Update on my Netflix stock buy

[WizardofSoda]

I

I waited for normies to panic sell Netflix and I bought in at $175.89 on May 11 with 5% of my portfolio. A month later its at $182.94 so up 4%. It has gone up as high as $205.04 since I bought it which was up 16%, but I'm not in a rush to sell it. A lot of normies got wrecked on this because they were buying in at over $500, and some up at $690. Also some normies they doubled down when the stock price collapsed to ~$385.

I did a lot of research of Netflix's annual reports and numbers and reading about the streaming industry statistics and investor presentations before I bought in. I made this spreadsheet from Wikipedia US streaming companies which convinced me to buy where I did.

Netflix had $29.6 billion revenues in 2021. Which is basically 205 million subscribers average through the year * $12 a month * 12 months = $29.5 billion.



Now its about patience

Normies are like retarded low IQ animals. They don't have long attention spans. You have to have supreme patience to wait. It took great patience for me to wait for a monster breakdown in the share price before I bought in. Now it takes great patience for me to wait until normies bid the share price a lot higher. But I don't know when that will be.

My plan is to sell at the resistance at $383. Since I bought at $175 that would be an 118% gain. So it doesn't have to happen anytime soon, even if it gets there in 2 years it is big annual percentage gains.

Something about patience is since Netflix is only 5% of my portfolio there is a lot going on in my portfolio. I have 30 stocks I am in.


What if Netflix share prices break down further

I never sell when I am down and I don't average down. Its just that simple I am unshakeable, and I don't get caught putting more in if it goes down.

Normies could panic sell this down to half where it is now, and I won't even consider selling.

 

[HyperVersager_4EVER]

I mean are you sure Netflix will bounce back? Your HODL strategy is dependent on it.
Wasn't the whole schtick of Netflix being the one place you could watch everything and it increasingly bled subs and money as all media producers made their own streaming services(which is a trend only accelerating and will probably further hurt Netflix in the future, Amazon Prime is close to catching up and Disney+ is halfway there despite being only 3 years old) ?
It's current prospects are... murky? Especially since many recent changes like cancelling/losing certain popular content, talks of increasing subscription price and adds are unpopular with its users?

 

[HyperVersager_4EVER]

Netflix isn't an evergreen essential utility. It can be replaced and its current decline is not guaranteed to be just a normie hysteria bearish fad imo.

 

[Linesnap99]

looks like you dont put any sl.

 

[Linesnap99]

Netflix isn't an evergreen essential utility. It can be replaced and its current decline is not guaranteed to be just a normie hysteria bearish fad imo.

@WizardofSoda when he sees the candles go down

View: https://youtu.be/0fwbzqhL5QU

 

[HyperVersager_4EVER]

Tbh thinking about this a bit more, unless they do something stupid and explode(not that unlikely considering recent unpopular changes but still likely won't be the case?) it probably will bounce back after the bear rush is over. You have a reasonable chance to hit your target goal of 388 cash out with profit.
As an overall trend Netflix's future prospects aren't stellar but even in the worse cases it will take a while for it to die down so this is likely a reasonable investment, especially since it's just 5% of your portfolio.

@WizardofSoda when he sees the candles go down

View: https://youtu.be/0fwbzqhL5QU

I mean it has solid chance to make a comeback and he put only 5% of his money in it. Definitely more sane than crypto gambling.

 

[WizardofSoda]

I mean are you sure Netflix will bounce back? Your HODL strategy is dependent on it.
Wasn't the whole schtick of Netflix being the one place you could watch everything and it increasingly bled subs and money as all media producers made their own streaming services(which is a trend only accelerating and will probably further hurt Netflix in the future, Amazon Prime is close to catching up and Disney+ is halfway there despite being only 3 years old) ?
It's current prospects are... murky? Especially since many recent changes like cancelling/losing certain popular content, talks of increasing subscription price and adds are unpopular with its users?

Those are definitely real issues. My feeling is streaming if it isn't already will probably move to bundles for most people.

People panic sold on the Q1 2022 report, because the subscribers declined like 200,000 or something over the previous quarter. But there was also a loss of I think 700,000 of their Russian subscribers. Which I believe they will get back eventually, the Russian market can grow a lot. You can see in the Russian numbers how much room there is to grow in the global marketplace still. Like 700,000 is just the beginning of what is possible in the Russian market.

Netflix has quite a lot of avenues left to grow revenues.

-global market growth
-they are phasing out password sharing this year
-price increases over time
-further growth in developed markets


Another hugely overlooked thing is the intellectual property Netflix has in these franchises. Netflix hasn't even begun to really develop the whole ecosystem of global revenue streams possible from these franchises. Thats what Disney is working on so well. And there is also global licensing possibilities for the tv shows that can go on for decades to come.

 

[WizardofSoda]

Tbh thinking about this a bit more, unless they do something stupid and explode(not that unlikely considering recent unpopular changes but still likely won't be the case?) it probably will bounce back after the bear rush is over. You have a reasonable chance to hit your target goal of 388 cash out with profit.
As an overall trend Netflix's future prospects aren't stellar but even in the worse cases it will take a while for it to die down so this is likely a reasonable investment, especially since it's just 5% of your portfolio.

I mean it has solid chance to make a comeback and he put only 5% of his money in it. Definitely more sane than crypto gambling.

Exactly that is how I view investments I don't need to be right every time. What happens is say I am in 20 stocks. 12 go pretty much like how I thought, 4 do better than I thought/fly up really fast, and 4 face headwinds that take awhile to work through.

I don't just think about the upside, but also the downside. And since I bought Netflix when it was worth $78 billion I thought what is the downside risk here.

Say Amazon or Disney simply buy Netflix, what is it worth then. I estimated it has to be worth $75 billion in a buyout. Or to be really pessimistic, $50 billion.

Netflix also can cut costs by slowing down work or stopping funding of shows that aren't that popular. Since Netflix is so big it doesn't rely on just a few shows it has a broad portfolio.

A problem on crypto gambling is what is the downside.. well 100% basically. But for a company like Netflix they have a lot of assets and customers so they have value.

 

[WizardofSoda]

looks like you dont put any sl.

@WizardofSoda when he sees the candles go down

View: https://youtu.be/0fwbzqhL5QU

Ya I never have stop losses, in fact I never sell when I am down period. I just hold to zero if necessary.

 

[HyperVersager_4EVER]

People panic sold on the Q1 2022 report, because the subscribers declined like 200,000 or something over the previous quarter.

You are right that a significant part of the current decline is market hysteria

the Russian market can grow a lot. You can see in the Russian numbers how much room there is to grow in the global marketplace still. Like 700,000 is just the beginning of what is possible in the Russian market.

The growth potential of Russian market is hindered by a)sanctions obviously b)poverty and lack of a strong Russian middle class purchasing power similar to what W. Europe and America has. I do not think Netflix will have a huge influx of Russian users in the near future.

-they are phasing out password sharing this year
-price increases over time

These are unpopular changes that some expect to backfire. Hence why the recent loss of subscribers.

Another hugely overlooked thing is the intellectual property Netflix has in these franchises. Netflix hasn't even begun to really develop the whole ecosystem of global revenue streams possible from these franchises.

Very good point I've never thought about. A bit luck based if those franchises will stick, there usually are more flops than success stories. But with the amount of IPs they have, and under a competent leadership they might still grow, or at least stop the decline even while getting starved out of third party content due to them moving to other streamer services.

 

[WizardofSoda]

You are right that a significant part of the current decline is market hysteria

The growth potential of Russian market is hindered by a)sanctions obviously b)poverty and lack of a strong Russian middle class purchasing power similar to what W. Europe and America has. I do not think Netflix will have a huge influx of Russian users in the near future.

These are unpopular changes that some expect to backfire. Hence why the recent loss of subscribers.

Very good point I've never thought about. A bit luck based if those franchises will stick, there usually are more flops than success stories. But with the amount of IPs they have, and under a competent leadership they might still grow, or at least stop the decline even while getting starved out of third party content due to them moving to other streamer services.

Ya the main problem I think for the market is all this is going to take time to work through. Eg.. nerds buying collector set DVD packages for each season with extra content and figurines and exclusive clothing.

Basically we had the hypergrowth phase, where Netflix management they just had a simple mission. Pay whatever it takes to develop as many good shows as they could, and offer the service relatively cheap to get as many subscribers as they could in the gold rush phase.

Now they've got 221 million subscribers, $29.6 billion a year in revenues, a whole bunch of IP content. Now the business isn't just growing subscribers, although that is still a lot of it.

One idea they have is a free tier for in poor countries. But with advertising. Think about it this way say there is 3.5 billion people in developing countries like Russia. But currently only a small percentage of the people in those countries are middle class. Yet think if just 2% of the people in those countries each year becomes middle class. That is 70 million people. That is like adding a UK market every year.

 

[Twinkcel]

Very low iq. Netflix doesn’t have much content as other companies started pulling their content from Netflix like Disney and hbo their biggest competitors. Making their original content takes tons of money, probably more than other companies since they don’t have the infrastructure like Disney that owns Star Wars, Pixar, Marvel, National Geographic that’s enough to make tons of original content for low cost. Also Netflix is the most expensive and people are moving to other cheaper options especially since people are worried about a recession

 

[WizardofSoda]

Very low iq. Netflix doesn’t have much content as other companies started pulling their content from Netflix like Disney and hbo their biggest competitors. Making their original content takes tons of money, probably more than other companies since they don’t have the infrastructure like Disney that owns Star Wars, Pixar, Marvel, National Geographic that’s enough to make tons of original content for low cost. Also Netflix is the most expensive and people are moving to other cheaper options especially since people are worried about a recession

@HyperVersager_4EVER


This is my spreadsheet on Netflix's revenues. You can see the huge revenues Netflix has to fund new content. Plus their library of content is growing each year. You see these revenues put Netflix in a very strong position because they can pay for so much new content.

If you look at Q1 2022 where everyone panicked on the quarterly report, the revenues were still up 9% versus Q1 2021.

 

[Twinkcel]

View attachment 624593


@HyperVersager_4EVER


This is my spreadsheet on Netflix's revenues. You can see the huge revenues Netflix has to fund new content. Plus their library of content is growing each year. You see these revenues put Netflix in a very strong position because they can pay for so much new content.

If you look at Q1 2022 where everyone panicked on the quarterly report, the revenues were still up 9% versus Q1 2021.

Disney will have positive growth next quarter because they just started their service in the Middle East and Netflix will have negative numbers since a lot of Middle East subscribers will move to Disney because it’s cheaper or they just want to try the new thing. Maybe buy Disney and wait end of the quarter is a better play imo

 

[ilieknothing]

JFL at funding faggot and tranny propaganda

 

[BraincelsRefugee]

JFL at funding faggot and tranny propaganda

If he can make $$$ off of normies eating up said faggot propaganda and pamping the stock price, why not

 

[WizardofSoda]

Disney will have positive growth next quarter because they just started their service in the Middle East and Netflix will have negative numbers since a lot of Middle East subscribers will move to Disney because it’s cheaper or they just want to try the new thing. Maybe buy Disney and wait end of the quarter is a better play imo

Disney look great, I am waiting for an entry point on Disney shares. Disney added 7.9 million subscribers in the last quarter.

 

[Emba]

Netflix or gas?

Gas or Netflix?

I guess I can take the bus to work....

NOT!

lol

 

[HyperVersager_4EVER]

View attachment 624593


@HyperVersager_4EVER


This is my spreadsheet on Netflix's revenues. You can see the huge revenues Netflix has to fund new content. Plus their library of content is growing each year. You see these revenues put Netflix in a very strong position because they can pay for so much new content.

If you look at Q1 2022 where everyone panicked on the quarterly report, the revenues were still up 9% versus Q1 2021.

They have negative acceleration since 2018 but yes they are still growing. As I said before it will probably hit your target cash out price, even if they collapse eventually.
One worrisome thing that comes to my mind is covid. Lockdowns could have helped against the negative acceleration of their growth by propping the demand up, but now that they are gone(unless globalists start pushing for them again I guess) it may plummet further than this trajectory would imply at first glance.

If he can make $$$ off of normies eating up said faggot propaganda and pamping the stock price, why not

Yeah lol I would do it too if I could.
Why moralfag for normie society when a)they don't give a shit about you b)it's already corrupted beyond belief and miss money.

Disney look great, I am waiting for an entry point on Disney shares. Disney added 7.9 million subscribers in the last quarter.

Buying Disney shares wouldn't be so bad. They are back to 2015 levels due to general stock market collapse but will almost certainly bounce back due to how gargantuan they are. Gosh I wish I had any money to invest.
What's your idea of entry point price btw? It's already down a lot.

 

[WizardofSoda]

They have negative acceleration since 2018 but yes they are still growing. As I said before it will probably hit your target cash out price, even if they collapse eventually.
One worrisome thing that comes to my mind is covid. Lockdowns could have helped against the negative acceleration of their growth by propping the demand up, but now that they are gone(unless globalists start pushing for them again I guess) it may plummet further than this trajectory would imply at first glance.

Yeah lol I would do it too if I could.
Why moralfag for normie society when a)they don't give a shit about you b)it's already corrupted beyond belief and miss money.

Buying Disney shares wouldn't be so bad. They are back to 2015 levels due to general stock market collapse but will almost certainly bounce back due to how gargantuan they are. Gosh I wish I had any money to invest.
What's your idea of entry point price btw? It's already down a lot.

Disney I haven't thought yet of a good way to value the company. The current market cap is $174 billion for Disney. So I want lower, maybe $125 billion. Which would be $68 a share.

I always have to weigh how low to try to hold out for, because if I go too low I might not get it.

 

[AsianKungFao]

I have never bought stock before. Do you get some money just for holding it or do you have to sell it?

 

[WizardofSoda]

I have never bought stock before. Do you get some money just for holding it or do you have to sell it?

Since these tech companies were growing so fast they wanted to re-invest their profits in their businesses, instead of paying dividends or buying back their own shares. When they buyback some of their own shares it reduces the number of shares, so the future profits the business is making per share rises from otherwise.

So currently Netflix doesn't pay a dividend, you would have to sell some of the shares to get cash out.

The theoretical valuation of the company is how much cash it can return over the long run to shareholders with dividends and share buy backs.


What makes a stock like Netflix so volatile is its really hard to estimate how much profits they might make in the future, and how much they will have to keep re-investing in their business. Like nobody really can accurately guess what Netflix's revenues and profits will be 5 years from now. The best they can do is make estimates but two peoples estimates can be way different.

 

[WizardofSoda]

Because of all this uncertainty I only invest like 5% of my portfolio in one company. I am making an educated guess that its a good buy at this price. Like Netflix might get a few shows that are smash hits that people are enjoying, or it might have trouble getting some big shows.

We don't know how sticky the customers are. Like people are speculating in this crash that a bunch of people will cancel their subscriptions, but they don't know that. I think the subscribers will be way more sticky than the market thinks.

 

[WizardofSoda]

 

[WizardofSoda]

Netflix was at $445 yesterday (bought at $175.89 in May-2022), so I sold 50% of my original shares to get my money I invested out, plus 25% extra. I am up 153% on the investment.

 

[I respect women]

just buy 20k in random stocks and wait 40 years

 

[WizardofSoda]

just buy 20k in random stocks and wait 40 years

Ya the S&P 500 Index averages about 10% returns a year. Even factoring out the 2% inflation, that is still 8% a year.

At 8% a year gains, your $20,000, will be worth ~$400,000 in 40 years.