Why the Russians are fighting hard to not lose Kherson

[WizardofSoda]

On paper its a dumb idea to defend this city of 300,000 and the large area around it, because its on the Western side of the Dnieper River and hard to resupply it with 1 main bridge. The problem is psychological.

1. Russia if it gets pushed back out of this area of Kherson province and back across the Dnieper River, it would officially be the end of Russia's dream of taking Mykolaiv and Odessa provinces and linking them up with Transnistria in Moldova.

2. More importantly if the Ukrainian army can advance into a well defended Russian controlled area and push them out then the Ukrainians can do the same thing elsewhere. So a great morale boost for the Ukrainians and light at the end of the tunnel for the Ukrainians and NATO backers.


My own prediction for how it will go. I think the Russians will withdraw as the fighting reaches the outskirts of Kherson city, probably in the next two weeks, then maybe a week or two of fighting in the outskirts of the city. Because the Russians will run out of ammo. If the Ukrainians take the city, they can't easily just go across the river either. Probably the next offensive will then be South from Zaporizhia city in Zaporizhia province for the Ukrainians where they have been slowly massing troops for awhile.

 

[LesscoBlob]

The Russian military was not prepared for an actual invation of a country it seems. Theoretically, by just comparing Russia's military strength to Ukraine's, the war should have already been a resounding Russian victory.
The War will likely go on into 2023 I think.

 

[Idotms]

 

[Deleted member 40252]

Because the Russians will run out of ammo.

This, logistics are going to be the achilles heel of any Russian operations

 

[WizardofSoda]

The Russian military was not prepared for an actual invation of a country it seems. Theoretically, by just comparing Russia's military strength to Ukraine's, the war should have already been a resounding Russian victory.
The War will likely go on into 2023 I think.

At the start of the war I looked up a lot of info about Ukraine like the area of the country at 600,000 sq/km, and 41 million people very spread out, with big cities spread all over the country. And then the countless villages and towns. And the roads going everywhere with it being farmland and the population spread out.

And I thought I don't think anyone could take this over if the Ukrainians were fighting back and being supplied by someone big. I also saw its going to be very easy to drive in supplies from Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

I think to outright take all of Ukraine it would have taken like 750,000 soldiers with another 1 million reserves mobilized to rotate in and fill in when guys get taken out. And pushing brutal infantry advances with serious losses. Until eventually the Ukrainians gave up. Thing is I don't think the Russian people or the Russian army itself would have supported that plan. Like 200,000 dead or something in my plan.

There is sort of an expectation among professional soldiers of the chances of being killed in combat. If the country is outright invaded, then ok they know those chances are going to be high. But barring that they are expecting maybe 1 or 2% chance of being killed in combat in their careers, not like a 20% chance.