomey's Law study and i noticed that i made an error:

"Computations per kilowatt-hour doubled every 1.57 years over the entire analysis period, a rate of improvement only slightly slower than that for PCs, which saw efficiency double every 1.52 years from 1975 to 2009 (see Figure 4)"
https://www.researchgate.net/public...nds_in_the_Electrical_Efficiency_of_Computing

as you can see i made an error because i only had to take into account computational price efficiency, which was 1.52 instead of 1.57, i will make a new thread and change this error

2021 - 1999 = 22
22 x 1.52 = 33.44
33.44 + 1999 = 2032.44
 
Lv99_BixNood

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