World economy actually growing nicely

[WizardofSoda]

In stocks with all the bad stuff going on in the world, nearly all the commenters on stock forums are pessimistic for the economy and the markets. I'm one of the few who is optimistic all the time. Thing is there are these vast areas of the world that are growing fast.

-MENA; Middle East & North Africa
-China

-ASEAN; Southeast Asia
-India

-Latin America isn't growing fast, but they are growing albeit slowly
-CIS & Central Asian; the ex-Soviet Union countries same thing growing slowly
-Sub-Saharan Africa is a train wreck but it was before too

-North America
-Europe
-Japan, South Korea & Taiwan


For our mega corporations its not that everybody has to be growing great all the time.

 

[IncelusRex]

I wonder how many more years of growth at this scale will be possible before the world's resources are extinguished. At some point it should start diminishing significantly since the economic growth is exponential.

 

[WizardofSoda]

I wonder how many more years of growth at this scale will be possible before the world's resources are extinguished. At some point it should start diminishing significantly since the economic growth is exponential.

In the USA for the last 20 years we aren't using more electricity or oil. I think it goes back quite a bit further for oil actually. It goes way back for cement, steel, aluminum where we aren't using more per year.

So how has the US economy been growing not using more resources. Thats when we went into the information age, where the value is coming from knowledge as opposed to increasing production. There are other things we are doing like increasing durability of products through materials science and other technology. There is also increasing efficiency, like cars are getting more miles per gallon over time.

So if you get a car that lasts twice as long, and gets twice the miles per gallon as before, that is another pathway to economic growth. There is also hard to define qualitative improvements. Like a car with more safety is more valuable.

The US actually has less farmland under cultivation today than in 1900, even though we have more than 4 times the population. Because crop yields per acre have risen faster than population over that time.

 

[IncelusRex]

In the USA for the last 20 years we aren't using more electricity or oil.

Very interesting stats

It goes way back for cement, steel, aluminum where we aren't using more per year.

I didn't take a look at those nor the consumption rate of other countries but I think this happened in US because US is a developed nation with most of its infrastructure and military already built. I don't think the data in developing nations will be similar to the USA.

Also infrastructure, vehicles, machines and stuff like that depreciates/gets old and needs to be replaced. So just because we didn't see an increase in the last 20 years doesn't mean there won't be a spike in the future. With other nations competing in the race to become a developed nation the demand for those resources will be higher than ever.

So how has the US economy been growing not using more resources. Thats when we went into the information age, where the value is coming from knowledge as opposed to increasing production.

I think this only works if you stop population growth or make zhem live in ze pudz and make zhem eat ze bugz

There are other things we are doing like increasing durability of products through materials science and other technology. There is also increasing efficiency, like cars are getting more miles per gallon over time.

I agree, I think tech is deflationary. Humans are good at finding better ways to manage resources.

So if you get a car that lasts twice as long,

Well cars are like computers these days so their life expectancies must be similar I guess. There is lots of factors in regards to the life expectancy of a product, like how well it's maintained, its build quality and dozens of other things. I don't know a lot about cars so I am not sure whether the newer cars lasts longer than the older ones or not but I bet there is a pinnacle made year and brand for the longest lasting car. I heard cars made with Swedish steel lasts the longest.

and gets twice the miles per gallon as before, that is another pathway to economic growth.

I bet someone already compared the efficiency of ICU cars in miles per gallon to electric cars in miles per kW/h and the overall energy and resources they consume to go the same length, I wonder what are the results.

There is also hard to define qualitative improvements. Like a car with more safety is more valuable.

Cars with more safety could also be less valuable since they are generally also more privacy breaching.

The US actually has less farmland under cultivation today than in 1900, even though we have more than 4 times the population.

mind blown

Because crop yields per acre have risen faster than population over that time.

So I think what you are saying is tech will make it work, which I partially agree.

 

[WizardofSoda]

View attachment 741566View attachment 741567
Very interesting stats

I didn't take a look at those nor the consumption rate of other countries but I think this happened in US because US is a developed nation with most of its infrastructure and military already built. I don't think the data in developing nations will be similar to the USA.

Also infrastructure, vehicles, machines and stuff like that depreciates/gets old and needs to be replaced. So just because we didn't see an increase in the last 20 years doesn't mean there won't be a spike in the future. With other nations competing in the race to become a developed nation the demand for those resources will be higher than ever.


I think this only works if you stop population growth or make zhem live in ze pudz and make zhem eat ze bugz

I agree, I think tech is deflationary. Humans are good at finding better ways to manage resources.

Well cars are like computers these days so their life expectancies must be similar I guess. There is lots of factors in regards to the life expectancy of a product, like how well it's maintained, its build quality and dozens of other things. I don't know a lot about cars so I am not sure whether the newer cars lasts longer than the older ones or not but I bet there is a pinnacle made year and brand for the longest lasting car. I heard cars made with Swedish steel lasts the longest.

I bet someone already compared the efficiency of ICU cars in miles per gallon to electric cars in miles per kW/h and the overall energy and resources they consume to go the same length, I wonder what are the results.

Cars with more safety could also be less valuable since they are generally also more privacy breaching.


mind blown

So I think what you are saying is tech will make it work, which I partially agree.

Ya there is the belief that things today don't last as long as in the past. That is probably true for some things, but there are some big things I know last a lot longer today. Like take the LED lights which last hugely longer and use like 1/20th the electricity. Cars are a really big one. People in the US used to replace their cars like every 3 years in the 1970's, because they got to the point that fast that it was cheaper to replace than to keep repairing. Also just a car that requires less repairs is more valuable. There is also in the in-car communications with the cell phone network. Which who knows how to put a value on that.

How they try to value it for GDP purposes is looking at what people are paying for things. Like safety features in cars. But this is really estimating because some things are cheap to make but have a lot of value to people.

Ya for the electric and plug-in hybrid cars they have come up with equivalent miles per gallon. A big thing electric and hybrid cars have is the regenerative braking. So when people are braking the car is gaining energy.


Economics is strange. Like say a new drug on patent people are buying. We can calculate the GDP by however much sales the drug makes. But then after it goes off patent, its now cheap and the sales of the drug are way lower.. did its value go down?... obviously the value is still there, but now it shows up as way less in the GDP, because of the way the intellectual property system works.

They are running into it with computers too. Say you buy a computer today that is 100 times more powerful than a computer from way back. And both of them are $1,000 you paid. Is your computer the same value as before - no its clearly more valuable. But is it 100 times more valuable, probably not.

What about that Swedish steel that is more durable. We can compare 1,000 tons of steel to 2,000 tons of steel. But different types of steel get harder. Eg.. how much more durable is it. How do they account for this stuff, its in the GDP numbers they assume a 1.5% qualitative improvement per year.




For population if you look since 2000 the USA has gone from 282 million in 2000 to 331 million in 2020. So we added around 50 million people. Or about 17% more people. So we are using less resources per person. This then gets to a statement. If the increase in efficiency is faster than the population growth. But thing I agree with the mainstream views is basically this would all be a lot easier and more sustainable if there were just vastly less people in the world. Like if we had 1 billion people or even 2 billion people in the world.



The rising crop yields per acre are huge. Like imagine if India's population is increasing at less than 1% a year. But if their crop yields per acre were increasing at 3% a year. And I think now India grows enough food for everybody there. So then in time less and less farmland would be needed. Which 90% of humans footprint on the land is farmland. And it might be about 10-15 years off until India's population starts declining.


The infrastructure is the big one for a lot of resources. Because it takes huge resources to build the infrastructure. But then when its built you don't have to rebuild it. That is where materials science and engineering matter so much too. The Germans have these like radical nano-tech type plastics for plumbing. And I thought earlier look at those Roman aqueducts, 2,000 years later and they are still going.