You are badly informed.
'Two random ambassadors' - UK prime minister John Major, USA secretary of state Baker, German foreign minister etc
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OK, change that to "people who might as well have been random ambassadors when the expansions happened
".
Look, governments and circumstances change. If you want to have a long-lasting agreement in geopolitics, you have to make it official. Getting some people to say something in private once or twice is meaningless when those people get replaced by others with other ideas and convictions.
Seriously, your credibility as a serious member of this forum is under question.
And here I thought I was starting to sound a bit melodramatic
.
Almost all you wrote in these paragraphs is fallacy.
How? Population, economy and industrial capacities are the foundations of national power.
•Russia already prevailed over Eastern Europe after defeat of Napoleon and helped to save Austrian empire by crushing Hungarian revolt.
In the former case they were a part of multiple coalitions of allies and in the latter case they brought an overwhelming power into a civil war between two roughly equal factions of which one was being increasingly knocked on the ground. Neither comes close to taking over a region with a similarly large population to itself while the rest of Europe either actually intervenes against them or is hostile.
•Soviet Union was far more devastated than most of Europe. The reason why Soviets would be able to control significant part of Europe after the war is because they build a huge industry and huge army which defeated Germany not because 'Europe was devastated' ( soviet loses were huge, they lost 27-30 million of population ).
True, but most of EE was likewise just as devastated as the USSR. Poland's civilian loses, percentage wise, were pretty similar to the Soviet ones, after all. However, the main differences are that those countries' industrial and military capabilities were pretty much completely destroyed, while the Soviet ones had survived the war more or less intact.
•Russia clearly has an advantage over CEE.
Sure, its a single country that spends a relatively high percentage of its GDP on its military and has one of the highest numbers of military personnel per capita in the world, so it very much has something of a military edge over a bunch of smaller and less militarized countries. My point is that, with those countries's populations, economies and industries, those advantages would almost certainly eventually disappear if those countries got a reason to genuinely fight Russia.
Russia still plays significant role in space ( can you say this about any CEE country )
True, however if I remember right, the number of Russia's orbital launches has mostly stagnated since the breakup of the USSR. Meanwhile, space capabilities have only grown for the CEE countries, since they were starting pretty much from the bottom. A good number of those countries are members of the ESA and play an increasingly important role there as their economies and capabilities grow.
But yeah, Russia has a serious edge here, I won't lie.
Russia even has its own satellite navigation system like GPS.
So does the EU, and its Eastern members are participating in it as much as they can. Not much admittedly, but just as with the ESA in general, from what I've seen, pretty much every new satellite there is guaranteed to have at least some Czech and Polish companies participating in their creation.
Russia is one of the leaders in nuclear plants technology ( any CEE country? )
True, but a fair few of those countries are actually quite close to Russia given that they are currently trying to put themselves neaar the forefront of SMR usage.
Also, I genuinely gotta thank you for taking our discussion into this area boyo
(not being sarcastic at all, I don't know when I would've checked that otherwise and thus missed out on it if you didn't give me a reason to check this
), because I just checked out Scimago (the site/project mapping the number of scientific and technical articles countries and journals produce) and it seems that they've recently,
finally added the 2023 values.
So, why talk only about nuclear technology
? In terms of total output, Russia's 107056 scientific papers it produced in 2023 is lower than just the combined numbers of Poland, Czechia, Ukraine and Romania. Even if you ignore Ukraine, the former three are so close to overtaking Russia in the total count that you can simply add in just about any CEE country and they push this group ahead, I've just checked that with Hungary, Slovakia, and your own country of Lithuania.
A similar patter of course holds in the different subject areas. In
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Poland and Czechia alone have higher output 2023 than Russia. In
Chemical Engineering, Russia has a better standing, but Poland, Czechia, Romania and Hungary put together already have more. In
Computer Science, Poland and Ukraine are higher, and once again, if you ignore Ukraine, Czechia and Romania more than nicely make up for it, while in the
Artifical Intelligence category in this area, Poland is already ahead of Russia. And so on.
Also defence industry. How many submarines CEE countries produce?
Very few if any, because they don't need them being mostly landlocked countries
. Nevertheless, those countries still have mostly decent arms manufacturing capabilities given their size. For example, I've recently read a Politico article on how little 155mm shells NATO is capable of giving Ukraine, which also mentioned that the artillery to fire those shells likewise isn't exactly plentiful, and that only four types of them are being produced. No idea if it was in the entire NATO or just in its European members, but probably the latter, and it mentioned that of those four, one are our (Slovakia's) Zuzanas and one of the others is a Polish one. A pretty important military asset, manufactured in two of EU's newer members. Not bad I'd say.
Can they rival Russia in electronic warfare?
Maybe? I mean, we almost certainly won't get to see this, since there's just about 0% chance of Russia actually attacking NATO, as I've mentioned, but I don't see why not? All analyses I've seen claim that those countries tend to have good software developing capabilities on the whole (as does Russia admittedly) so I don't see why not. The EU's cybersecurity centre is located in Romania, for example
.
Also, more seriously now, although Russia dominates in artillery, air strikes and so on, Ukraine has apparently managed to widen its lead in FPV drone strikes on personnel and vehicles:
View: https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1775179061381185561#m
And this is exactly what I'm talking about and meaninglessly wasting time trying to create an argument for on this semi-obscure forum for outcasts when I have a pretty big Uni project which I've barely worked on so far due tomorrow
. Basically, yes, Russia has overall military edge over the countries it once dominated, however, there's only so far that goes in the long-term, or would go in a protracted conflict. Stockpiles dry up, new technologies enter the battlefield, and so on. If Ukraine alone is capable of more or less matching Russia in drone warfare like this, why couldn't the other countries, which are richer, more advanced, and together have population not critically lower than Russia's?