News Russia's offensive plans for 2024 (New York Times/ISW)

[wereq]

These are the directions of attack which have developed over the last year along which Russia seeks to make gains:

1. Avdeevka: 50k troops
2. Marinka + Novomykhailivka + Vuhledar: 40k troops
3. Robotyne + Zaporizhzhia: 100k troops
4. Bakhmut: 60k troops
5. Kreminna + Siversk: 110k troops

Source: NYT: https://archive.ph/b9emx/again

• Marinka + Novomykhailivka direction of offensive in the South Donetsk region is aimed at taking the Ukrainian stronghold of Vuhledar which Russia has failed to take several times last year.
• 
• Avdeevka success and taking of Chasov Yar will push Russians to encircle strongholds of Zalizne, Toretsk and Niu York which would eventually lead them to build an attack on Konstyantynivka.
• 
• Some Bakmut troops could also branch out north and build their offensive in the Siversk direction. In this direction, there's good chance of Serebryanka forest coming under total control as well. Either way, expect the Russian frontline gap to Siversk to close.

Aside from all these movements, I also expect an additional offensive in the Kupyansk direction in Kharkiv region.

@NorthernWind @supersoldier @CobsonCel @TBIcel

 

[Puppeter]

7 years to take 2 villages should have been in the balkans and occupied turkey

 

[wereq]

7 years to take 2 villages should have been in the balkans and occupied turkey

What 7 years nigga? Russian invasion started in 2022. Siege of Avdeevka only began last year.

 

[wereq]

Forgot to tag @LesscoBlob

 

[LesscoBlob]

7 years to take 2 villages should have been in the balkans and occupied turkey

10 years, since 2014.

 

[wereq]

10 years, since 2014.

This is factually wrong.

 

[KillNiggers]

And how is Ukraine going to respond?

 

[kay']

 

[wereq]

And how is Ukraine going to respond?

If they don't get ammo, they will have to retreat.

 

[KillNiggers]

If they don't get ammo, they will have to retreat.

It's ovER for them tbh.

 

[StonePath]

If they don't get ammo, they will have to retreat.

When is Kyiv going to be captured

 

[LesscoBlob]

This is factually wrong.

Nope.

 

[wereq]

Nope.

Invasion started in 2022 and siege of Avdeevka and Vuhledar only began last year.

 

[wereq]

When is Kyiv going to be captured

Not in the very near future. Maybe 5 to 7 years from now.

 

[LesscoBlob]

Invasion started in 2022 and siege of Avdeevka and Vuhledar only began last year.

The Russian proxy in Ukraine started in 2014.

 

[wereq]

The Russian proxy in Ukraine started in 2014.

Those were separatist fighters who were backed by Russia. They weren't Russian soldiers. Russian soldiers only poured in upon Putin declaring his invasion in 2022.

 

[LesscoBlob]

Those were separatist fighters who were backed by Russia.

So ethnic Russians.

. Russian soldiers only poured in upon Putin declaring his invasion in 2022.

Still Russian fighters.

 

[wereq]

So ethnic Russians.

Ukrainians are ethnically Russian too. They speak Russian. That is not my point. My point is that the Russian government only started their operations in 2022 so its unfair and totally inaccurate to make it look like they've been fighting since 2014 because there were no soldiers of the Russian government fighting in 2014, only separatists. Separatists are militias. They didn't have the training, full scale logistical support, and artillery resources that the Russian army has had since 2022.

 

[supersoldier]

Those were separatist fighters who were backed by Russia. They weren't Russian soldiers. Russian soldiers only poured in upon Putin declaring his invasion in 2022.

they used regular army without insignia, but in small quantities

 

[Uncle Death]

Ukrainians are ethnically Russian too. They speak Russian. That is not my point. My point is that the Russian government only started their operations in 2022 so its unfair and totally inaccurate to make it look like they've been fighting since 2014 because there were no soldiers of the Russian government fighting in 2014, only separatists. Separatists are militias. They didn't have the training, full scale logistical support, and artillery resources that the Russian army has had since 2022.

This guy is such a jewkraine shill. You are right wereq, Ukraine are fuck

 

[LesscoBlob]

Ukrainians are ethnically Russian too. They speak Russian.

OK, you're a Putin loving autist. Ukrainians are a separate ethnicity from Russians.

 

[wereq]

This guy is such a jewkraine shill.

A bit too much really. Even Ukraine supporters are gloomy now.

 

[wereq]

Ukrainians are a separate ethnicity from Russians.

no

 

[wereq]

but in small quantities

Much smaller. They didn't have aerial support, drones, reconnaissance, etc.

 

[LesscoBlob]

no

yes they are. You wouldn't know about it.

 

[LesscoBlob]

Much smaller. They didn't have aerial support, drones, reconnaissance, etc.

Of course they didn't. This is Russia we're talking about.

 

[wereq]

Of course they didn't. This is Russia we're talking about.

Russian soldiers have had these things since 2022, but not Russian separatists.

 

[LesscoBlob]

Russian soldiers have had these things since 2022, but not Russian separatists.

Of course, eventually Russia would be able to actually give proper aerial support. 7 years later.

 

[wereq]

Of course, eventually Russia would be able to actually give proper aerial support. 7 years later.

Had Russia given aerial support to separatists, it would've signaled Russia's military entry into Donbass conflict which wasn't the case until 2022.

 

[juche necromancer]

OK, you're a Putin loving autist. Ukrainians are a separate ethnicity from Russians.

Imagine basing your ethnic identity on the word "Borderland" jfl

 

[LesscoBlob]

Imagine basing your ethnic identity on the word "Borderland" jfl

I don't get it.

 

[proudjokER]

might as well just sit there and wait for now

much more efficient with this form of stagnant warfare (see: WW1)

 

[juche necromancer]

I don't get it.

Etymological origin of the word Ukraine is the old slavic word вкра́ина, meaning borderland.

 

[juche necromancer]

When is Kyiv going to be captured

Never, it was never the intention to capture it anyway. It will remain the capital of the fragmented Khokhol failed state.

 

[supersoldier]

Ukrainians are a separate ethnicity from Russians.

maybe Westerm ones are but eastern and central ones are mostly larping/playing a role of Ukrainian , when there is a critical situation they start speaking Russian immediately

 

[wereq]

maybe Westerm ones are but eastern and central ones are mostly larping/playing a role of Ukrainian , when there is a critical situation they start speaking Russian immediately

Exactly! I'd read that even in the West they speak Russian quite a bit of the time. Even the soldiers speak Russian!

 

[LesscoBlob]

Etymological origin of the word Ukraine is the old slavic word вкра́ина, meaning borderland.

Based.

 

[LesscoBlob]

Exactly! I'd read that even in the West they speak Russian quite a bit of the time. Even the soldiers speak Russian!

They speak Ukrainian.

 

[NorthernWind]

7 years to take 2 villages should have been in the balkans and occupied turkey

Ukrainian counteroffensive failed completely yet the West believed that it's success will push Russia towards negotiations.

 

[NorthernWind]

So ethnic Russians.

Still Russian fighters.

Why it's Okay for ethnic Albanians to fight for independence but not for ethnic Russians?

 

[wereq]

Ukrainian counteroffensive failed completely yet the West believed that it's success will push Russia towards negotiations.

No they're not under delusions of success anymore. They're all gloom and doom now.

 

[NorthernWind]

maybe Westerm ones are but eastern and central ones are mostly larping/playing a role of Ukrainian , when there is a critical situation they start speaking Russian immediately

When I visited Western Ukraine, I constantly heard Russian language.

 

[wereq]

When I visited Western Ukraine, I constantly heard Russian language.

 

[LesscoBlob]

Why it's Okay for ethnic Albanians to fight for independence but not for ethnic Russians?

It isn't. Analbanians are subhuman.

 

[Awake]

very good russia

 

[Mortis]

Just move to russia and go die for putler at this point. You're like one of those curries that suck isreal off.

"SAAAAAR KIEV IN 2 WEEKS SAAAAAAAAR"

 

[wereq]

You're like one of those curries that suck isreal off.

I hate Israel.

 

[Mortis]

I hate Israel.

It was an analogy.

 

[Jordon Peterson9900]

Hope russia destroys ukraine soon. I hate that faggot zelensky dog

 

[NorthernWind]

Don't forget that Ukrainian army was trained by nato scum. And showing poor results...