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@Dregster @comradespiderman29 @ethniccel1
I have predicted the Iranian operations against Israel will begin on Aug-13. As the Olympics ends on Aug-11. In early 2022, Russia delayed the invasion of Ukraine until Feb-22 which was 2 days after the Beijing Winter Olympics ended on Feb-20.
Iran gave Israel a clear warning a few months back by shooting like 1,000 missiles and drones at Israel. But the targets were chosen to not kill Israelis, I don't think any Israelis were killed, and to hit like areas in military bases where there wasn't soldiers or equipment. It was also a chance for the Iranians to test various missile and drone systems in action to see how they performed against the Israeli air defenses. And to see how the Israeli air defenses operated. This warning I believe came after the Israelis had attacked targets in Damascus, Syria killing high ranking Iranian military and intelligence people, and probably Syrian army people. After Iran's 1,000 missiles strike, Israel then hit some minor targets in Iran but it was very minor and no reported deaths.
Back in late 2022 I guessed that during 2023 Iran would open a second front in the world war. I didn't know how or even where, I didn't guess in Israel. But this logic came because Iran's main ally Russia is under severe threat from an alliance of nations, and its at that moment you have to help your ally. Waiting until Russia might go down would be too dangerous for national security, as then the West would come for Iran sooner or later, but then Russia wouldn't be there to help Iran. So like in prior world wars, you have to go when your ally needs help. So in late 2023 Iran did imo help to create a war in Israel, and the Houthis doubled down their operations in the sea lanes next to Yemen. Also the missile attacks by the Houthis at Western shipping and Navy ships was a way to test defense systems and missiles.
Things take time to scale up. With the Israeli army in action in Gaza it was obvious that Iran would try to spread out Israeli forces by hitting Israel from Lebanon and Syria with militias firing missiles. The bigger Iranian strategy imo is to draw in Western attention, money and weaponry to the Middle East, and thus away from Ukraine. Same with why China is threatening Taiwan, it forces the West to deploy resources there. For example weapons that were being sent to Ukraine by the USA were instead diverted to Israel. Its not just Israel in the Middle East either, its the Gulf Arabs too, and also factions in Iraq who are allied mainly with the West.
My view lately is Iran was under increasing pressure to do something to help the Gazans. If Iran just did the usual Muslim cuck thing and talked big then didn't help when Muslims were getting killed, especially killed on this scale, then it would show them to be weak. Part of having national security is that you have many allies who trust you. A weak cuck country who doesn't help its allies, is not a reliable ally. So even if you don't do it for honor, you have to help your friends - even in losing causes. Thats why I view the US war in Vietnam was the right thing to do. Even though the US ultimately lost, it demonstrated just how far America would go for an ally. The American army also came out of Vietnam battle hardened facing state of the art weaponry from China and the Soviet Union.
When that helicopter with the Iranian president got taken out it already looked bad and it was blamed on an accident - which maybe it was. But unlikely, more likely it was either foreign agents or competing faction in Iran. Then to have the leader of Hamas taken out in Tehran that is just shameful. Especially after the warning Iran gave Israel a few months back. Iran has to respond.
The question is how to respond. One thinking is that if they go really hard on Israel, then the US Navy and Airforce is going to come at Iran and perhaps Iranian shipping in the region. So Iran should then pre-emptively attack American bases and shipping in the region as part of the operations. Although I don't think that will happen to start. Iran also hasn't sent its own militias yet at Israel, these are battle hardened militias from years of war in the war in Syria. Same with Hezbollah in Lebanon these are hardened soldiers.
I think it will be operations over months that will start with missiles, drones, artillery, mortars from Lebanon and Syria at Israel. With the Iranian militias moving towards the Israeli border in Lebanon and Syria and getting ready for long, brutal combat that could go on for years.
Iran shouldn't be underestimated as a nation. Its a nation of 87 million people, heavily industrialized, tons of smart engineers, computer programmers and co. In addition to its own technology it has Russian and Chinese technology. There are also tens and tens of millions of people in the middle east who are allied with Iran.
I have predicted the Iranian operations against Israel will begin on Aug-13. As the Olympics ends on Aug-11. In early 2022, Russia delayed the invasion of Ukraine until Feb-22 which was 2 days after the Beijing Winter Olympics ended on Feb-20.
Iran gave Israel a clear warning a few months back by shooting like 1,000 missiles and drones at Israel. But the targets were chosen to not kill Israelis, I don't think any Israelis were killed, and to hit like areas in military bases where there wasn't soldiers or equipment. It was also a chance for the Iranians to test various missile and drone systems in action to see how they performed against the Israeli air defenses. And to see how the Israeli air defenses operated. This warning I believe came after the Israelis had attacked targets in Damascus, Syria killing high ranking Iranian military and intelligence people, and probably Syrian army people. After Iran's 1,000 missiles strike, Israel then hit some minor targets in Iran but it was very minor and no reported deaths.
Back in late 2022 I guessed that during 2023 Iran would open a second front in the world war. I didn't know how or even where, I didn't guess in Israel. But this logic came because Iran's main ally Russia is under severe threat from an alliance of nations, and its at that moment you have to help your ally. Waiting until Russia might go down would be too dangerous for national security, as then the West would come for Iran sooner or later, but then Russia wouldn't be there to help Iran. So like in prior world wars, you have to go when your ally needs help. So in late 2023 Iran did imo help to create a war in Israel, and the Houthis doubled down their operations in the sea lanes next to Yemen. Also the missile attacks by the Houthis at Western shipping and Navy ships was a way to test defense systems and missiles.
Things take time to scale up. With the Israeli army in action in Gaza it was obvious that Iran would try to spread out Israeli forces by hitting Israel from Lebanon and Syria with militias firing missiles. The bigger Iranian strategy imo is to draw in Western attention, money and weaponry to the Middle East, and thus away from Ukraine. Same with why China is threatening Taiwan, it forces the West to deploy resources there. For example weapons that were being sent to Ukraine by the USA were instead diverted to Israel. Its not just Israel in the Middle East either, its the Gulf Arabs too, and also factions in Iraq who are allied mainly with the West.
My view lately is Iran was under increasing pressure to do something to help the Gazans. If Iran just did the usual Muslim cuck thing and talked big then didn't help when Muslims were getting killed, especially killed on this scale, then it would show them to be weak. Part of having national security is that you have many allies who trust you. A weak cuck country who doesn't help its allies, is not a reliable ally. So even if you don't do it for honor, you have to help your friends - even in losing causes. Thats why I view the US war in Vietnam was the right thing to do. Even though the US ultimately lost, it demonstrated just how far America would go for an ally. The American army also came out of Vietnam battle hardened facing state of the art weaponry from China and the Soviet Union.
When that helicopter with the Iranian president got taken out it already looked bad and it was blamed on an accident - which maybe it was. But unlikely, more likely it was either foreign agents or competing faction in Iran. Then to have the leader of Hamas taken out in Tehran that is just shameful. Especially after the warning Iran gave Israel a few months back. Iran has to respond.
The question is how to respond. One thinking is that if they go really hard on Israel, then the US Navy and Airforce is going to come at Iran and perhaps Iranian shipping in the region. So Iran should then pre-emptively attack American bases and shipping in the region as part of the operations. Although I don't think that will happen to start. Iran also hasn't sent its own militias yet at Israel, these are battle hardened militias from years of war in the war in Syria. Same with Hezbollah in Lebanon these are hardened soldiers.
I think it will be operations over months that will start with missiles, drones, artillery, mortars from Lebanon and Syria at Israel. With the Iranian militias moving towards the Israeli border in Lebanon and Syria and getting ready for long, brutal combat that could go on for years.
Iran shouldn't be underestimated as a nation. Its a nation of 87 million people, heavily industrialized, tons of smart engineers, computer programmers and co. In addition to its own technology it has Russian and Chinese technology. There are also tens and tens of millions of people in the middle east who are allied with Iran.
