I think the more reasonable justification for non-approach isn't "I'm 100% sure I don't have a chance". It's more like:
- "I'm 99% sure I will be rejected when I ask a girl out"
- "in the 1% chance I am not rejected, I'm 99% sure I won't get a 2nd date and she'll steal my wallet"
- "in the 1% chance my wallet isn't stolen and she agrees to go out with me a 2nd time, she will still try to bleed my wallet slowly while secretly cucking me with chad".
- "in the 1% chance she splits bills equally and doesn't cuck me with chad, she will still tire of me and dump me 99% of the time, but at least she will be honest and faithful and upright with me before she breaks my heart"
(1/100)^4 = 1 in 100,000,000 shot at longterm happiness. At what cost in time/money to me?
You have better odds if you are more appealing to a foid, and maybe also if you have better judgment in women. Yet it is chad with his experience dating lots of women who has the better judgment as to their nature on instinct compared to my untested instinct.