Explain. Why do you just name call without providing an argument? It makes you look more retarded than me.
There is a non-zero chance of Russia experiencing an internal conflict or balkanization in the next few years. If that happened, Ukraine could conceivably take Crimea. Even if that chance is 0.1%, it refutes your absolute, unconditional claim.
A 50% view, even if on the fringe, is more rational than a 0% view. The moment you claim with absolute certainty that something will not happen, especially if there is a plausible pathway where it could, you lose all credibility.