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France and Germany are in a similar situation. In 2022 when industrial warfare broke out in Europe again, Germany promised a major expansion of its military both in funding and the standing army. But those plans went basically nowhere, Germany doesn't have more money and they said they won't cut social spending.
Now Germany's economy has declined further and they are starting to do austerity for that social spending anyway. And France is beginning austerity as well as they are out of money. Yesterday I read Britain had planned to increase defense funding to a pitiful 2.5% of GDP, but now they said that won't happen for at least 10 years.
I think these governments legitimately don't have the money or organizational ability to do it. But why is it dangerous?
Their plan is basically hope that the Ukraine army holds out. Ukraine now by far has the number #2 standing army in Europe, with Russia as 1st place. If Ukraine goes down, the Russians will merge the Ukrainian army into the Russian army. As Russia has done in the 4 SE provinces of Ukraine that it has taken. At this point the Russian and Ukrainian armies are battle hardened. It would probably take a year of heavy fighting for another European army to become battle hardened. In which time there would be severe losses in casualties and in ground lost.
Many of the East European nations would simply flip to the Russian side if the Russian + Ukrainian army rolled up to their doorstep. That is why no doubt in my mind Hungary, Slovakia and others are nearly on the Russian side already. They aren't confident that NATO can win this war so they want to get in Russia's good graces. Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece are Orthodox nations like Russia and Ukraine.
China could get behind Russia and Iran with endless manufacturing and money if it wanted. China might not do that, but in national defense you don't prepare planning for the best case scenario. I believe the Ukrainian army will hold out. But the point is it might not. And there could also be a palace coup in Ukraine with pro-Russian forces taking control.
Now Germany's economy has declined further and they are starting to do austerity for that social spending anyway. And France is beginning austerity as well as they are out of money. Yesterday I read Britain had planned to increase defense funding to a pitiful 2.5% of GDP, but now they said that won't happen for at least 10 years.
I think these governments legitimately don't have the money or organizational ability to do it. But why is it dangerous?
Their plan is basically hope that the Ukraine army holds out. Ukraine now by far has the number #2 standing army in Europe, with Russia as 1st place. If Ukraine goes down, the Russians will merge the Ukrainian army into the Russian army. As Russia has done in the 4 SE provinces of Ukraine that it has taken. At this point the Russian and Ukrainian armies are battle hardened. It would probably take a year of heavy fighting for another European army to become battle hardened. In which time there would be severe losses in casualties and in ground lost.
Many of the East European nations would simply flip to the Russian side if the Russian + Ukrainian army rolled up to their doorstep. That is why no doubt in my mind Hungary, Slovakia and others are nearly on the Russian side already. They aren't confident that NATO can win this war so they want to get in Russia's good graces. Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece are Orthodox nations like Russia and Ukraine.
China could get behind Russia and Iran with endless manufacturing and money if it wanted. China might not do that, but in national defense you don't prepare planning for the best case scenario. I believe the Ukrainian army will hold out. But the point is it might not. And there could also be a palace coup in Ukraine with pro-Russian forces taking control.
