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My Blueprints for a Perfect Society, if I were the Monarch of a Western Nation

CursedMutantSoul

CursedMutantSoul

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My ideology combines ideas and theories from the left and the right to craft the blueprints for a perfect society. It combines supply-side economics with socialist policies to build a super-state with a long term competitive advantage. I'd argue that my political philosophy can be summarized as a Traditionalist Neo-Mercantilist Monarchist. This thread will focus on the economics side of it.

ECONOMICS:

I am a big believer in Chicago School of Economics. Although most proponents of these theories tend to support very low taxes, I believe many miss the big picture. The real reason Supply Side Economics works (often called Trickle Down) is because the private sector is a much better allocator of resources than public bureaus, so if we leave more capital in the hands of private enterprise rather than in government, resources will be used more efficiently. A country can become richer by shrinking the government, lowering taxes, and letting the free market rather than the state dictate capital allotment.

There is one fundamental flaw in this theory, a tax cut without a spending cut is not a real tax cut, you're replacing one form of tax for another. If the government is spending $500bn, and taxing $500bn, you have a balanced budget, if taxes are cut so the government is only collecting $400bn, it still has to make up for that extra $100bn somehow, whether through borrowing or money-printing. Both alternatives are actually far more destructive for a society than simply taxing an extra $100bn. Borrowing $100bn is pulling capital away from capital markets, where it otherwise would be invested in private enterprise, printing money erodes trust and monetary stability. If the government is to spend $500bn, it should tax $500bn. A tax cut leads to economic growth if and only if it is bet with an equal cut in SPENDING. Spending is the independent variable here, not the taxes. When governments run deficits, they crowd out the private sector, siphoning bank capital that othewise would be invested in productive endeavours and reallocating it to unproductive purposes. Not only this but the government builds up a debt, burdening its future self with mandatory interest payments.

The same is also true in reverse, when government revenues are higher than expenses, they're running a budget surplus. The surplus capital is used to repay debt, putting capital back in the capital markets (where it will be used for productive purposes). As governments repay their debts, the private sector gets an extra boost of capital, you see a reverse crowding out. This is in conjunction with the lower future interest payments the government must pay in the future. Paying off debt is both good for the economy and long term solvency.

TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS:

I am a huge believer in the twin deficit hypothesis, which states the only reason a persistent trade deficit can persist is if there is a persistent fiscal deficit. Think about it logically, why can China continuously sell more stuff to Americans than Americans buy from China? Why don't Americans run out of money? The answer is because when we send money overseas to buy their cheap imports, they use that money to buy U.S Treasuries. The money is then reinserted back into the American economy via government spending, so Americans can once again buy more cheap shit from China. As time passes, China builds a capital surplus, we build a debt. The only way to reverse this is to do the opposite. America needs to tax more than it spends, use the money to repay its debt. China will then be forced to use this cash surplus to either buy American goods or invest in U.S enterprise, or trade it with someone who does. By balancing the budget or running a trade surplus, we can invert the trade deficit.

Theoretically, once the debt is fully repaid (JFL), the federal government can begin building a capital surplus, a sovereign wealth fund. This has the same effect of debt repayment, cash is channeled into financial markets as the government buys up stocks, bonds, and assets. The government will build up a capital reserve and can use its interest/dividend income to supplement taxes. This is what nation-states like Singapore, UAE, and China (to some extent) do. It's what will lead to long term prosperity and development.
 
My ideology combines ideas and theories from the left and the right to craft the blueprints for a perfect society. It combines supply-side economics with socialist policies to build a super-state with a long term competitive advantage. I'd argue that my political philosophy can be summarized as a Traditionalist Neo-Mercantilist Monarchist. This thread will focus on the economics side of it.

ECONOMICS:

I am a big believer in Chicago School of Economics. Although most proponents of these theories tend to support very low taxes, I believe many miss the big picture. The real reason Supply Side Economics works (often called Trickle Down) is because the private sector is a much better allocator of resources than public bureaus, so if we leave more capital in the hands of private enterprise rather than in government, resources will be used more efficiently. A country can become richer by shrinking the government, lowering taxes, and letting the free market rather than the state dictate capital allotment.

There is one fundamental flaw in this theory, a tax cut without a spending cut is not a real tax cut, you're replacing one form of tax for another. If the government is spending $500bn, and taxing $500bn, you have a balanced budget, if taxes are cut so the government is only collecting $400bn, it still has to make up for that extra $100bn somehow, whether through borrowing or money-printing. Both alternatives are actually far more destructive for a society than simply taxing an extra $100bn. Borrowing $100bn is pulling capital away from capital markets, where it otherwise would be invested in private enterprise, printing money erodes trust and monetary stability. If the government is to spend $500bn, it should tax $500bn. A tax cut leads to economic growth if and only if it is bet with an equal cut in SPENDING. Spending is the independent variable here, not the taxes. When governments run deficits, they crowd out the private sector, siphoning bank capital that othewise would be invested in productive endeavours and reallocating it to unproductive purposes. Not only this but the government builds up a debt, burdening its future self with mandatory interest payments.

The same is also true in reverse, when government revenues are higher than expenses, they're running a budget surplus. The surplus capital is used to repay debt, putting capital back in the capital markets (where it will be used for productive purposes). As governments repay their debts, the private sector gets an extra boost of capital, you see a reverse crowding out. This is in conjunction with the lower future interest payments the government must pay in the future. Paying off debt is both good for the economy and long term solvency.

TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS:

I am a huge believer in the twin deficit hypothesis, which states the only reason a persistent trade deficit can persist is if there is a persistent fiscal deficit. Think about it logically, why can China continuously sell more stuff to Americans than Americans buy from China? Why don't Americans run out of money? The answer is because when we send money overseas to buy their cheap imports, they use that money to buy U.S Treasuries. The money is then reinserted back into the American economy via government spending, so Americans can once again buy more cheap shit from China. As time passes, China builds a capital surplus, we build a debt. The only way to reverse this is to do the opposite. America needs to tax more than it spends, use the money to repay its debt. China will then be forced to use this cash surplus to either buy American goods or invest in U.S enterprise, or trade it with someone who does. By balancing the budget or running a trade surplus, we can invert the trade deficit.

Theoretically, once the debt is fully repaid (JFL), the federal government can begin building a capital surplus, a sovereign wealth fund. This has the same effect of debt repayment, cash is channeled into financial markets as the government buys up stocks, bonds, and assets. The government will build up a capital reserve and can use its interest/dividend income to supplement taxes. This is what nation-states like Singapore, UAE, and China (to some extent) do. It's what will lead to long term prosperity and development.
Brutal noreplypill
 
This is one of the more rational and detailed economic/political posts in this forum, so kudos to you. I would agree that this is probably one of the most pragmatic economic blueprints for achieving an economically prosperous society. However, in order for this economic blueprint to work and for the capital surplus to be built from the ground up, both the government and the citizens must be willing to sacrifice economically for the long term, meaning that people would have to be okay with public spending cuts (in welfare, education etc.) while putting up with higher taxes, and the government/monarchy would need to exercise enormous fiscal restraint and be not corrupt as possible.

One issue I have is using the UAE as an example as they primarily built their capital surplus and sovereign wealth fund through oil rather than keeping government spending low and taxing more. Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Norway which have built up some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds never had to put up with such sacrifices because they built up their capital surpluses with oil money, and as a result its citizens (as well as its ruling leaders) enjoy some of the best living standards and quality of life in the world has to offer. Singapore and China (post-Mao) are probably the only real examples of this economic blueprint since they did not have abundant reserves natural resources (like oil) to begin with, but the negative consequences of this economic blueprint are starting to show in the sense that they are some of the most overworked, burnt-out and high stressed countries in the world as a result of having to put up with such sacrifices.

Another issue I have is the idea of needing to fully repay down the debt. We live in a debt-based economy and because of that, what gives value to a country's currency is the willingness of other countries and financial institutions to buy that country's debt denominated in that country's currency. This why the US has to keep going into more debt, creating more and more government bonds for those financial institutions and foreign government to buy as it is exactly this demand for dollars that gives it its value. This means that paying off the debt would actually cause the financial system to collapse as paying it off means taking all those bonds out of existence such that no country or institution or entity holds US government bonds, and the US government itself will no longer issue bonds, which completely removes the demand for the US dollar which causes the dollar to lose value completely. This is why it is actually better to instead maintain a country's debt to GDP ratio of 30% or less rather than completely pay it off.

This is why in order to truly make an ideal society, you would need to go one step further after building up and investing a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) which is to create a UBI program funded by the investment returns of that SWF so that the people are not forced to wageslave and can go on neetbux to avoid burnout and work-related stress, drastically improving the mental health and quality of life of your society.
 
This is one of the more rational and detailed economic/political posts in this forum, so kudos to you. I would agree that this is probably one of the most pragmatic economic blueprints for achieving an economically prosperous society. However, in order for this economic blueprint to work and for the capital surplus to be built from the ground up, both the government and the citizens must be willing to sacrifice economically for the long term, meaning that people would have to be okay with public spending cuts (in welfare, education etc.) while putting up with higher taxes, and the government/monarchy would need to exercise enormous fiscal restraint and be not corrupt as possible.

One issue I have is using the UAE as an example as they primarily built their capital surplus and sovereign wealth fund through oil rather than keeping government spending low and taxing more. Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Norway which have built up some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds never had to put up with such sacrifices because they built up their capital surpluses with oil money, and as a result its citizens (as well as its ruling leaders) enjoy some of the best living standards and quality of life in the world has to offer. Singapore and China (post-Mao) are probably the only real examples of this economic blueprint since they did not have abundant reserves natural resources (like oil) to begin with, but the negative consequences of this economic blueprint are starting to show in the sense that they are some of the most overworked, burnt-out and high stressed countries in the world as a result of having to put up with such sacrifices.

Another issue I have is the idea of needing to fully repay down the debt. We live in a debt-based economy and because of that, what gives value to a country's currency is the willingness of other countries and financial institutions to buy that country's debt denominated in that country's currency. This why the US has to keep going into more debt, creating more and more government bonds for those financial institutions and foreign government to buy as it is exactly this demand for dollars that gives it its value. This means that paying off the debt would actually cause the financial system to collapse as paying it off means taking all those bonds out of existence such that no country or institution or entity holds US government bonds, and the US government itself will no longer issue bonds, which completely removes the demand for the US dollar which causes the dollar to lose value completely. This is why it is actually better to instead maintain a country's debt to GDP ratio of 30% or less rather than completely pay it off.

This is why in order to truly make an ideal society, you would need to go one step further after building up and investing a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) which is to create a UBI program funded by the investment returns of that SWF so that the people are not forced to wageslave and can go on neetbux to avoid burnout and work-related stress, drastically improving the mental health and quality of life of your society.
These are some very good points.

I'd say regarding your first point, this is why this type of society would only work for a non resource based economy under a Constitutional Republic that greatly caps the ability of the Federal Government to spend money (America until 1933, never built a total capital surplus, but during peacetimes ran budget surpluses), a Monarchy (with a benevolent ruler), or a democracy with a homogenous patriotic population with a low time preference. The people would either have to be ok with this, or subdued enough to allow it to occur. The natural inclination of any nation-state is to run deficits, high time preference is the norm. This is why so few nation-states actually adhere to this model.

Regarding the second point about how having some national debt is actually good for the nation, I agree with this point, but I wanted to keep it simple for the time being. Perhaps instead of fully repaying the national debt, once the debt-gdp ratio hits 30%, all surplus dollars could be used to build the SWF. The net surplus of the government could be defined as the total assets within the SWF minus the national debt. I believe Singapore follows this model, although their SWF holds about $130bn, they still have $30bn outstanding bonds.
 
Enlightened absolutism was peak
 
I am a big believer in Chicago School of Economics
DNRD
 
These are some very good points.

I'd say regarding your first point, this is why this type of society would only work for a non resource based economy under a Constitutional Republic that greatly caps the ability of the Federal Government to spend money (America until 1933, never built a total capital surplus, but during peacetimes ran budget surpluses), a Monarchy (with a benevolent ruler), or a democracy with a homogenous patriotic population with a low time preference. The people would either have to be ok with this, or subdued enough to allow it to occur. The natural inclination of any nation-state is to run deficits, high time preference is the norm. This is why so few nation-states actually adhere to this model.

True, but i would say that it is in default human nature to have high time preference, unless there is some sort of guaranteed reward in the future for having a low time preference, which is why I suggested in my last paragraph that if I was the leader of this society I would implement a UBI program after achieving the capital surplus as that reward for the people's willingness to delay gratification. What's better about this is that by promising this and actually implementing it when the time comes, this would get the people to willingly agree with your policy without me having to forcefully subdue them. That being said, I would also make sure that the UBI program is financially sustainable in the long run meaning that payout would not be fixed but instead subjected to changes based on investment performance, similar to the Alaskan Permanent Fund Dividend but on a larger scale.

Regarding the second point about how having some national debt is actually good for the nation, I agree with this point, but I wanted to keep it simple for the time being. Perhaps instead of fully repaying the national debt, once the debt-gdp ratio hits 30%, all surplus dollars could be used to build the SWF. The net surplus of the government could be defined as the total assets within the SWF minus the national debt. I believe Singapore follows this model, although their SWF holds about $130bn, they still have $30bn outstanding bonds.

I did some research into Singapore and their SWFs and I realized that their economic system is quite different from what I expected. Turns out Singapore does not only have 1 SWF but 3 separate SWFs which combined hold over $1.3 trillion USD in assets. However, they also have a debt-to-gdp ratio of 170% which is insanely high but their gross national debt is also around $1.3 trillion USD meaning that if they ever needed to repay the debt they could just sell off all their assets and pay it back in full without having to default on it. Problem is that it is a pretty risky move considering if the investment performance of their SWFs were to go sour and creditors demand they pay back the debt, they would be screwed.
 
True, but i would say that it is in default human nature to have high time preference, unless there is some sort of guaranteed reward in the future for having a low time preference, which is why I suggested in my last paragraph that if I was the leader of this society I would implement a UBI program after achieving the capital surplus as that reward for the people's willingness to delay gratification. What's better about this is that by promising this and actually implementing it when the time comes, this would get the people to willingly agree with your policy without me having to forcefully subdue them. That being said, I would also make sure that the UBI program is financially sustainable in the long run meaning that payout would not be fixed but instead subjected to changes based on investment performance, similar to the Alaskan Permanent Fund Dividend but on a larger scale.
That’s an interesting idea and I’d have to think about it. One slight issue with that is that you’d never be able to build up too much of a surplus if you’re constantly splurging on your own people. It’s like becoming rich off dividends but spending all your dividend checks at the bar or casino.
I did some research into Singapore and their SWFs and I realized that their economic system is quite different from what I expected. Turns out Singapore does not only have 1 SWF but 3 separate SWFs which combined hold over $1.3 trillion USD in assets. However, they also have a debt-to-gdp ratio of 170% which is insanely high but their gross national debt is also around $1.3 trillion USD meaning that if they ever needed to repay the debt they could just sell off all their assets and pay it back in full without having to default on it. Problem is that it is a pretty risky move considering if the investment performance of their SWFs were to go sour and creditors demand they pay back the debt, they would be screwed.
So in effect it’s like they have no debt and no SWF. Their assets and liabilities fully cancel each other out
 

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