This thread will be made into a physical time capsule to test your prediction.
This asks for what you predict the death toll to be from the largest disaster affecting society between today and December 31, 2100.
For comparison, COVID-19 killed roughly 7 million people. The Spanish flu killed up to 50 million people. 70-85 million people died in World War 2. The Black Death killed up to 200 million people.
"Collapse" is taken to be worldwide deindustrialization and the reduction of humanity to carrying capacity.
The issue with thinking about collapse is that one's prediction is not as concrete. I refer to people who say a 50% chance that society collapses this century, that sort of thing. However, if someone says, "There will be a disaster that kills at least 2 billion people this century," that is a concrete claim, and if we lived long enough, we could observe whether it is true or false.
What this gauges is your certainty in society overcoming (1) pathogens, including designed ones, (2) nuclear proliferation, (3) conventional warfare and genocides that lead to large death tolls, and (4) augmentation of these three issues by artificial intelligence.
This asks for what you predict the death toll to be from the largest disaster affecting society between today and December 31, 2100.
For comparison, COVID-19 killed roughly 7 million people. The Spanish flu killed up to 50 million people. 70-85 million people died in World War 2. The Black Death killed up to 200 million people.
"Collapse" is taken to be worldwide deindustrialization and the reduction of humanity to carrying capacity.
The issue with thinking about collapse is that one's prediction is not as concrete. I refer to people who say a 50% chance that society collapses this century, that sort of thing. However, if someone says, "There will be a disaster that kills at least 2 billion people this century," that is a concrete claim, and if we lived long enough, we could observe whether it is true or false.
What this gauges is your certainty in society overcoming (1) pathogens, including designed ones, (2) nuclear proliferation, (3) conventional warfare and genocides that lead to large death tolls, and (4) augmentation of these three issues by artificial intelligence.
