Bitcoin gets rejected at resistance, sentiment returns to fear and The GLI continues to consolidate as we wait to see if bulls can hold this pivotal support level at $76k.
The Weekly Close
After a pretty violent rejection above $82k, Bitcoin closed back below our $80.5k range low. This is a clear sign that the market may not be ready to head higher yet and needs some more consolidation. $76k is the level to watch here because it is both our range high and the 20W moving average. If we hold it as support, we likely get a nice rally higher towards the 100W MA at $87.5k, but if we lose it, we can expect a choppy summer which is pretty standard for Bitcoin.The Bigger Picture
Bitcoin continues to follow the base case. We got our low in March. We got our rally into May. Now we are entering a window that is usually pretty challenging for Bitcoin so I am going to remain a bit cautious over the next few months. I’d love a surprise to the upside, but it seems like consolidation and chop is the most likely outcome this summer. This consolidation will lay the foundation for Bitcoin’s next rally higher.
