Unlikely in the short term, not because of diplomacy, but because of deterrence inertia. Both sides know a full exchange is suicide.
But we’ve dismantled arms control, installed dual use systems near Russian borders, and normalized low yield nukes. Russia’s signaling reflects existential threat perception, not bluff. Unlike the Cold War, today’s system is different. There are no red lines, degraded diplomacy, AI in early warning chains. A full scale nuclear exchange remains unlikely but not because cooler heads prevail. It's inertia, not sanity.
We probably won't see Sarmat satan 2 over Washington DC or European capitals. US has fielded W76 2 low yield warheads on Trident subs, they're 5-7 kilotons. These are 'usable' in doctrine, especially in Europe or as a show of force. Russia has similar capabilities, and its doctrine allows tactical use if the regime feels existentially threatened.
