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Encouraged by @Dregster666 who has been helping keep threads going and then making the understanding go deeper.
There is like a 1,500 km frontline that snakes across all this endless farmland in Ukraine. What the Russians are doing is they have a shit load of different types of artillery and their rocket trucks and air strikes they are blasting the Ukrainian defensive positions. In some places like where there is bigger towns the Ukrainians have good defenses, like sand bags, concrete buildings, dug in, probably they go underground in the buildings. And these bigger towns they can have quite a lot of defenders in the town. The Ukrainians can also re-enforce and re-supply along their whole line, as can the Russians. So where Ukraine has these good defenses the Russians aren't advancing, but presumably they are killing Ukrainians slowly.
In other areas the Ukrainians they set up makeshift defenses like in 5 house towns and they dig shitty trenches and don't have many men defending there. But then the Russians are artillery down them, and large numbers of Russian infantry can come in and overwhelm them. Then the Ukrainians have to set up another shitty temporary line further back, and it takes the Russians quite awhile to move their artillery forward. The Ukrainians are worried that the Russians could take these places and then encircle the bigger towns so they couldn't get reinforced.
But the Russians seem to be withdrawing their troops after killing those Ukrainians at shitty temporary positions, and the Russians move the troops elsewhere. Then the Ukrainians retake these small towns, and it goes again. The Russian strategy appears to be to just cause brutal casualties if the Ukrainians are willing to keep doing this. And the Ukrainians don't have much heavy equipment left it appears, they are waiting for NATO equipment, like the Ukrainian's own artillery and rocket trucks and so forth they either have pulled them back to their big cities or are low on them.
Meanwhile Russia has hugely stepped up the pounding of Ukraine with airstrikes and especially cruise missiles across Ukraine. These Russian cruise missiles are very effective. They are hitting infrastructure now. Like rail yards to slow down the flow of NATO weaponry. And they are hitting chemical plants, power utilities, and also hitting Ukrainian military headquarters where Ukrainian military officers are. For the Russian jets they can't reach all the way across Ukraine and fly back, plus doing so would be very dangerous. But the cruise missiles are brutal.
The Ukrainians are saying and it appears to be true the Russians are much more casualty averse now. Like if there is still a fair amount of defenders in a larger village or town, the Russians don't attack with infantry even though they could take it, because they would take significant losses.
The Ukrainians also appear to be getting smarter, they aren't as worried that the Russians are going to surge forward even if the Russians take some of those shitty temporary lines. So the Ukrainians don't have to reinforce those after the Russians pull back from them. The Ukrainians can work on way better more solid defenses further back. The Ukrainian falling morale also forced this as Ukrainians weren't going to keep going to suicidally defend those positions. Same with the Russians they were facing literal mutinies when they were trying to force soldiers to attack into defended towns.
With a solid perimeter along the front lines, the Javelins aren't as dangerous. Because the artillery can sit way back, way, way out of range of the Javelins. The Russians also seem to have gotten good air defenses up so that the Turkish drones the Ukrainians have aren't as threatening to them. Like the Russians appear to be shooting a lot of them down, and Ukraine doesn't have that many.
It seems to me like the USA would be ok with the conflict ending with Russia getting the 4 SE provinces and making them independent Republics allied with Russia. Basically the NWO would get the rest of Ukraine which is 32 million people and Russia would get 8.8 million people in its Ukraine + Crimea which Russia took in 2014 has 2.5 million people. The USA would probably also be ok if Russia gets Kharkiv province 2.6 million and Dnepropetrovsk province 3.1 million. But the USA & co. will make Russia fight all out for those by arming the hell out of the Ukrainians and the USA & co. are already paying for basically the full government of Ukraine's budget, including non-military programs.
I don't think as it currently is that Russia would be able to take those 2 other provinces as there is some big cities in those. And Russia appeared to want to take Odessa province and Mykolaiv province, but I think for those NATO would outright enter the war if necessary. Ukraine needs the ports there.
How NATO is talking about entering the war if they had to was the Polish and Romanian armies would move into Western Ukraine as peacekeepers. They wouldn't try to attack the Russian lines or go near to them. And then the US & UK airpower and then the ground based technology platforms would be placed in there. And the Ukraine army of course would be there, which at this point Ukraine must have a huge standing army.
What Russia wants to do is get control of the DPR and LPR up to the provincial borders. Which they got a fair ways to go for fighting on those. And Ukraine while we blame Zelensky for being a rabid attack dog of the USA, it appears the Ukraine people also aren't willing currently to sign away these 4 SE provinces.
The Russians also are weary that if it goes to a peace deal on the current borders, then the EU and NATO are going to build up Ukraine.
There is like a 1,500 km frontline that snakes across all this endless farmland in Ukraine. What the Russians are doing is they have a shit load of different types of artillery and their rocket trucks and air strikes they are blasting the Ukrainian defensive positions. In some places like where there is bigger towns the Ukrainians have good defenses, like sand bags, concrete buildings, dug in, probably they go underground in the buildings. And these bigger towns they can have quite a lot of defenders in the town. The Ukrainians can also re-enforce and re-supply along their whole line, as can the Russians. So where Ukraine has these good defenses the Russians aren't advancing, but presumably they are killing Ukrainians slowly.
In other areas the Ukrainians they set up makeshift defenses like in 5 house towns and they dig shitty trenches and don't have many men defending there. But then the Russians are artillery down them, and large numbers of Russian infantry can come in and overwhelm them. Then the Ukrainians have to set up another shitty temporary line further back, and it takes the Russians quite awhile to move their artillery forward. The Ukrainians are worried that the Russians could take these places and then encircle the bigger towns so they couldn't get reinforced.
But the Russians seem to be withdrawing their troops after killing those Ukrainians at shitty temporary positions, and the Russians move the troops elsewhere. Then the Ukrainians retake these small towns, and it goes again. The Russian strategy appears to be to just cause brutal casualties if the Ukrainians are willing to keep doing this. And the Ukrainians don't have much heavy equipment left it appears, they are waiting for NATO equipment, like the Ukrainian's own artillery and rocket trucks and so forth they either have pulled them back to their big cities or are low on them.
Meanwhile Russia has hugely stepped up the pounding of Ukraine with airstrikes and especially cruise missiles across Ukraine. These Russian cruise missiles are very effective. They are hitting infrastructure now. Like rail yards to slow down the flow of NATO weaponry. And they are hitting chemical plants, power utilities, and also hitting Ukrainian military headquarters where Ukrainian military officers are. For the Russian jets they can't reach all the way across Ukraine and fly back, plus doing so would be very dangerous. But the cruise missiles are brutal.
The Ukrainians are saying and it appears to be true the Russians are much more casualty averse now. Like if there is still a fair amount of defenders in a larger village or town, the Russians don't attack with infantry even though they could take it, because they would take significant losses.
The Ukrainians also appear to be getting smarter, they aren't as worried that the Russians are going to surge forward even if the Russians take some of those shitty temporary lines. So the Ukrainians don't have to reinforce those after the Russians pull back from them. The Ukrainians can work on way better more solid defenses further back. The Ukrainian falling morale also forced this as Ukrainians weren't going to keep going to suicidally defend those positions. Same with the Russians they were facing literal mutinies when they were trying to force soldiers to attack into defended towns.
With a solid perimeter along the front lines, the Javelins aren't as dangerous. Because the artillery can sit way back, way, way out of range of the Javelins. The Russians also seem to have gotten good air defenses up so that the Turkish drones the Ukrainians have aren't as threatening to them. Like the Russians appear to be shooting a lot of them down, and Ukraine doesn't have that many.
It seems to me like the USA would be ok with the conflict ending with Russia getting the 4 SE provinces and making them independent Republics allied with Russia. Basically the NWO would get the rest of Ukraine which is 32 million people and Russia would get 8.8 million people in its Ukraine + Crimea which Russia took in 2014 has 2.5 million people. The USA would probably also be ok if Russia gets Kharkiv province 2.6 million and Dnepropetrovsk province 3.1 million. But the USA & co. will make Russia fight all out for those by arming the hell out of the Ukrainians and the USA & co. are already paying for basically the full government of Ukraine's budget, including non-military programs.
I don't think as it currently is that Russia would be able to take those 2 other provinces as there is some big cities in those. And Russia appeared to want to take Odessa province and Mykolaiv province, but I think for those NATO would outright enter the war if necessary. Ukraine needs the ports there.
How NATO is talking about entering the war if they had to was the Polish and Romanian armies would move into Western Ukraine as peacekeepers. They wouldn't try to attack the Russian lines or go near to them. And then the US & UK airpower and then the ground based technology platforms would be placed in there. And the Ukraine army of course would be there, which at this point Ukraine must have a huge standing army.
What Russia wants to do is get control of the DPR and LPR up to the provincial borders. Which they got a fair ways to go for fighting on those. And Ukraine while we blame Zelensky for being a rabid attack dog of the USA, it appears the Ukraine people also aren't willing currently to sign away these 4 SE provinces.
The Russians also are weary that if it goes to a peace deal on the current borders, then the EU and NATO are going to build up Ukraine.
