But the probabilities don't matter if there is an endless amount of time for them to be tried. As long as the probability exists then it will eventually happen even if it takes a near infinite amount of time for that to occur. You look at the outcome and deduct backwards that it is a product of intelligent design.
There weren't billions and billions of iterations of our universe, let alone billions and billions of tries at the Goldilocks zone for a planet, let alone the track of life's evolution (of which we have a sample size of one; by that I mean life didn't try and fail billions and billions of times, as far as the evidence shows), let alone the far less than a billion tries of life at intelligent homonids and ancestors (there's about a couple of dozen, if that) from which we - Homo Sapiens - arrived.
You are saying that there is no proof of the universe being a cyclical universe and that on the contrary there is proof of intelligent design because universe is too perfectly designed to accommodate life for it to be a coincidence.
We don't have proof of the cyclic universe. It's only a proposed model. I also didn't use the word proof for intelligent design (if you have design of life and the universe, can it even be considered unintelligent?).
From what we know so far the universe had an origin point some billion years in the past from which everything expanded. If this starting point was a product of intelligent design and not a cyclical happening of some kind then what existed before the intelligent actor decided to begin the universe?
We don't know what existed before our reality. That's not a comprehensible question in concrete terms. Not only that, but it's an epistemological ceiling i.e., it's impossible to know.
Was he just twiddling his thumbs all day long, or maybe he himself runs it in some cyclical fashion, how did this actor even came into such power, do we just accept that he is beyond the laws of science and exists on some higher level?
If someone creates a thing and creates the rules governing the thing, then, by necessity, the creator of the thing is above the rules created and is not bound or limited by them.
To me it just looks like adding elements to a story to explain something we don't know. Just like Zeus was the god of thunder before we understood how thunder works. I can concede that the current universe is designed in such a way that life can be accommodated, I do not know much about science but I am going to assume that if the laws of physics were even slightly tempered with life would not be possible anywhere in the universe and that there is no concrete-in-your-face proof that universe is cyclical as much as the universe itself is proof that we exist because the conditions are right for us to exist. I can agree with this part of the argument, but linking it back to a intelligent Actor is something I just cannot accept logically.
It's not God of the gaps, but if it helps you to see it that way, go ahead.
If we are going to make assumptions about the universe and bring up an progenitor into the picture, then why shouldn't we similar make assumptions about the universe being cyclical and we being a product of random chance.
Because one is a rational claim that attempts to resolve the problem of causality and infinite regress, while the other is an empirical claim.
One is a force of nature that we well observed in this world and the other is a mythical all-mighty creator that we have no proof of existing as he has never revealed himself to us in any provable way.
Really? Chance is a force of nature? Which force is it? Is it the fifth force? Is it one that supersedes the existing four? How do you measure it, and what are its units? Does it affect every other force or only some? Which ones? Who discovered this force?
You say chance is an unreasonable explanation, why is it not reasonable, explain that. I think your example with footprints is good with what it is trying to imply but if you add context to it that you would come across a random set of footprints a near infinite time before this and only this time you reached a perfect set of footprints that you could infer belongs to a person and not just some byproduct of nature it would explain the mystery away.
In the end, we are going to have to make assumption either-way, because we lack knowledge or perhaps we are simply incapable to understand the true nature of the universe with our current state of existence.
It's unreasonable by comparison, because we can infer and deduce better explanations in its place. You're loading it with the assumption that there were billions and billions or whatever large arbitrary number of tries to get to where we are, but we don't have evidence for that. We don't know that there were trillions and gazillions and gorillions of universes that tried to "roll" for intelligent, conscious life and we happened in one of those iterations as an event outcome.
And even if we were to suppose all of that, how did these rolls happen? What is this "luck" force that did the rolling? Where did it come from? What governs
that force? Was it one universe over and over, or countless ones until the desired event occurred?
You still not convinced me why chance is not good enough.
Tell me, as long as something is possible regardless of how little the probability, is it not bound to happen given an infinite timeframe? Isn't that effectively chance, why isn't that good enough of an explanation?
I am not really convinced by my own arguments either, I am trying to reach something I can settle on internally but so far I have failed to do so, this is my best attempt yet but it has some fallacies to it too. For example, even if we do assume universe is cyclical and existed forever, that seems so incomprehensible to me, how could there be no 'first' cycle? We measure things, we can count, how do we measure something that never began? On the other hand, the other option is even more incomprehensible, to say that the universe had a beginning then and will have an end, then what the fuck is on either end then. Very hard.
I do not think human mind can really grow to comprehend this world.
But we must try.
There's a fundamental problem with appealing to chance that adds yet another layer of meaningless to any discussion of this sort that deals with hard numbers: We don't know the true probabilities. All we can do is make guesses and estimates. And even if we did know them, they wouldn't help explain anything extra and shed light on unknowns.
What you've done, in essence, is to replace the explanation of an origin point of reality as the causal starting point that is ascribed to a mind with intent and infinite power with a mindless force (of equivalent metaphysical weighting) that operates in an infinite, cyclical cosmology, whereas the "god" explanation operates infinitely, but with a finite cosmology.
Psychologically, I understand why people do this. "God" has too much baggage that comes from religion and this is unpalatable for many people. Why? Because if we were to hold that there is a god who created all of this, then why did he create all of this suffering and make me this way etc. etc. It's easier to cope when it's all attributed to random chance, because random chance is fair, and a god who created things with intent means that he created inherent unfairness with what we observe amongst ourselves.