
Asgard
LlamaCon 2026
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- Joined
- Mar 25, 2022
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As I don't want to overly explain myself, I'll only leave some keywords so you get more context: the Siloviki, etcetera.
I'd like to hear out thoughts from actual Russians on this forum regarding my take. Of course, this is nothing new since we've seen these patterns since... a long way before the imperial times? I've heard some bosses do hold some degree of "loyalty" towards the dynasty of the Romanov family...
Anyway, here's the final output I've retrieved from various state-of-the-art LLMs:
Putin’s regime functions like a vertically integrated mafia state fragmented into semi-autonomous clans, each with its own domain and incentives. This system is stable only as long as Putin keeps the balance—but as loyalty wanes or power shifts, the risk of fragmentation or collapse grows.
I'd like to hear out thoughts from actual Russians on this forum regarding my take. Of course, this is nothing new since we've seen these patterns since... a long way before the imperial times? I've heard some bosses do hold some degree of "loyalty" towards the dynasty of the Romanov family...
Anyway, here's the final output I've retrieved from various state-of-the-art LLMs:
Putin’s regime functions like a vertically integrated mafia state fragmented into semi-autonomous clans, each with its own domain and incentives. This system is stable only as long as Putin keeps the balance—but as loyalty wanes or power shifts, the risk of fragmentation or collapse grows.
1. The Siloviki
- Key figures: Patrushev, Bortnikov, Naryshkin, and until recently, Shoigu.
- Sectors: FSB, military-industrial complex, state security.
- Interests: Expanding state control, suppressing dissent, maintaining internal order.
- Shoigu's Role: As Defense Minister (until his 2024 dismissal), Shoigu had built a patronage network within the military and defense industry. His "clan" was known for its ceremonial nationalism and links to war profiteering.
2. The Oligarch-Industrial Clan
- Key figures: Igor Sechin (Rosneft), Gennady Timchenko, the Rotenberg brothers.
- Sectors: Energy (especially oil and gas), infrastructure.
- Interests: Access to state contracts, monopolies, offshore wealth.
- Tactics: Control of wealth in exchange for loyalty; silencing or exiling disloyal tycoons.
3. The Technocrat Clan
- Key figures: Elvira Nabiullina (Central Bank), Anton Siluanov (Finance), Sergey Sobyanin (Mayor of Moscow).
- Sectors: Economic management, urban development, banking.
- Role: Stabilizers—kept around for their competence in managing the system’s survival under sanctions.
4. The Nationalist/Orthodox Clan
- Key figures: Dmitry Medvedev (increasingly hawkish), Patriarch Kirill, hardline ideologues.
- Sectors: Media, cultural identity, education, Church.
- Function: Promote Russian exceptionalism and social conservatism to legitimize the regime ideologically.
5. The “Security Capitalist” Clan (e.g., Prigozhin’s Wagner)
- Key figures: Yevgeny Prigozhin (until his 2023 death) (*** edited: with Utkin maintaining a low profile as usual ***), Ramzan Kadyrov (Chechnya).
- Sectors: Paramilitary, security-for-hire, foreign intervention.
- Dynamic: Operated on the edge of state authority—Wagner was (and is) both a tool and a liability.
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