I noticed that i made an error on my last thread about android robots on the computational price efficiency after reading more of the Koomey's law study
First i just want to talk about why android robots can't have rights if you give them a non-sentient AI
there are 2 types of AI:
a simulated AI: A simulated ai would mimic the behavior of humans (software), but it would not mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and therefore would not be sentient
an emulated AI: an emulated ai would mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and behavior of humans (software), therefore it would be sentient
http://www.gavinjensen.com/blog/2018/ai-simulation-emulation
There have been many series and media portraying android robots as "sentient" or "alive", all of that is bullshit. Why? You cannot replicate sentience by just programming a robot, to replicate sentience you would need to scan the whole human brain and copy it into a machine, even then I don't believe it will be possible because I still think that you need a biological brain to create it.
What makes a human different from a pile of plastic? we are made of cells, machines are made of minerals and non-living matter
A non-sentient android robot will just be a piece of plastic imitating a human because it will not be made of cells but instead of minerals and non-living matter
So, we can have android robots that have a simulated AI because they will not be alive, and they can't have rights because they are not living beings.
We will have android robots that will look indistinguishable from humans in 2032 and reverse aging technologies in 2052 to not die of old age
First let's talk about Ray Kurzweil and then about the dates, thanks to this guy we know the 2032 and 2052 dates. Ray Kurzweil is the most famous futurist, he predicted a lot of things in 1999 for 2009, 2010s, 2019, 2020s, 2030s and 2045. Here is a 2010 paper of him talking about how his 1999 predictions for 2009 and 2010 went:
https://kurzweilai.net/images/How-My-Predictions-Are-Faring.pdf
In every prediction he copes saying that he was just off by some years, so they are right or that they are right because some companies have shown the prototype of the product but in reality, they took like 5-7 years to be launched after the prototype was shown in 2010, If you read all of the 1999 predictions on that 2010 paper i linked called "how my predictions are faring", you can see that every prediction he made in 1999 for 2009 happened in 2015 and every prediction he made in 2004 for 2010 happened in 2017, 99 percent of them were all right but late, there are 2 reasons why this happened:
1-all of his predictions are late by 1.52x due to Kurzweil believing in 1999 and 2004 that computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months but in a 2011 study it was found that it was every 18 months (1.52 years)
2-the slow death of the fifth paradigm (Moore's law) started slowing down technology
1-all of his predictions are late by 1.52x
in the past Kurzweil always said and thought that the computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months as you can see in this video:
In a 2011 study it was found that this figure was wrong and that it was every 18 months (1.52 years)
"Computations per kilowatt-hour doubled every 1.57 years over the entire analysis period, a rate of improvement only slightly slower than that for PCs, which saw efficiency double every 1.52 years from 1975 to 2009 (see Figure 4)"
https://www.researchgate.net/public...nds_in_the_Electrical_Efficiency_of_Computing
So this means that the predictions made by Ray Kurzweil will be late by 1.52x, Kurzweil can't admit that he was wrong because he would lose all his credibility, this guy explains it here:
When we increase 2009 by 1.52, we get 2014.2 instead of 2015 and when we increase 2010 by 1.52, we get 2015.72 instead of 2017 because of the second reason:
2009 - 1999 = 10______________________2010 - 1999 = 11
10 x 1.52 = 15.2_______________________11 x 1.52 = 16.72
15.2 + 1999 = 2014.2_________________16.72 + 1999 = 2015.72
2-the slow death of the fifth paradigm (Moore's law) started slowing down technology, this video explains it:
View: https://youtu.be/RsbPjQ7-HgM
Kurzweil always thought that the sixth paradigm (3d computer chips) would come in 2013 and that there would be no slowing's in technology, that did not happen:
https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5067661#:~:text=Dr. KURZWEIL: And,at its limit.
so, to calculate what should have happened in 2014 and 2015 if the slow death of the fifth paradigm of computing never slowed down technology, we can use these graphs i made using the performance and development trendline that Kartik Gada modified in his supercomputing video:
as you can see in the graphs above, everything that happened technologically in 2015 should have happened in 2014.2 and everything that happened technologically in 2017 should have happened in 2015.72 if the slow death of Moore's law never slowed down technology, so now we know why everything that Kurzweil predicted for 2009 and 2010 happened in 2015 and 2017
Now you need to understand that the fifth paradigm will completely die in 2025, the creator of Moore's law said that Moore's law would die in 2025 and every year Moore's law is getting slower:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore...4] expect Moore's law will end by around 2025.
we know a new paradigm will be created after Moore's law dies because there have already been 5 technology paradigms in the past, Kurzweil has talked about them. here is why i think that we will go back to the original trendline of where we are supposed to be technologically before 2030:
look at this image made by Kurzweil using old data and old sources and look at the year 1960:
as you can see there was a huge increase in less than one year in 1960 which implies that a new paradigm can get us back to the trendline very fast, in less than one year, we also have another evidence of it on this other image made by him, look at 1962:
So, I just think that we will get back to the trendline before 2030 and that is why we can use the 1.52x method to calculate things after 2030 without using the performance development graph
I got this idea by reading one of the comments on his supercomputing videos:
Ok so now we can go back to the 2032 android robot and 2052 reverse aging technologies to not die of old age prediction, now that we have a method to know when a prediction of him will happen
in his 1999 book called the age of spiritual machines on page 107 he predicted that we would have sexbots by the start of the third decade of the new century, which would be 2021:
i know that the word sexbot does not sound like android robot but in his 2009 book called transcend on page 123 he talked more about what kind of things we would have in 2023 and he talked more about these sexbots:
so as you can see they will be android robots because they will look indistinguishable from humans (the reason why he wrote 2023 was because he wanted to talk about a year where many other technologies would be there, he didn't only talk about android robots on that book, he talked about other technologies, medical devices and other things that would be there in 2023)
so, we can use the 1.52x method with 2021 because by that time in our timeline the sixth paradigm will be at his full speed, we will be back in the trendline and where we are supposed to be technologically in that trendline, so the method for 2021 would be:
2021 - 1999 = 22
22 x 1.52 = 33.44
33.44 + 1999 = 2032.44
so, we will have android robots in 2032
what about the 2052 reverse aging prediction to not die of old age?
so as you can see he says that age reversal is a reality in 2034, 2034 would be 2052:
2034 - 1999 = 35
35 x 1.52 = 53.2
53.2 + 1999 = 2052.2
so as you can see we will be able to reverse aging in 2052
a quarter of a century is 25 years, unfortunately Ray might die of old age before the slow aging technologies that will come in the 2030s (read 2023 in the image above again) and the reverse aging technologies that will come in 2052, because of his predictions being late by 1.52x and the fifth paradigm slowing down things temporarily for him to not even be able to get the slow down aging technologies, we will go back to the trendline before 2030 so we will be able to have slow down aging technologies in the 2030s and reverse aging technologies in 2052
Here is the method for 2023:
2023 - 1999 = 24
24 x 1.52 = 36.48
36.48 + 1999 = 2035.48
(1999) the age of spiritual machines book:
(2005) the singularity is near book:
https://paisdospuntocero.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/book-kurzweil-singularity-is-near-1.pdf
(2009) transcend book:
https://www.docdroid.net/3pBqeUW/transcend-nine-steps-to-living-well-forever-pdfdrive-1-pdf#page=22
(2009) transcend book pdfdrive:
https://www.pdfdrive.com/transcend-nine-steps-to-living-well-forever-e188845476.html
@Robtical @BookwormCel @Randy Bull @Shinichi @EnterTheVoid
First i just want to talk about why android robots can't have rights if you give them a non-sentient AI
there are 2 types of AI:
a simulated AI: A simulated ai would mimic the behavior of humans (software), but it would not mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and therefore would not be sentient
an emulated AI: an emulated ai would mimic the shape, composition and mechanisms of the human brain (hardware) and behavior of humans (software), therefore it would be sentient
http://www.gavinjensen.com/blog/2018/ai-simulation-emulation
There have been many series and media portraying android robots as "sentient" or "alive", all of that is bullshit. Why? You cannot replicate sentience by just programming a robot, to replicate sentience you would need to scan the whole human brain and copy it into a machine, even then I don't believe it will be possible because I still think that you need a biological brain to create it.
What makes a human different from a pile of plastic? we are made of cells, machines are made of minerals and non-living matter
A non-sentient android robot will just be a piece of plastic imitating a human because it will not be made of cells but instead of minerals and non-living matter
So, we can have android robots that have a simulated AI because they will not be alive, and they can't have rights because they are not living beings.
We will have android robots that will look indistinguishable from humans in 2032 and reverse aging technologies in 2052 to not die of old age
First let's talk about Ray Kurzweil and then about the dates, thanks to this guy we know the 2032 and 2052 dates. Ray Kurzweil is the most famous futurist, he predicted a lot of things in 1999 for 2009, 2010s, 2019, 2020s, 2030s and 2045. Here is a 2010 paper of him talking about how his 1999 predictions for 2009 and 2010 went:
https://kurzweilai.net/images/How-My-Predictions-Are-Faring.pdf
In every prediction he copes saying that he was just off by some years, so they are right or that they are right because some companies have shown the prototype of the product but in reality, they took like 5-7 years to be launched after the prototype was shown in 2010, If you read all of the 1999 predictions on that 2010 paper i linked called "how my predictions are faring", you can see that every prediction he made in 1999 for 2009 happened in 2015 and every prediction he made in 2004 for 2010 happened in 2017, 99 percent of them were all right but late, there are 2 reasons why this happened:
1-all of his predictions are late by 1.52x due to Kurzweil believing in 1999 and 2004 that computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months but in a 2011 study it was found that it was every 18 months (1.52 years)
2-the slow death of the fifth paradigm (Moore's law) started slowing down technology
1-all of his predictions are late by 1.52x
in the past Kurzweil always said and thought that the computational price efficiency doubled every 12 months as you can see in this video:
In a 2011 study it was found that this figure was wrong and that it was every 18 months (1.52 years)
"Computations per kilowatt-hour doubled every 1.57 years over the entire analysis period, a rate of improvement only slightly slower than that for PCs, which saw efficiency double every 1.52 years from 1975 to 2009 (see Figure 4)"
https://www.researchgate.net/public...nds_in_the_Electrical_Efficiency_of_Computing
So this means that the predictions made by Ray Kurzweil will be late by 1.52x, Kurzweil can't admit that he was wrong because he would lose all his credibility, this guy explains it here:
When we increase 2009 by 1.52, we get 2014.2 instead of 2015 and when we increase 2010 by 1.52, we get 2015.72 instead of 2017 because of the second reason:
2009 - 1999 = 10______________________2010 - 1999 = 11
10 x 1.52 = 15.2_______________________11 x 1.52 = 16.72
15.2 + 1999 = 2014.2_________________16.72 + 1999 = 2015.72
2-the slow death of the fifth paradigm (Moore's law) started slowing down technology, this video explains it:
View: https://youtu.be/RsbPjQ7-HgM
Kurzweil always thought that the sixth paradigm (3d computer chips) would come in 2013 and that there would be no slowing's in technology, that did not happen:
https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5067661#:~:text=Dr. KURZWEIL: And,at its limit.
so, to calculate what should have happened in 2014 and 2015 if the slow death of the fifth paradigm of computing never slowed down technology, we can use these graphs i made using the performance and development trendline that Kartik Gada modified in his supercomputing video:
as you can see in the graphs above, everything that happened technologically in 2015 should have happened in 2014.2 and everything that happened technologically in 2017 should have happened in 2015.72 if the slow death of Moore's law never slowed down technology, so now we know why everything that Kurzweil predicted for 2009 and 2010 happened in 2015 and 2017
Now you need to understand that the fifth paradigm will completely die in 2025, the creator of Moore's law said that Moore's law would die in 2025 and every year Moore's law is getting slower:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore...4] expect Moore's law will end by around 2025.
we know a new paradigm will be created after Moore's law dies because there have already been 5 technology paradigms in the past, Kurzweil has talked about them. here is why i think that we will go back to the original trendline of where we are supposed to be technologically before 2030:
look at this image made by Kurzweil using old data and old sources and look at the year 1960:
as you can see there was a huge increase in less than one year in 1960 which implies that a new paradigm can get us back to the trendline very fast, in less than one year, we also have another evidence of it on this other image made by him, look at 1962:
So, I just think that we will get back to the trendline before 2030 and that is why we can use the 1.52x method to calculate things after 2030 without using the performance development graph
I got this idea by reading one of the comments on his supercomputing videos:
Ok so now we can go back to the 2032 android robot and 2052 reverse aging technologies to not die of old age prediction, now that we have a method to know when a prediction of him will happen
in his 1999 book called the age of spiritual machines on page 107 he predicted that we would have sexbots by the start of the third decade of the new century, which would be 2021:
i know that the word sexbot does not sound like android robot but in his 2009 book called transcend on page 123 he talked more about what kind of things we would have in 2023 and he talked more about these sexbots:
so as you can see they will be android robots because they will look indistinguishable from humans (the reason why he wrote 2023 was because he wanted to talk about a year where many other technologies would be there, he didn't only talk about android robots on that book, he talked about other technologies, medical devices and other things that would be there in 2023)
so, we can use the 1.52x method with 2021 because by that time in our timeline the sixth paradigm will be at his full speed, we will be back in the trendline and where we are supposed to be technologically in that trendline, so the method for 2021 would be:
2021 - 1999 = 22
22 x 1.52 = 33.44
33.44 + 1999 = 2032.44
so, we will have android robots in 2032
what about the 2052 reverse aging prediction to not die of old age?
so as you can see he says that age reversal is a reality in 2034, 2034 would be 2052:
2034 - 1999 = 35
35 x 1.52 = 53.2
53.2 + 1999 = 2052.2
so as you can see we will be able to reverse aging in 2052
a quarter of a century is 25 years, unfortunately Ray might die of old age before the slow aging technologies that will come in the 2030s (read 2023 in the image above again) and the reverse aging technologies that will come in 2052, because of his predictions being late by 1.52x and the fifth paradigm slowing down things temporarily for him to not even be able to get the slow down aging technologies, we will go back to the trendline before 2030 so we will be able to have slow down aging technologies in the 2030s and reverse aging technologies in 2052
Here is the method for 2023:
2023 - 1999 = 24
24 x 1.52 = 36.48
36.48 + 1999 = 2035.48
(1999) the age of spiritual machines book:
(2005) the singularity is near book:
https://paisdospuntocero.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/book-kurzweil-singularity-is-near-1.pdf
(2009) transcend book:
https://www.docdroid.net/3pBqeUW/transcend-nine-steps-to-living-well-forever-pdfdrive-1-pdf#page=22
(2009) transcend book pdfdrive:
https://www.pdfdrive.com/transcend-nine-steps-to-living-well-forever-e188845476.html
@Robtical @BookwormCel @Randy Bull @Shinichi @EnterTheVoid
