India production growth 2011-2021

[WizardofSoda]

India population growth 2011-2021: 11.9%

India electrical production growth 2011-2021: 65.8%
India oil consumption growth 2011-2021: 40.3%

India steel production growth 2011-2021: 44.9%
India cement consumption growth 2011-2021: 51.7%


India is still shit poor compared to rich countries, but what matters for developing is comparing to itself. The population growth in the next decade for India isn't going to be as high maybe like 5-6%. Shitty developing countries they get like 20% growth in production, but their population also grew by 20% so they made no progress per capita. You can see India is making huge progress per capita.

I am expecting in 50 years India is going to reach UK levels for per capita electric use. In 20-30 years India's population will likely be declining. India could add like 100-200 million more people before its population starts declining. So even India's population is declining like 25 years from now India isn't remotely going to be worried about depopulation. Even if the population was declining at that point there still will be huge movement of people from the rural areas to the cities.

 

[THE TRUE DIGLET]

 

[WizardofSoda]

I like the white trans face and the smiling horses.

 

[LesscoBlob]

India population growth 2011-2021: 11.9%

India electrical production growth 2011-2021: 65.8%
India oil consumption growth 2011-2021: 40.3%

India steel production growth 2011-2021: 44.9%
India cement consumption growth 2011-2021: 51.7%


India is still shit poor compared to rich countries, but what matters for developing is comparing to itself. The population growth in the next decade for India isn't going to be as high maybe like 5-6%. Shitty developing countries they get like 20% growth in production, but their population also grew by 20% so they made no progress per capita. You can see India is making huge progress per capita.

I am expecting in 50 years India is going to reach UK levels for per capita electric use. In 20-30 years India's population will likely be declining. India could add like 100-200 million more people before its population starts declining. So even India's population is declining like 25 years from now India isn't remotely going to be worried about depopulation.

India won't add up any more people. Their fertility rate is now below replacement. Its population won't decline, because their population is young, but eventually it will. What India needs to do is become a DEVELOPED country, before its population starts to decline. Otherwise, they'll end up like Thailand. A country permanately stuck in the developing stage, because now its TFR in well below replacement.

 

[WizardofSoda]

India won't add up any more people. Their fertility rate is now below replacement. Its population won't decline, because their population is young, but eventually it will. What India needs to do is become a DEVELOPED country, before its population starts to decline. Otherwise, they'll end up like Thailand. A country permanately stuck in the developing stage, because now its TFR in well below replacement.

Very interesting point. It could well be that India ends up like Thailand is now.

 

[WizardofSoda]

If you look in 2021 the fertility rate in India was 2.03 (replacement is 2.10). But India still added 9.8 million people from births minus deaths because like you said the population is still young. I don't know how many people emigrate from India per year. It might not be as many as we think, like 1 million per year.

Thats why I did a very rough estimate of adding 100-200 million more people, before it goes into population decline. And assuming the birthrate keeps falling.

 

[LesscoBlob]

Very interesting point. It could well be that India ends up like Thailand is now.

I'm fearful that this is going to be the future for a lot of third world countries. The only true third world country that managed to mostly ascend before its TFR plummeted is China. I guess you could technically count South Korea, but that's also because Americans helped build the country's economy.
Across the world, there's been a sharp decline in TFRs which is actually worse than what demographers predicted. When I read the UN's estimate on the world's population reaching 11 BILLION people in 2100, I found it realistic, but now more and more demographers are saying that the world's population could completely reach stagnation by 2060.

World's population could plummet to 6 billion by the end of the century, study suggests

A new model has predicted that Earth's population is likely to decrease in all scenarios across the next century and will peak nowhere near the 11 billion previously forecast.

www.livescience.com

I also had hopes for Turkey, but it's TFR is also 1.9 now.

 

[Govid_Dorious]

The West needs Gilead style totalitarian patriarchy, but what curryland needs is extreme radical feminism and lookism to reduce the birth rate to 0

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-have-29-mln-more-people-than-china-by-mid-2023-un-estimate-shows-2023-04-19/

incels.is

 

[WizardofSoda]

I'm fearful that this is going to be the future for a lot of third world countries. The only true third world country that managed to mostly ascend before its TFR plummeted is China. I guess you could technically count South Korea, but that's also because Americans helped build the country's economy.
Across the world, there's been a sharp decline in TFRs which is actually worse than what demographers predicted. When I read the UN's estimate on the world's population reaching 11 BILLION people in 2100, I found it realistic, but now more and more demographers are saying that the world's population could completely reach stagnation by 2060.

World's population could plummet to 6 billion by the end of the century, study suggests

A new model has predicted that Earth's population is likely to decrease in all scenarios across the next century and will peak nowhere near the 11 billion previously forecast.

www.livescience.com

I also had hopes for Turkey, but it's TFR is also 1.9 now.

Ya the estimate for Turkey I have for 2021 fertility rate is 1.70. This from the Wikipedia Demographics of Turkey page.

Something is way I look at countries like Thailand is they actually are arguably developed countries. If you look at its electrical production per capita and oil use per capita as examples look at this comparison.

UK 2021 electrical use per capita: 4,623 kwh
Thailand 2021 electrical use per capita: 2,664 kwh

UK 2021 oil use per person: 6.7 barrels
Thailand 2021 oil use per person: 6.7 barrels


UK 2021 nominal GDP per capita: $46,500
Thailand 2021 nominal GDP per capita: $8,100

UK 2021 PPP GDP per capita: $45,000
Thailand 2021 PPP GDP per capita: $17,100


Its that nominal GDP number that all these countries including like Russia get hammered on. Thats why your India possibility seems so realistic to me, is I could see India catching up to the UK in production per capita. But still having a low nominal GDP. But a relatively higher PPP GDP.

 

[WizardofSoda]

Across the world, there's been a sharp decline in TFRs which is actually worse than what demographers predicted. When I read the UN's estimate on the world's population reaching 11 BILLION people in 2100, I found it realistic, but now more and more demographers are saying that the world's population could completely reach stagnation by 2060.

Ya its interesting how the TFR's have had a sharp decline. It could then be centuries of decline after 2060. Because a generation is only 25 years it can be radical how far it goes. Like a fertility rate of 1.575 doesn't sound that bad, I chose it because its 75% of replacement of 2.10. The EU average is currently 1.50. And the Russian level is also 1.50.

So what would 75% of replacement be over say 250 years. Say 8 generations and then an extra 50 years to work through the population numbers. That would mean a 90% fall in population over those 250 years in that case. Possibly from 9 billion to 900 million.

 

[LesscoBlob]

Ya its interesting how the TFR's have had a sharp decline. It could then be centuries of decline after 2060. Because a generation is only 25 years it can be radical how far it goes. Like a fertility rate of 1.575 doesn't sound that bad, I chose it because its 75% of replacement of 2.10. The EU average is currently 1.50. And the Russian level is also 1.50.

So what would 75% of replacement be over say 250 years. Say 8 generations and then an extra 50 years to work through the population numbers. That would mean a 90% fall in population over those 250 years in that case. Possibly from 9 billion to 900 million.

It's possible that the world's population may go lower than 7 billion by 2100.

 

[WizardofSoda]

It's possible that the world's population may go lower than 7 billion by 2100.

The main question is how fast the fertility rates fall in Africa. Thats why I think we should spend any amount of money to develop Africa, and not loans, just outright paying for building infrastructure there and operating schools and medical systems. I would divide it up like in colonialism with each NATO and NE Asian country being responsible for areas.

 

[jeetcel]

India won't add up any more people. Their fertility rate is now below replacement. Its population won't decline, because their population is young, but eventually it will. What India needs to do is become a DEVELOPED country, before its population starts to decline. Otherwise, they'll end up like Thailand. A country permanately stuck in the developing stage, because now its TFR in well below replacement.

so can we expect Indian Ladyboys in 30 some years ?
also how would the world react to that, as thai ladyboys at least have some good reputation among those kind of perverts

 

[LesscoBlob]

so can we expect Indian Ladyboys in 30 some years ?
also how would the world react to that, as thai ladyboys at least have some good reputation among those kind of perverts

I'm not sure. I suppose it's possible, although I don't think India will ever actually get a very good reputation from that.

 

[KetamineAddictYoda]

India must still worry about an ageing and shrinking population. Even moreso than others since India is a poorer country that can't as easily supplement missing children with automation and migrants. The good thing is that they had a gradual decline in birth rates rather than a rapid drop like China so they will have time to adjust.

 

[WizardofSoda]

India must still worry about an ageing and shrinking population. Even moreso than others since India is a poorer country that can't as easily supplement missing children with automation and migrants. The good thing is that they had a gradual decline in birth rates rather than a rapid drop like China so they will have time to adjust.

Ya like India has a lot of children still being born. So we know in 20 years they are going to have a lot of 20 year olds. Then they work for like 45 years until age 65. By then I can only imagine automation will be that much more powerful and cheaper.

 

[PopeOfCope]

Very nice. Now let's see the production of shit streets count.

 

[currycel⁰]

Lundia is a irreversible shithole

 

[KetamineAddictYoda]

Ya like India has a lot of children still being born.

Not anymore. Birth rates are sub-replacement and expected to continue decreasing.