I think Kast will be the next president of Chile, left candidate has no chances of winning.
in first turn:
Jara (left, pro-Boric) wins with 33%, getting most of the support of current Boric government.
Kast (conservative) ends second with 23% of the votes, rival of Jara in second turn.
Kaiser (libertarian-conservative) ends third with 18% of votes, I think he will have a great result, gaining the support of the most integrist Pinochet supporters, the right wingers who rejected the Kast constitution proposition. I don't think he will manage to overpass Kast as some people are saying.
Matthei (cuckservative) ends fourth with 11%, she claims to be a conservative but doesn't oppose to left cultural ideas, I think she will have a bad result.
Parisi ends five with 9% of votes, no chances of winning neither.
Ominami gets a 4% of votes, total failure
No one cares about the other 2 candidates, they will get 2% between both
Second turn:
Kast wins with 58% of votes while Jara gets a 42%.
Reasons why I think Kast will win:
1: Kast is not seen as the most extreme candidate anymore, Johannes Kaiser is a proud Pinochet supporter who calls himself "reactionary", in 2021 election he was seen as too extreme while his rival was seen as more moderated.
2 Jara is a member of communist party while Boric wasn't, being a member of communist party obviously makes people perceive you as radical or extreme, in this election Jara will be perceived as the radical one.
3 Chile content has had a big shift to right since 2021, in 2021, similar to US they had a very left winger social content, partially because of the new constitution supporters marchs in 2020, right now it's the opposite, the propositions of new constitution have been a complete failure and people now see the current constitution as less bad.
4 and most important, Kast has much more potential other candidates voters.
In 2021 this was a great factor in Boric victory, he had the support of provoste and Ominami (percentage of combinated vote of more than 18% or something like that), also much other people voted for him because Kast was seen as extreme.
Kast didn't have open support from other parties, that faggot Sischel refused to endorse him and Parisi only did without much enthusiasm.
Now Kast will have the support of all that 18% of Kaiser supporters, who are the "most radical" right wing faction in Chile, their vote percentage combinated is much higher than Jara and Ominami. I don't know if Matthei and Parisi will endorse Kast (they probably will because the other candidate literally is member of communist party), in any case their voters will side more with Kast than with Jara.
5: Left has no hopes of winning, even their press admits it, and this is a very important factor because their potential voters are not motivated.
in first turn:
Jara (left, pro-Boric) wins with 33%, getting most of the support of current Boric government.
Kast (conservative) ends second with 23% of the votes, rival of Jara in second turn.
Kaiser (libertarian-conservative) ends third with 18% of votes, I think he will have a great result, gaining the support of the most integrist Pinochet supporters, the right wingers who rejected the Kast constitution proposition. I don't think he will manage to overpass Kast as some people are saying.
Matthei (cuckservative) ends fourth with 11%, she claims to be a conservative but doesn't oppose to left cultural ideas, I think she will have a bad result.
Parisi ends five with 9% of votes, no chances of winning neither.
Ominami gets a 4% of votes, total failure
No one cares about the other 2 candidates, they will get 2% between both
Second turn:
Kast wins with 58% of votes while Jara gets a 42%.
Reasons why I think Kast will win:
1: Kast is not seen as the most extreme candidate anymore, Johannes Kaiser is a proud Pinochet supporter who calls himself "reactionary", in 2021 election he was seen as too extreme while his rival was seen as more moderated.
2 Jara is a member of communist party while Boric wasn't, being a member of communist party obviously makes people perceive you as radical or extreme, in this election Jara will be perceived as the radical one.
3 Chile content has had a big shift to right since 2021, in 2021, similar to US they had a very left winger social content, partially because of the new constitution supporters marchs in 2020, right now it's the opposite, the propositions of new constitution have been a complete failure and people now see the current constitution as less bad.
4 and most important, Kast has much more potential other candidates voters.
In 2021 this was a great factor in Boric victory, he had the support of provoste and Ominami (percentage of combinated vote of more than 18% or something like that), also much other people voted for him because Kast was seen as extreme.
Kast didn't have open support from other parties, that faggot Sischel refused to endorse him and Parisi only did without much enthusiasm.
Now Kast will have the support of all that 18% of Kaiser supporters, who are the "most radical" right wing faction in Chile, their vote percentage combinated is much higher than Jara and Ominami. I don't know if Matthei and Parisi will endorse Kast (they probably will because the other candidate literally is member of communist party), in any case their voters will side more with Kast than with Jara.
5: Left has no hopes of winning, even their press admits it, and this is a very important factor because their potential voters are not motivated.
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