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For you guys to have the energy to read this thread first look at this other thread:
incels.is
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Why we will be saved in 2036? well, we will have android robots that will look indistinguishable from humans. We will be finally free and happy brothers; we will finally find true love. All females will suffer because we will not be their slaves anymore.
First let's talk about Ray Kurzweil and after that about the date. Ray Kurzweil is the most famous futurist, he predicted a lot of things in 1999 for the 2009, 2010s, 2019, 2020s, 2030s and 2045. you can read this paper if you want... here are 100 predictions he made in 1999 for 2009 and in 2004 for 2010:
If you read all of those predictions on that paper and his Reponses in 2010 to why they were all wrong, you can see that in every prediction he copes saying that he was just off by some years, so they are right or that they are right because some companies have shown the prototype of the product but in reality, they took like 5 years to be launched after the prototype was shown in 2010. Now that we are in 2022 and not in 2010 we can see that every prediction he made for 2009 happened in 2014 and every prediction he made for 2010 happened in 2016. Why did this happen?.
Because of Moore's law dying. This video will make you understand:
View: https://youtu.be/RsbPjQ7-HgM
Kurzweil always thought that the sixth paradigm (3d computer chips) would come in 2013 and that there would be no slowing's in technology, that did not happen. Also, he thought that the new paradigm would be at his full speed when it changed.
https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5067661#:~:text=Dr. KURZWEIL: And,at its limit. ).
It is taking 12 years for Moore's law to die. (it started slowing down in 2013 and it will die in 2025)
I don't believe we will go back to this trendline in the 2020s because it is unpredictable how much time it will take the sixth paradigm (3d chips) to reach their full potential. For example, in 2014 we were 2 years behind and in 2017 we were 7 years behind in technology. Gordon Moore predicted that Moore's law would die in 2025. So, this makes it 12 years before Moore's law dies from 2013, 2025 + 12 = 2037. This means that 2037 will be the year that the sixth paradigm reaches its full speed and at this year Moore's law would not affect Kurzweil predictions. The sixth paradigm will start slow but over time it will speed up.
But if it started slowing down in 2013 and the predictions were for 2009 and 2010 why did it affect them?. That is easy, in the past Kurzweil always said and thought that the computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months.
View: https://youtu.be/ikgAId-hWVg
In a 2011 study it was found that this figure was wrong and that it was every 18 months or every 1.57x years. Koomey's Law was created thanks to this study
en.wikipedia.org
www.infoworld.com
So this means that every prediction made by Ray Kurzweil before 2011 will be late by 1.57x.
this guy explains it here
View: https://youtu.be/KDtD7CSJ6m4?t=128
My method is this one:
2009 - 1999 = 10.
10 x 1.57 =15.7
15.7 + 1999 = 2014.
Why 2036? because Ray Kurzweil said that we would have android robots in 2023 and early 2020s.
prediction of his 1999 book page 123
www.docdroid.net
prediction of his 2010 book page 107:
search the world sexbot
Here is the one for 2023 =
2023 - 1999 = 24
24 x 1.57 = 37.68
37.68 + 1999 = 2036.68
He also predicted that we will reverse aging in 2034 which is 2053 with my method
page 22
www.docdroid.net
Kurzweil can't admit that he is wrong because he will lose his credibility
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QROMNOEI3PQ
In my next thread I will talk about emulated AI (sentient) vs simulated AI (non-sentient), Ex machinacels
.
.
.
.
.
For you guys to have the energy to read this thread first look at this other thread:
What do you guys think of these robots made by DS Doll Robotics/EXDoll?
These robots are from a Chinese company, maybe China will invest millions on these and artificial wombs. Compare Harmony to this next robot: View: https://youtu.be/a4vVppz4Q6k https://dsdollrobotics.com/portfolio-item/look-at-her-eyes/ those 2 were from 2018. Some other robots from...
incels.is
.
Why we will be saved in 2036? well, we will have android robots that will look indistinguishable from humans. We will be finally free and happy brothers; we will finally find true love. All females will suffer because we will not be their slaves anymore.
First let's talk about Ray Kurzweil and after that about the date. Ray Kurzweil is the most famous futurist, he predicted a lot of things in 1999 for the 2009, 2010s, 2019, 2020s, 2030s and 2045. you can read this paper if you want... here are 100 predictions he made in 1999 for 2009 and in 2004 for 2010:
If you read all of those predictions on that paper and his Reponses in 2010 to why they were all wrong, you can see that in every prediction he copes saying that he was just off by some years, so they are right or that they are right because some companies have shown the prototype of the product but in reality, they took like 5 years to be launched after the prototype was shown in 2010. Now that we are in 2022 and not in 2010 we can see that every prediction he made for 2009 happened in 2014 and every prediction he made for 2010 happened in 2016. Why did this happen?.
Because of Moore's law dying. This video will make you understand:
View: https://youtu.be/RsbPjQ7-HgM
Kurzweil always thought that the sixth paradigm (3d computer chips) would come in 2013 and that there would be no slowing's in technology, that did not happen. Also, he thought that the new paradigm would be at his full speed when it changed.
https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5067661#:~:text=Dr. KURZWEIL: And,at its limit. ).
It is taking 12 years for Moore's law to die. (it started slowing down in 2013 and it will die in 2025)
I don't believe we will go back to this trendline in the 2020s because it is unpredictable how much time it will take the sixth paradigm (3d chips) to reach their full potential. For example, in 2014 we were 2 years behind and in 2017 we were 7 years behind in technology. Gordon Moore predicted that Moore's law would die in 2025. So, this makes it 12 years before Moore's law dies from 2013, 2025 + 12 = 2037. This means that 2037 will be the year that the sixth paradigm reaches its full speed and at this year Moore's law would not affect Kurzweil predictions. The sixth paradigm will start slow but over time it will speed up.
But if it started slowing down in 2013 and the predictions were for 2009 and 2010 why did it affect them?. That is easy, in the past Kurzweil always said and thought that the computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months.
View: https://youtu.be/ikgAId-hWVg
In a 2011 study it was found that this figure was wrong and that it was every 18 months or every 1.57x years. Koomey's Law was created thanks to this study
Koomey's law - Wikipedia
Koomey's Law: Computing efficiency keeps pace with Moore's Law
Computers have historically doubled in energy efficiency every 18 months, according to new study
So this means that every prediction made by Ray Kurzweil before 2011 will be late by 1.57x.
this guy explains it here
View: https://youtu.be/KDtD7CSJ6m4?t=128
My method is this one:
2009 - 1999 = 10.
10 x 1.57 =15.7
15.7 + 1999 = 2014.
Why 2036? because Ray Kurzweil said that we would have android robots in 2023 and early 2020s.
prediction of his 1999 book page 123
Transcend_ Nine Steps to Living Well Forever ( PDFDrive ) (1).pdf
View and download Transcend_ Nine Steps to Living Well Forever ( PDFDrive ) (1).pdf on DocDroid
www.docdroid.net
prediction of his 2010 book page 107:
search the world sexbot
Here is the one for 2023 =
2023 - 1999 = 24
24 x 1.57 = 37.68
37.68 + 1999 = 2036.68
He also predicted that we will reverse aging in 2034 which is 2053 with my method
page 22
Transcend_ Nine Steps to Living Well Forever ( PDFDrive ) (1).pdf
View and download Transcend_ Nine Steps to Living Well Forever ( PDFDrive ) (1).pdf on DocDroid
www.docdroid.net
Kurzweil can't admit that he is wrong because he will lose his credibility
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QROMNOEI3PQ
In my next thread I will talk about emulated AI (sentient) vs simulated AI (non-sentient), Ex machinacels
