Russia really needs 2 things to fight the long war and potentially win

[SIR ETHNICCEL]

Ya since the start of the war natural gas prices in the US have increased from $2.50 a thousand cubic feet to $8.00. And a lot more LNG export capacity is being built. Meantime in Europe it increased from maybe like $6-7 to $68 a thousand cubic feet. Or something in that range.

Its not been reported on that much but in Asia there was also a massive increase from like $16 or something to $68. As they are having to bid against the Europeans for LNG. I think in Asia its not an energy crisis because they have enough LNG import capacity and other generation. But its costing them huge money.

do you know how much Russia was selling their gas for before all this kicked off?

 

[WizardofSoda]

do you know how much Russia was selling their gas for before all this kicked off?

One non-profit in Europe I saw estimated it. And has been tracking the increased money Russia is getting from the higher prices. I'll see if I can find them. Russia at least when I looked like 2 months ago was getting a lot more money for natural gas despite selling less volume.

The honest truth though is before the war the natural gas wasn't that big in money compared to oil. Like $50 billion natural gas vs. $300 billion for oil, to do a ballpark numbers from memory.

What makes the calculation hard is even if you know the volume of natural gas and the current spot market prices.. there is all these long term contracts.

https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia_counter/?tab=methodology

https://energyandcleanair.org/financing-putins-war/

Here is the links I haven't read through the reports yet to see the before numbers which I think will be there.



Oil is easier to estimate. We know US oil price averaged in 2021 was $68.17 a barrel. For the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil. Then Russia makes 10.1 million barrels a day. So $68.17 * 10,100,000 barrels per day * 365 days = $251 billion.

Even there, there is more factors, like I am presuming Russia gives cheap oil in Russia. For what their internal consumption is which is 3.3 million barrels a day. Then I am guessing Russia has a lot of value added with the oil, like processing it into various products.

But the $251 billion last year gives a rough estimate for the oil. At $100 a barrel oil that jumps to $368 billion.