2) Europe
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Even if all migration into Europe were to immediately and permanently stop – a “zero migration” scenario – the Muslim population of Europe still would be expected to rise from the current level of 4.9% to 7.4% by the year 2050. This is because Muslims are younger (by 13 years, on average) and have higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern.
A second, “medium” migration scenario assumes that all refugee flows will stop as of mid-2016 but that recent levels of “regular” migration to Europe will continue (i.e., migration of those who come for reasons other than seeking asylum; see note on terms below). Under these conditions, Muslims could reach 11.2% of Europe’s population in 2050.
Finally, a “high” migration scenario projects the record flow of refugees into Europe between 2014 and 2016 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition (i.e., mostly made up of Muslims) in addition to the typical annual flow of regular migrants. In this scenario, Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current share, but still considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe.
3)Blacks in Europe
In the European Union (EU) as of 2019, there is a record of approximately 9,6 million people of Sub-Saharan African or Afro-Caribbean descent, comprising around 2% of the total population, with over 50% located in France. The countries with the largest African population in the EU are:
France3,000,000–5,000,000 (2009)
Italy463,425 (2020)
Spain1,322,625 (2020)The reported number is simply the reported number of African-born in Spain.
Germany1,000,000 (2020)The German census does not use race as a category. The number of persons "having an extended migrant background" (mit Migrationshintergrund im weiteren Sinn, meaning having at least one grandparent born outside Germany), is given as 529,000. The Initiative Schwarzer Deutscher ("Black German Initiative") estimates the total of Black Germans to be about 1,000,000 persons.
Netherlands731,444 (2021) First or second generation migration background from Africa. No classification according to skin colour given.
Portugal150,000 (2019) Approximated using statistics on foreign born persons to estimate full and partial descendants based on birth statistics. Most have roots from former Portuguese colonies in Africa. There are over 200,000 Sub Saharan born immigrants in Portugal, majority from the ex-colonies in Africa. This is an estimate, likely a slight overestimate (error: ± 30,000).
Belgium410,000 (2019) Estimate making use of current sub-Saharan born population (240,069) and approximate progeny born and their descendants based on historical migration and birth statistics. Most have roots in the former Belgian colonies of the Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi as well as other French-speaking African countries. This is an estimate, likely a slight overestimate (error: ± 25,000).
Sweden~200,490 (2020)
Sub-Saharan Africans and their descendants, alongside any by racial or mixed race of African heritage are counted. Consists mostly of recent immigrants, refugees, and asylum seekers. Most of them are from Somalia, Eritrea and countries around. Some French and British nationals of African descent can be found in Malmö and Stockholm, as well as many African-Americans in the country playing diverse sports like Basketball that stand in the country for all life. This is a precise census number.
Austria40,000 (2020) Estimate making use of current Sub-Saharan born population (68,843), Caribbean born (21,730) for total foreign born black population (90,573) and approximate progeny born and their descendants based on historical migration and birth statistics. A multiple of 1.4x is used as migration has shorter time background. See here for access to country of birth data. This is a precise estimate .
Republic of Ireland64,639 (2016) Sub-Saharan Africans and their descendants, alongside any by racial or mixed race of African heritage are counted. 2016 Census is used. This is a precise census number.
Denmark52,795 (2019) Sub-Saharan Africans and their descendants, alongside any by racial or mixed race of African heritage are counted. Irregular migrants are counted in this due to the use of the Schengen Information System markers - as overstays are counted as "present" in one given country - and thus the European estimate evens out). This is a precise census number.
Finland46,866 (2019) I.e., according to Statistics Finland, people in Finland:
• whose both parents are Sub-Saharan African-born (SSA; i.e., all other African countries but Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia),
• or whose only known parent was born in SSA,
• or who were born in SSA and whose parents' countries of birth are unknown.
Thus, for example, people with one Finnish parent and one SSA parent or people with more distant SSA ancestry are not included in this country-based non-ethnic figure. Because the figure is country-based, it may include some Sub-Saharan white Africans. Also, SSA-born adoptees' backgrounds are determined by their adoptive parents, not by their biological parents. They are mainly from Somalia, Nigeria, DR Congo, Ethiopia, and Ghana. This is a census number.
Luxembourg30,000 (2019) Estimate making use of current Sub-Saharan born population (18,253) and approximate progeny born and their descendants based on historical migration and birth statistics.
The remaining 14 states of the European Union have fewer than 100,000 individuals of Sub-Saharan African descent all together.
As countries such as Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania and Greece have received little to no immigration from Sub-Saharan Africa or interaction that would have caused the formation of black or mixed race communities. Black populations, inclusive of descendants, mixed race people, and temporary students, number fewer than 10,000 in each of these states.[
