Russia will probably wait until Spring 2023 for major offensives

[WizardofSoda]

1. Russia's Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG's) are beat to shit and need repairs and replacement equipment and get replacement recruits through training.

2. Putin said the Russian active duty army is being raised from 1,020,000 now to 1,150,000 in 2023. They have a lot of recruits in training now.

3. Ukraine is launching its Fall offensive now before Winter so Russia mainly has to concentrate on defense anyway, including buildings layers of defensive fortifications.

4. If Russia launched a major offensive now it might not make it that far before Winter then have to wait for Spring anyway.

5. The Russian combat divisions and the 125,000 soldiers of the DPR and LPR they need a long break to rest.


Putting it altogether while the Russian army probably will have minor offensives, they are unlikely to launch the next major offensives until Spring 2023.

 

[WizardofSoda]

The Russians are preparing for a long war. Like they are saying 10+ years for the war. Russia seems determined to take all of Ukraine.

 

[SIR ETHNICCEL]

The Russians are preparing for a long war. Like they are saying 10+ years for the war. Russia seems determined to take all of Ukraine.

Do they have the capabilities to develop and mass produce new tech to counter what the West is sending into the Ukraine?

 

[WizardofSoda]

Do they have the capabilities to develop and mass produce new tech to counter what the West is sending into the Ukraine?

No, they have to hope China will send them kits of components to assemble in Russia, so it technically counts as Russian made.

One exception is Russia did invest a lot in and develop long range cruise missiles. Which appear to me the Russians regular cruise missiles are equivalent to the Tomahawk cruise missiles. Russia has launched over 3,000 of them at Ukraine's cities so far in the war. Imo this was very smart as those long range cruise missiles make a big difference and are affordable for Russia. Whereas some of the other weapons stuff like airforce they just don't have the economy to develop them to the point of being useful.


Russian soldiers have to stick with AK-47's, machine guns, RPG's, mortars, grenades, regular artillery, and non-guided rocket trucks. Artillery isn't that bad because 99.9% of shells the Ukrainians have are also non-guided.

An extremely brutal thing is without the Western anti-tank weapons, that gargantuan amount of Russian armored vehicles would have been very powerful attacking in.

The Russians also do have medium range rocket cruise missiles, they just don't seem to have very many of them.

 

[Deleted member 9758]

As a Russian, i'm glad that I don't live in Russia. That shithole is doomed.

 

[WizardofSoda]

As a Russian, i'm glad that I don't live in Russia. That shithole is doomed.

I sort of view it as Russia knows it is probably fucked anyway, so it is going to go down honorably on the battlefield. Or maybe take over Ukraine even though unlikely.. then add 300-400,000 soldiers and Ukraine's economic resources, and go to attack the next country.

 

[Deleted member 9758]

I sort of view it as Russia knows it is probably fucked anyway, so it is going to go down honorably on the battlefield. Or maybe take over Ukraine even though unlikely.. then add 300-400,000 soldiers and Ukraine's economic resources, and go to attack the next country.

Do you think it's likely it will take all or most of Ukraine?

 

[RandomGuy]

Worst Has Yet To Come: Inflation and War Are Stoking Civil Unrest Across Globe​

 

[WizardofSoda]

Do you think it's likely it will take all or most of Ukraine?

No I think the likely thing is Russia can hold onto the 4 SE provinces in Ukraine it has now which are relatively pro-Russian.

The way they view it in Russia though is they really need to take all of Ukraine for strategic reasons. Like one example is that would link Russia up with Hungary which probably can be broken off of NATO/the EU. And then with Hungary as an ally that can give Russia land access to Serbia. So then they can help Serbia retake the Yugoslavia countries.

With Mykolaiv and Odessa provinces in SW Ukraine, then Russia can link up with Transnistria and retake Moldova which was in the Soviet Union.

And above all Russia has 146 million people, and Ukraine 41 million people. In the 4 SE provinces of Ukraine there are 9 million. So the remaining Ukraine has about 32 million. Russia also wants to retake northern provinces in Kazakhstan which have large ethnic Russian populations, and ideally all of Kazakhstan which has 18 million people.

If Russia has Ukraine they can also probably flip Bulgaria to being pro-Russian. And also get Greece to be pro-Russian. Then that isolates Romania which would be under pressure to be neutral.

 

[WizardofSoda]

Worst Has Yet To Come: Inflation and War Are Stoking Civil Unrest Across Globe​

Ya the war is now on at least 3 fronts. In Ukraine, Syria and Libya.

Russia with 146 million people, Iran with 83 million people, Syria 20 million, Libya 6 million.. these include large states that won't easily go down.

 

[IncelusRex]

There is a very famous old historian proffesor in my country. In a recent interview on tv he said "if you look at hisotrical strategy Russia's ally is the USA". What do you think of this? @WizardofSoda

 

[WizardofSoda]

There is a very famous old historian proffesor in my country. In a recent interview on tv he said "if you look at hisotrical strategy Russia's ally is the USA". What do you think of this? @WizardofSoda

One way to look at it is even though the US doesn't want Russia to rebuild the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact in Eastern Europe. It doesn't mean the USA wants to see Russia torn down or weakened.

Even these 4 SE provinces in Ukraine that have large ethnic Russian populations, the USA doesn't seem that worried about Russia getting.

Russia also has the card it can play, that it could become a full proxy of China. Which is very dangerous for Europe, because China has money, manufacturing and technology.

 

[BertStanton]

Russia has only sent 12 of it's 77 divisions

 

[Emba]

This is Offensive

 

[Knajjd]

Even these 4 SE provinces in Ukraine that have large ethnic Russian populations, the USA doesn't seem that worried about Russia getting.

The September counter offensive by Ukraine was probably armed and planned by the USA.

This is the type of war the US military excels at but wasn't allowed to run in Afghanistan. Now they are using Ukraine as a proxy against Russia.