Blackpill How unlikely the 6/6/6 really is (STUDY THREAD) (MUST READ)

[AdExpress]

So this was inspired from an old r/FDS post where she says the 6/6/6 that is often criticised is actually just wanting an average guy, since all of these apparently are average in their respective characteristics. Obviously this is not true, since even if all these were the averages (they're not) for someone to have ALL 6 would make them much more than average, since not everyone with 6 figures will be 6 feet, not everyone with 6 inches will have 6 figures, and not everyone with 6 feet will have 6 inches.


View: https://www.reddit.com/r/FemaleDatingStrategy/comments/ma8h0a/the_666_rule_is_just_asking_for_a_normal_guy/?utm_source=embedv2&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_content=whitespace


I'm going to work out just how much men then are able to satisfy the mythical "6/6/6" that all foids regardless of how average or ugly they are think they deserve. We'll use the USA as the standard, since they have the most data available for this topic and have a good amount of diversity in people to be able to calculate for all people worldwide.

6 inches

A study conducted of 1,661 sexually active men showed the average penis size in America was only 14.15cm, or 5.75 inches, with an SD of 2.66.

Erect penile length and circumference dimensions of 1,661 sexually active men in the United States - PubMed

In this sample of men who measured their erect penile length and circumference for the purposes of receiving a condom sized to fit their erect penis, we found a mean erect penile length of 14.15 cm and a mean erect penile circumference of 12.23 cm. The self-reported erect penile dimensions in...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Using this SD we can calculate to find that 34.09% of US men are above 6 inches. Already we can see this is much higher than just "average", especially since 6-7 inches in itself is often criticised as nothing special, or average from women who have dealt with guys that size, so we'll go onto the next demands.

6 feet

A study of 2690 men in America showed the average height of men in America was 175.1cm, or 5ft 8.9 inches.
file:///C:/Users/abada/Downloads/cdc_174595_DS1.pdf

Now if we were to use the SD provided of 7.49 cm we would find that 14.9% of men in the US are above ft. This seems slightly lower than expected, which it is because they used men who are 50 years and older, men who aren't competing on the dating/marriage market enough to be able to qualify here. So we'll exclude them out and find that the average on adult men under 50 is roughly 176.3cm or 5ft 9.4. Using the same SD we find that 18.94% of men are above 6ft which is higher but still quite low.

We now start to realise how low probability it would be to find both a guy above 6ft and above 6 inches. Infact if you extrapolated both these studies onto the whole adult male population of America, the probability of a random guy having both is around 6.5% or 1 in SIXTEEN.

6 figures

I was initially hesistant in including this, since money isn't a necessity when it comes to seducing a woman, and won't cause any real affinity towards you to be able to sustain the partnership. However women are now starting to earn more money than men in the USA and will soon have no need to commit to a guy with money less than them once their sexual SMV starts falling off.

And if we're looking at this from a marriage POV, which is where the 6/6/6 stems from, definitely it would have to be enough of an upgrade on the woman's finances to be able to entice her into committing, which is where the 6 figures comes into play.

A quick search online shows from a recent YouGov study roughly 25% of men in America earn 100k or more. Overall this is double the amount of women (12%), the gap has been closing slightly over the past few decades, but definitely not "average" regardless

Who are high income earners in the US and what do they think?

Explore the demographics and attitudes of high-income earning Americans, including their views on education, job satisfaction, and retirement.

business.yougov.com

However the average age of a guy earning 100k+ is roughly 40-45 so again this is skewed towards much older men who are unlikely to be the ones women are looking for on the dating/marriage market. Based on the data provided, how the population of working men in America under 50 is much higher amongst the 35-44 group than the 25-34 and 18-24. we'll estimate it a lower 22%.


In total the probability of a man having all three is 1.42%, or 1 in SEVENTY ONE. 100% of women are all searching for the ONE IN SEVENTY ONE men who fit their insane standards. The crazy part is that this doesn't factor in face AT ALL. This could be the most ugly guy ever that women wouldn't even look at, guy who looks like he poured acid on his face, or a burn victim. I seriously dread to think how low it would be if you factored in who women find attractive facially, since we already know the dating app data and stats. Something like 0.2% maximum I'm sure.

In short it never began for us or average or even above average men. Even if a guy satisfied all these even being on the lower end of this, which is more likely based on basic bell graph knowledge, such as only 6ft and only 6 inches that wouldn't be enough for a woman who has had sex with over 50 guys. You'd be competing with that one guy with a 9 inch from the club, or that crazy tall 6'10 guy she fucked with one night and would get restless.

And I never even factored how easily she could leave that relationship and how little control you have in the matter. In order to incentivize her to stay you'd have to be someone she couldn't see an upgrade on in any way, so easily at the outlier level of at leasr one of these whilst being above average in ALL. Truly truly over

Thanks for reading

 

[DoomThreeKoala]

It's ovER.

 

[Hoor Al-Ayn]

DR (Did Read)

file:///C:/Users/abada/Downloads/cdc_174595_DS1.pdf

 

[SupremeFroggy]

In total the probability of a man having all three is 1.42%

Wrong. You can't simply multiply the numbers since these variables depend on each other. But your point remains.

 

[AdExpress]

Wrong. You can't simply multiply the numbers since these variables depend on each other. But your point remains.

I didn't i used Grok who used a formula

 

[FemcelHater]

DR (Did Read)

 

[Yabadadabadoo]

Wrong. You can't simply multiply the numbers since these variables depend on each other. But your point remains.

True. There is a relation between height and income as we already know

 

[Deleted member 8078]

High IQ post. Thank you very much for the effort.

 

[Runt171]

TLDR: foids are asking too much as usual

 

[pyromancer1234]

In total the probability of a man having all three is 1.42%, or 1 in SEVENTY ONE. 100% of women are all searching for the ONE IN SEVENTY ONE men who fit their insane standards. The crazy part is that this doesn't factor in face AT ALL. This could be the most ugly guy ever that women wouldn't even look at, guy who looks like he poured acid on his face, or a burn victim. I seriously dread to think how low it would be if you factored in who women find attractive facially, since we already know the dating app data and stats. Something like 0.2% maximum I'm sure.

We all knew 80/20 was putting it gently. It's 98.58/1.42 or more.

 

[Maikowski]

Tell that ugly landwhale the average man is 40 years old and 195 lbs. Unless shes looking for a middle aged fat White man she should STFU

 

[Mr.Breb]

anyway, adult dating, that shit seems like a job offer rather than love. I feel much more envy for teens.
Do you think a foid decides who she loves by seeing a number? Love is a feeling

 

[SmhChan]

By 6 figure they don't mean 100k, more like 200k+

 

[BasedGoyslopReviews]

100/98.6 rule

if u factor in being the right age bracket, like 20-40 or so, and not fat or ugly face or bald
then another half of all those men are out their meme gender standards

 

[DPRKcel]

I want a woman between 18-25, under 5'7, under 60 kilos with under 3 bodycount and a salary of 50k annually if they are bachelor graduates.
Is that too much to ask? isn't that what the average woman is?

 

[ItsOverMan]

By 6 figure they don't mean 100k, more like 200k+

Really, these days they want $1 million+. $100k was an impressive income in 1977.

 

[KhatcodaiA3]

Nice breakdown, never expected women to think logically

 

[LastGerman]

6 inches

A study conducted of 1,661 sexually active men showed the average penis size in America was only 14.15cm, or 5.75 inches, with an SD of 2.66.

5.75 inches and 6 inches are small. 6 inches looks malformed and it is, indeed, malformed.

Now if we were to use the SD provided of 7.49 cm we would find that 14.9% of men in the US are above ft. This seems slightly lower than expected, which it is because they used men who are 50 years and older, men who aren't competing on the dating/marriage market enough to be able to qualify here. So we'll exclude them out and find that the average on adult men under 50 is roughly 176.3cm or 5ft 9.4. Using the same SD we find that 18.94% of men are above 6ft which is higher but still quite low.

We now start to realise how low probability it would be to find both a guy above 6ft and above 6 inches. Infact if you extrapolated both these studies onto the whole adult male population of America, the probability of a random guy having both is around 6.5% or 1 in SIXTEEN.

Let us be honest. I do not really trust this data about it, specially when it comes to penis size.

Nice breakdown, never expected women to think logically

Coming from someone who has a big penis. Of course.

 

[JasonTodd]

It doesn't work like this but if the stats she mentions are constant then:
if the salary is average then only half of men earn it, only half are above average height and only half are over average penis meaning its 12.5% of men not 50%.

 

[JasonTodd]

5.75 inches and 6 inches are small. 6 inches looks malformed and it is, indeed, malformed.



Let us be honest. I do not really trust this data about it, specially when it comes to penis size.



Coming from someone who has a big penis. Of course.

Whats the point of giving a single fuck about dick size when you can't even get laid

 

[LastGerman]

Whats the point of giving a single fuck about dick size when you can't even get laid

And here we go again. Look at that @Itsoverm8
It never ends. It never ends.

 

[JasonTodd]

And here we go again. Look at that @Itsoverm8
It never ends. It never ends.

The coping?

 

[LastGerman]

The coping?

How is that "coping"?

 

[JasonTodd]

How is that "coping"?

I'm asking if you're saying that my comment was cope

I genuinly don't see why dick size would ever matter for a truecel. Height and other things despite being hideous ofc makes life more bearable but aint no one gonna admire my dick lol

 

[JasonTodd]

I want a woman between 18-25, under 5'7, under 60 kilos with under 3 bodycount and a salary of 50k annually if they are bachelor graduates.
Is that too much to ask? isn't that what the average woman is?

Bodycount under 3 at 25 is like 10% of women

Why do you want her to be short?

 

[LastGerman]

I'm asking if you're saying that my comment was cope

I genuinly don't see why dick size would ever matter for a truecel. Height and other things despite being hideous ofc makes life more bearable but aint no one gonna admire my dick lol

I do not think, there was any cope. I also do not use this word anymore or not as often, because normies outside are using it. Normeis destroy everything. I also think, that we are actually unable to cope, even if we want to, because we are unable to overcome it.

When it comes to penis size, it is something so significant. Having a small penis in itself, is absolutely emasculating and humiliating. It is absolutely devastating. Even if one is never going to use it, no man wants to have a small penis. Penis size defines the worth of a man. If you have a small penis, you are not even a man. You will never experience pleasure of joy. Life is devoid of it. You will never get that look from females. The awe in her face. The genuine a reaction when she sees a big penis. You will never get this. Any man who has a big penis, is able t oget this reaction. He jsut has to go on a video chat. I want that, I need that. I want and need it so desperately. This is all I ever wanted.

 

[JasonTodd]

I do not think, there was any cope. I also do not use this word anymore or not as often, because normies outside are using it. Normeis destroy everything. I also think, that we are actually unable to cope, even if we want to, because we are unable to overcome it.

When it comes to penis size, it is something so significant. Having a small penis in itself, is absolutely emasculating and humiliating. It is absolutely devastating. Even if one is never going to use it, no man wants to have a small penis. Penis size defines the worth of a man. If you have a small penis, you are not even a man. You will never experience pleasure of joy. Life is devoid of it. You will never get that look from females. The awe in her face. The genuine a reaction when she sees a big penis. You will never get this. Any man who has a big penis, is able t oget this reaction. He jsut has to go on a video chat. I want that, I need that. I want and need it so desperately. This is all I ever wanted.

This is a male fantasy tho and doesn't reflect reality.

A big dick is only hot on an attractive body. Think of big tits an a landwhale its worth literally nothing. This is how women view us but 10x worse.

I think it matters ofc, everything matters. But in your example of a small penis being emasculating - imagine a short stature then. Its in constant display, its not only the attractiveness of it but also if you can defend yourself, if you can even reach the top shelf.

The height pill is ATLEAST 40x as brutal as the dickpill and the facepill is 5x the heightpill. Thats why i don't think it should be a major concern as in the big picture its so minescule. A chad with a 4 inch dick will have a woman 100x as feral as as 2/10 with 15 inches (jfl), that guy would be seen as repulsive no matter how big his dick is. There's a reason women aren't fawning over elephants massive cocks or men admiring hippos big tits.

This could be a relevant halo and ego boost for a chad but for someone who can't even use it its legit the least important thing imagineable. Its super easy to hide so will never be an issue if you dont make it one.

 

[LastGerman]

This is a male fantasy tho and doesn't reflect reality.

It is a male fantasy yes and it also reflects reality. There are plenty videos from Omegle about it. The females are drooling over it. They are in absolute awe.

A big dick is only hot on an attractive body. Think of big tits an a landwhale its worth literally nothing. This is how women view us but 10x worse.

This is why, when you do it, you only show your penis and nothing else.

I think it matters ofc, everything matters. But in your example of a small penis being emasculating - imagine a short stature then. Its in constant display, its not only the attractiveness of it but also if you can defend yourself, if you can even reach the top shelf.

It is indeed pretty bad. A small stature, short and a bad frame. A small stature in itself is emasculating. This is all absolutely emasculating. And then on top of that, a small penis.

The height pill is ATLEAST 40x as brutal as the dickpill and the facepill is 5x the heightpill. Thats why i don't think it should be a major concern as in the big picture its so minescule. A chad with a 4 inch dick will have a woman 100x as feral as as 2/10 with 15 inches (jfl), that guy would be seen as repulsive no matter how big his dick is. There's a reason women aren't fawning over elephants massive cocks or men admiring hippos big tits.

A Chad with a 4 inch penis? That sounds like an oxymoron. But I get what you trying to get at.

This could be a relevant halo and ego boost for a chad but for someone who can't even use it its legit the least important thing imagineable. Its super easy to hide so will never be an issue if you dont make it one.

It will never be an issue if you do not make it one? Having a small penis is an issue in itself. I am just the one observing it.
I legit do not understand this sentiment. Everyone here knwos how important looks and height is. There is no question. But all of the sudden, when it comes to this topic specifically, all of the sudden, that changes. I am not talking about you or anyone specifically. I have just noticed that. This is alsosomething, that happens outside of the forum as well. It is everywhere. There seems to be some sort of incentive to talk against it.

I also want to add. I immediately agreed with you and the point you brought up about stature because it is the truth. I want you to really be honest about it. Please, just take a minute and disregard anything else. Please, look down at your penis and what is it that you see? Let the penis pill consume you. Because when I look down, all I see, is deformity. Truly, a malformation. I am disgusted by it and not only that. It is absolutely emasculating and humiliating.

 

[JasonTodd]

It is a male fantasy yes and it also reflects reality. There are plenty videos from Omegle about it. The females are drooling over it. They are in absolute awe.



This is why, when you do it, you only show your penis and nothing else.



It is indeed pretty bad. A small stature, short and a bad frame. A small stature in itself is emasculating. This is all absolutely emasculating. And then on top of that, a small penis.



A Chad with a 4 inch penis? That sounds like an oxymoron. But I get what you trying to get at.



It will never be an issue if you do not make it one? Having a small penis is an issue in itself. I am just the one observing it.
I legit do not understand this sentiment. Everyone here knwos how important looks and height is. There is no question. But all of the sudden, when it comes to this topic specifically, all of the sudden, that changes. I am not talking about you or anyone specifically. I have just noticed that. This is alsosomething, that happens outside of the forum as well. It is everywhere. There seems to be some sort of incentive to talk against it.

I also want to add. I immediately agreed with you and the point you brought up about stature because it is the truth. I want you to really be honest about it. Please, just take a minute and disregard anything else. Please, look down at your penis and what is it that you see? Let the penis pill consume you. Because when I look down, all I see, is deformity. truly, a malformation. I am disgusted by it and not only that. It is absolutely emasculating and humiliating.

The omegle thing is a super specific scenario and is some form of fetish probs, is a luxury more than anything else.

The point of penis not being an issue is specifically for someone who's an incel anyways. When is it an issue ever? Not even in dressing rooms is it one because flaccid dick doesn't matter too much and you can just cover up. I'll never get naked in front of a woman anyways so i'd gladly trade my above average dick for an even slightly better face or heigth that would make my day to day a little less miserable.

I do however think the dickpill is blown out of proportion due to ego and therefor don't look at it objectively. In my mind chad = highly attractive face so idk why the small dick would make him not chad, for all we know Brad Pitt one of the biggest chads might be packing a micro.

 

[LastGerman]

The omegle thing is a super specific scenario and is some form of fetish probs, is a luxury more than anything else.

How is that specific or a luxury?

The point of penis not being an issue is specifically for someone who's an incel anyways. When is it an issue ever? Not even in dressing rooms is it one because flaccid dick doesn't matter too much and you can just cover up. I'll never get naked in front of a woman anyways so i'd gladly trade my above average dick for an even slightly better face or heigth that would make my day to day a little less miserable.

It is always an issue. It is an issue by itself. Just let me ask you this. Are you actually affected by the penis pill?

I do however think the dickpill is blown out of proportion due to ego and therefor don't look at it objectively. In my mind chad = highly attractive face so idk why the small dick would make him not chad, for all we know Brad Pitt one of the biggest chads might be packing a micro.

I do not disagree here at all. Quite the opposite, because I do agree here. It is an ego thing. Same for everything else as well. In the end, it all comes down to this.

But I do have to say, that your point about Brad Pitt is way more specific, than my point about Omegle. As a matter of fact, my point about Omegle is generic, as you are also able to look it up yourself within seconds and get plenty of results. What I am trying to say is. It is all over the place. But do not look it up, of course.

 

[JasonTodd]

How is that specific or a luxury?



It is always an issue. It is an issue by itself. Just let me ask you this. Are you actually affected by the penis pill?



I do not disagree here at all. Quite the opposite, because I do agree here. It is an ego thing. Same for everything else as well. In the end, it all comes down to this.

But I do have to say, that your point about Brad Pitt is way more specific, than my point about Omegle. As a matter of fact, my point about Omegle is generic, as you are also able to look it up yourself within seconds and get plenty of results. What I am trying to say is. It is all over the place. But do not look it up, of course.

I've seen the videos ur talking abt but these are 1 in 100 interections and is basically just a teeny tiny micro taste of what women get for showing their gods.

Dickpill doesn't affect me in the slightest but i also don't have a small dick so it might've affected my ego a bit more than but still my life would look exactly the same if i had 28 cm rn or 28 mm

 

[DPRKcel]

Bodycount under 3 at 25 is like 10% of women

Why do you want her to be short?

because im 5'8 on a good day

 

[LastGerman]

I'll never get naked in front of a woman anyways so i'd gladly trade my above average dick for an even slightly better face or heigth that would make my day to day a little less miserable.

I somehow overlooked this. So, you are just not affected by the penis pill and you have an above average penis. It is interesting, that is is always the same. I had this talk multiple times and always with someone who has a big penis.

Mandatory quote @TooSomething @Grodd @starystulejarz @Spooky_Heejin @Itsoverm8 @NearestNeighbor

I've seen the videos ur talking abt but these are 1 in 100 interections and is basically just a teeny tiny micro taste of what women get for showing their gods.

That is not true at all.

Dickpill doesn't affect me in the slightest but i also don't have a small dick so it might've affected my ego a bit more than but still my life would look exactly the same if i had 28 cm rn or 28 mm

I did overlook it. It does not affect you. I had this talk multiple times now and most of the time, with someone who has a big penis.

 

[Extern]

The foid posting this is obese, small tits and works at starbucks

 

[ogercel]

It's ovER.

 

[ColderManTruce]

High IQ post.

The foid posting this is obese, small tits and works at starbucks

JFL

 

[KhatcodaiA3]

Coming from someone who has a big penis. Of course.

Yet I fail the other 6-checks, Mr German. All three are needed

The omegle thing is a super specific scenario

ofc

This is a male fantasy tho and doesn't reflect reality.

A big dick is only hot on an attractive body.

Its super easy to hide

I've seen the videos ur talking abt

a teeny tiny micro taste

rn

I agree with you about it only mattering for HTN+

However, anything else you've got to say, "Jason" "Todd" from DC comics?

 

[LastGerman]

Yet I fail the other 6-checks, Mr German. All three are needed

Meanwhile I failed at all of them. I would at least want to have a big penis. But I do not have that. Instead I have a small penis. It looks absolutely disgusting. It looks like malformend and it is, indeed, malformed. It is absolutely emasculating and humiliating. It seems, that you still do not understand, how lucky you are and how blessed you are.

 

[LastGerman]

I agree with you about it only mattering for HTN+

However, anything else you've got to say, "Jason" "Todd" from DC comics?

And of course you agree with him. Is not it funny? He also have an above average penis. You all write similar lines and then you agree. This is what I have been noticing when it comes to this topic. There seems to be some sort of shift and all of the sudden, there is now a sentiment of "it does not matter" and this is only when it comes to this topic.

You even agreed with him on Omegle, that it is some super specific scenario, despite the fact, it is not a super specific scenario. You also agreed with him, that it is some "male fantasy and does not reflect reality", which is incorrect. I also addressed this as well.I will quote myself:

But I do have to say, that your point about Brad Pitt is way more specific, than my point about Omegle. As a matter of fact, my point about Omegle is generic, as you are also able to look it up yourself within seconds and get plenty of results. What I am trying to say is. It is all over the place. But do not look it up, of course.

It is always the same. I try to explain this. I also cosnider your point of view and I also even addressed your point of view bvack then. But it seems, that yo uare not considering my point of view. And when I think about it, it makes sense. You do not have to. You are blessed and deep down you know that you are blessed. Whether you want to admit that or not. You are ware of it. Talkin about this, gives you an ego boost. And I do udnerstand this. The feeling you must get from this, must be overwhelming. It is an inconceivable feeling of valdiation, something, that I will never have, yet, I so desperately want it.

I know understand, why tallfags are being hated on here. I was watching a video just yesterday about someone who got leg lengthing surgery. And of ourse, this drew the attention of tallfags, who just had to write the typical platitudes. I am not talking about someone who is 6 feet or slightly above 6 feet. This video drew the attention of actual tallfags, that are 6'7 feet tall. They gave typical platitudes like, that they are too tall to sit in the bus or in the plane or they are too tall for this and that. They used this opportunity, to make it about themselves. They also did not address anything in the video and basically everyone in the comment section tried to blame something else for it.

This is what I have been noticing when it comes to this topic. I think, you are just unable to understand it. I am not saying this to insult you, not at all. It is because, you do not have to understand this. You do not know what it is like to have a small penis. You never will and you also do not have to. What I am saying is, that you are writting from a privileged position and you are indeed privileged. You also let everyone here knwo that you have a big penis. It is kinda funny because, earlier, it was about ego, yet, it is you who get the sweetest ego boost. By the way, no sneers here. I would do the exat same thing with the difference, that I would not waste my time on here and that I would go on a video chat and show off my big penis to females. This is what you could do right now.

@TooSomething @starystulejarz @Spooky_Heejin @Itsoverm8 @NearestNeighbor

 

[ItsOverMan]

OK I asked ChatGPT to estimate this and it gave me this. It adjusted for dependent variables based on studies such as taller men being more likely to make higher incomes, facially attractive men being more likely to make higher incomes, higher income and young and fit men more likely to live in large metro areas, etc.

I’ll extend the same framework and be explicit about where the biggest uncertainty lives.


We are starting from the large metro estimate:


~0.4% of men meet all of these:


– ≥6 inches
– ≥6 ft
– six-figure income
– top-quartile facial attractiveness (locally)
– not fat
– not bald
– age 20–40


Now condition on:


– single
– interested in dating women
– regardless of dating-app usage

Interested in dating women​

Among men 20–40 in large metros:


– Roughly 85–90% are heterosexual or bisexual with interest in women.


Higher-income, metro men skew slightly more gay than the general population, but the difference is not huge.


I’ll use 85%.


Multiplier: ×0.85

---

Single​

This is the biggest filter.


Among U.S. men aged 20–40 overall, about 45–50% are single.
But among high-income, attractive, tall men, partnership rates are higher.


However, large metros also delay marriage and long-term cohabitation.


For men who meet all your criteria, a reasonable estimate is:


– 30–35% single


I’ll use 33% as a midpoint.


Multiplier: ×0.33

---

Apply the filters​

Starting point:
0.4% = 0.004


Now multiply:


0.004 × 0.85 × 0.33 ≈ 0.00112


That’s 0.11%.

---

Final estimate (large metro, single, dating women)​

~0.1% of men, or about 1 in 900.

---

Plausible range​

Because “single” is the most uncertain parameter:


– Lower bound (high coupling rate): ~0.07% (1 in 1,400)
– Upper bound (metros with very delayed partnering): ~0.15% (1 in 650)


Best single estimate: ~0.1–0.12%.


Confidence maybe ~70% on the order of magnitude.

1 in 1000 men in U.S. LARGE METRO AREAS meet those crazy standards. OK woman, are YOU a 1 in 1000 woman in facial attractiveness, height, fitness, virginity, personal qualities, youthfulness, no purple or green hair or visible tats or crazy piercings, etc.?

If they want all of those qualities, if they want everything, they're either really dumb about basic statistics or really delusional or both.