Russia running out of time in the Ukraine war

[WizardofSoda]

Consider these factors..

-the Western countries are now ramping up military production
-the money going into Ukraine is increasing

-some Western countries have authorized for the Ukrainians to use their long range weapons to hit targets in Russia. Which Russia threatened a response but then didn't do anything even as targets in Russia are being hit.
-some NATO nations are talking about sending in outright ground troops to defend areas in Ukraine, aka the Overton window is moving.

-NATO nations say they are going to train Ukrainian recruits in Ukraine (aka there will openly be Western military trainers in the country)



What has Russia gained since the war shifted in their favor in October-2023, so in the last 8 months.. about 1,000 sq/km. Which is 1/600th of Ukraine.

To me for Russia the scaling of its military and military industry has been slow considering the gravity of the war for Russia. Probably why Putin brought in the Keynesian economist as the defense minister now, Belousov, who replaces Shoigu.


I don't think Russia has to do more mobilization for now, but its the military industry which should be scaled much more. Putin himself said a month or so ago that going into the war Russia had 2.5 million people working in the defense industries, like the weapons manufacturers. And he said that is now up to 3 million.

For the military Russia went into the war with 1,040,000 active duty soldiers which they basically found out was more like 900,000 in reality. And now they are up to 1,200,000 active duty soldiers, with basically all of that growth being in combat army soldiers. The numbers I have seen is the Russian military plans is adding net 120,000 active duty soldiers a year. They could add more soldiers if they wanted but they are limited by the rate of weapons production.

 

[lifesucksandyoudie]

The West has every incentive to make this conflict as drawn out and prolonged as possible to bleed out Russia and keep them too preoccupied. Inflicting more damage to Russia long term by dragging out the war is the realpolitik move. It's not like Putin gives a shit about killing off poor ugly slavic men anyways. The people that matter are the better off normies in the cities.

 

[comradespiderman29]

I hate how long it's taking

 

[_meh]

You probably know about the Western/NATO mercenaries already being in Ukraine (and France obliged to send some of theirs, outrightly).

Anyway, I thought Russia didn't have any issues with weapons production? Wouldn't be anything to different to what they had back in the USSR (since they rely on some of the stuff that was built over from the Soviet period). But I guess things maybe different this time.

 

[WizardofSoda]

The West has every incentive to make this conflict as drawn out and prolonged as possible to bleed out Russia and keep them too preoccupied. Inflicting more damage to Russia long term by dragging out the war is the realpolitik move. It's not like Putin gives a shit about killing off poor ugly slavic men anyways. The people that matter are the better off normies in the cities.

Something I think looks bad for Russia's political elite is how in Moscow the better off normies are still partying in their nightclubs with women and the war isn't really being 'felt' economically.

Now it would be one thing if this was like a far off war of minor importance. But this is a really serious war that if Russia loses this and the West gets most of Ukraine then Russia is in major long term trouble.

 

[lifesucksandyoudie]

Something I think looks bad for Russia's political elite is how in Moscow the better off normies are still partying in their nightclubs with women and the war isn't really being 'felt' economically.

Now it would be one thing if this was like a far off war of minor importance. But this is a really serious war that if Russia loses this and the West gets most of Ukraine then Russia is in major long term trouble.

I think Putin would rather import more migrants to act as cannon fodder than recruit from the cities

 

[_meh]

I think Putin would rather import more migrants to act as cannon fodder than recruit from the cities

There are Nepalis fighting in Ukraine to try to gain Russian citizenship.

 

[WizardofSoda]

I hate how long it's taking

The West gets emboldened the longer it goes.

 

[_meh]

I think Putin would rather import more migrants to act as cannon fodder than recruit from the cities

"Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, hundreds of Nepalese men – many with no military experience – have been enlisted by Russian recruiters. President Vladimir Putin has publicly promised citizenship and a high salary to those who sign up to fight for Russia. This has led to a massive recruitment campaign, deemed illegal by the Nepalese government. So far, at least 33 Nepalese soldiers have lost their lives on the front line, but the true number could be significantly higher. FRANCE 24's Nejma Bentrad, Nabeel Ahmed, Rojita Adhikari and Khansa Juned report."

Focus - 'They put us all in front': Nepalese men recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, hundreds of Nepalese men – many with no military experience – have been enlisted by Russian recruiters. President Vladimir Putin has publicly promised citizenship…

www.france24.com

 

[WizardofSoda]

You probably know about the Western/NATO mercenaries already being in Ukraine (and France obliged to send some of theirs, outrightly).

Anyway, I thought Russia didn't have any issues with weapons production? Wouldn't be anything to different to what they had back in the USSR (since they rely on some of the stuff that was built over from the Soviet period). But I guess things maybe different this time.

Ya with a major country France starting to send in troops even small numbers and saying it should send openly a lot, its a very big deal.

The NATO mercenaries haven't gone as well as NATO hoped. They had hoped to have like 50% Ukrainians, 50% mercenaries. The problem is the war is too bloody so from what I have read most mercenaries only went in briefly then when they saw mass death including of many mercenaries they left. And its hard to get more. But I think NATO is working on how to get more.

 

[lifesucksandyoudie]

There are Nepalis fighting in Ukraine to try to gain Russian citizenship.

It's easier than paying the wives and family members of dead soldiers that's for sure

 

[_meh]

Ya with a major country France starting to send in troops even small numbers and saying it should send openly a lot, its a very big deal.

The NATO mercenaries haven't gone as well as NATO hoped. They had hoped to have like 50% Ukrainians, 50% mercenaries. The problem is the war is too bloody so from what I have read most mercenaries only went in briefly then when they saw mass death including of many mercenaries they left. And its hard to get more. But I think NATO is working on how to get more.

A lot of the Western/NATO mercenaries at the start of the war were excited to go into Ukraine thirsty for blood, but now they're not too eager to go in there.

 

[_meh]

It's easier than paying the wives and family members of dead soldiers that's for sure

Oh yeah definitely.

Russia doesn't have much of a robust welfare state either to begin with. It's definitely a heavy burden on Russia. The average age in Russia has also considerably increased sometime. Most of the immigration to Russia comes Central Asian countries (that were formerly apart of the USSR) and a bit of Ukraine. The population of Ethnic Russians are also going down while the population of minorities within Russia is rising up too.

 

[Alexander400]

I think that Russia is taking long to make gains and i really disagree with copers who say that this is 5d chess because it will bleed out the west. I dont think the russians cant take ground just very slowly and also i dont feel like this is because of bad leadership but simply the nature of the war. In modern combat you cant even assault a position without getting picked off by drones, its honestly indignifying to fight in such gay combat in which some faggot sitting way behind the lines is recording you bleed out from his epic drone strike.

I also have to remind you that this war showcased how unprepared for war most european countries really are. If you dont border russia then your military is shit

 

[_meh]

I think that Russia is taking long to make gains and i really disagree with copers who say that this is 5d chess because it will bleed out the west. I dont think the russians cant take ground just very slowly and also i dont feel like this is because of bad leadership but simply the nature of the war. In modern combat you cant even assault a position without getting picked off by drones, its honestly indignifying to fight in such gay combat in which some faggot sitting way behind the lines is recording you bleed out from his epic drone strike.

I also have to remind you that this war showcased how unprepared for war most european countries really are. If you dont border russia then your military is shit

Yeah. Also, running a war is quite costly (which can easily cost into the 100th+ millions), and if Russia were to hasten it (it would put a dent in their economy, but otherwise Russia's economy is doing well at the moment). Funnily they still employ some of those same defense mechanisms that was used in WW2.

Most of the European countries just hopes that America will defend them.

 

[lifesucksandyoudie]

Oh yeah definitely.

Russia doesn't have much of a robust welfare state either to begin with. It's definitely a heavy burden on Russia. The average age in Russia has also considerably increased sometime. Most of the immigration to Russia comes Central Asian countries (that were formerly apart of the USSR) and a bit of Ukraine. The population of Ethnic Russians are also going down while the population of minorities within Russia is rising up too.

The more Russia tries to switch to a war footing, the less it can provide for its welfare system. You can make a case if the economic setbacks worsen, the country would become less attractive for any potential migrants to move there at all

 

[edgelordcel]

SLAVA UKRAINI. WE WILL WIN. SIEGG HEIL KILL THE CHURKA RUSSIANS.
@wereq

 

[WizardofSoda]

I think Putin would rather import more migrants to act as cannon fodder than recruit from the cities

Ya Russia is getting mass migration from the Central Asian Muslim countries of young adults to prop up its population. And Russia seems to now be getting foreigners from Russia's many allies like India to join up to the military.

 

[WizardofSoda]

The more Russia tries to switch to a war footing, the less it can provide for its welfare system. You can make a case if the economic setbacks worsen, the country would become less attractive for any potential migrants to move there at all

The new defense minister is basically a communist who seems willing to move on Russia's rich to get money if necessary. But that is going to cause major political battles in Russia if he goes for it.

What is weakness is its now 2 years into this war, and Russia still hasn't moved to a war economy or mass mobilization. They sort of half ass have done a lot of stuff trying to do it on the cheap and politically acceptable way so Russians don't feel the war.

One interesting argument is this is how Kings used to fight wars. The public thought as long as you don't raise my taxes or make me fight, the King can go off and fight his wars.

 

[lifesucksandyoudie]

The new defense minister is basically a communist who seems willing to move on Russia's rich to get money if necessary. But that is going to cause major political battles in Russia if he goes for it.

What is weakness is its now 2 years into this war, and Russia still hasn't moved to a war economy or mass mobilization. They sort of half ass have done a lot of stuff trying to do it on the cheap and politically acceptable way so Russians don't feel the war.

One interesting argument is this is how Kings used to fight wars. The public thought as long as you don't raise my taxes or make me fight, the King can go off and fight his wars.

Cleaning house should've been done earlier but it's better late than never. Belousov seems to better understand how to organize the economy to fight a long war compared to his predecessors.

 

[WizardofSoda]

I think that Russia is taking long to make gains and i really disagree with copers who say that this is 5d chess because it will bleed out the west. I dont think the russians cant take ground just very slowly and also i dont feel like this is because of bad leadership but simply the nature of the war. In modern combat you cant even assault a position without getting picked off by drones, its honestly indignifying to fight in such gay combat in which some faggot sitting way behind the lines is recording you bleed out from his epic drone strike.

I also have to remind you that this war showcased how unprepared for war most european countries really are. If you dont border russia then your military is shit

Ya things are much more difficult now. Like Ukraine has these roads that go everywhere with the endless farm towns and cities. And unlike in ww2 in that area, everybody in Ukraine has vechicles or NATO can easily pay for them. Well something like a regular truck or even VW car is really effective for transporting soldiers, ammo and supplies around.

 

[WizardofSoda]

Cleaning house should've been done earlier but it's better late than never. Belousov seems to better understand how to organize the economy to fight a long war compared to his predecessors.

Thats right, Russia has shown very good adaptability in the war so far. Something we forget about ww2 is the whole buildup took a long time. For governments 2 years is a long time, but like everything it sort of grows exponentially. Like in ww2 US military production was doubling every year.

 

[post31]

Russia losing a strategic early warning radar system is a new twist in the Ukraine conflict that could have further reaching ramifications.

 

[lifesucksandyoudie]

Thats right, Russia has shown very good adaptability in the war so far. Something we forget about ww2 is the whole buildup took a long time. For governments 2 years is a long time, but like everything it sort of grows exponentially. Like in ww2 US military production was doubling every year.

WW2 US manufacturing was something else. It was really a once in a lifetime feat I doubt we'll see replicated anytime soon. I can forsee more modest growths for Russia albeit noticeable ones if they haul their asses into gear, although the magnitude and scale of the increase depends on how efficiently and quickly they can mobilize.

 

[WizardofSoda]

I could be wrong but I think the Kharkov offensive/expanding the frontlines there will be the main addition Russia does in the war in 2024. Besides the usual grinding fighting across the frontlines.

Why I think that is Russia itself said it is adding 120,000 net army soldiers a year. And I know you can sustainably deploy 1/3rd of deployable combat soldiers at a time. Which would be 40,000. Then I read the estimates that Russia has 40-50,000 soldiers in Belgorod for launching this Kharkiv offensive. So all these numbers fit together.

It could also be if Russia adds 120,000 net army soldiers in 2025, that will be the same scenario for the Sumy offensive.

 

[Angry_runt]

Currently neither side has the capacity to move the front significantly. Putin's best shot is to wait until the next US election and hope Trump wins or Republicans take over the Senate or increase their share of the House. Then aid to Ukraine will dry up and they'll be forced to negotiate. If the aid continues, the war will continue.

 

[NorthernWind]

SLAVA UKRAINI. WE WILL WIN. SIEGG HEIL KILL THE CHURKA RUSSIANS.
@wereq