[Interesting] Birthday Problem

[Deleted member 1780]

I just started a course in Probability Theory, and we went over the Birthday Problem -- a pretty counter intuitive conclusion arises out of it.

The Birthday Problem is about guessing what the probability that at least one pair of people have the same birthday in a group of K people. Paradoxically, the probability is about 50% if the group is around 22 people. That means if you have around 22 people, it is about a 50-50 shot at least one pair will have the same birthday. It just doesn't feel right, but it is true.

Here is a graph of the probability for this same question for different sizes of groups:

Even around a group size of 16 or so, you have a 25 percent chance one pair of matching birthdays will be found!
Probability Theory has thoroughly pissed me off so far because none of the conclusions feel right...

 

[Haywire]

how can i use this to get pussy?

 

[Sparrow's Song]

What are the odds of a hapa being born on The Day of Retribution?

 

[FinnCel]

how can i use this to get pussy?

Be chad

 

[Deleted member 19971]

Too low iq to understand numbers

 

[Deleted member 1780]

Too low iq to understand numbers

The Birthday Problem just shows that human intuition about probability is really, really off from the truth.

If you had a group of 22 people, would you guess that it is a 50% chance that you will find a pair of people with the same birthday?

Almost no one would.

 

[Deleted member 19971]

The Birthday Problem just shows that human intuition about probability is really, really off from the truth.

If you had a group of 22 people, would you guess that it is a 50% chance that you will find a pair of people with the same birthday?

Almost no one would.

Bro just don't bother replying to me anymore

 

[needsolution]

Too low iq to understand numbers