Good news.. some ethnic nations have very low fertility rates now too

[WizardofSoda]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Thailand

Thailand fertility rate 2024: 0.98 (long term replacement is 2.10)

Thailand births 2024: 462,000
Thailand deaths 2024: 571,000

Thailand births mins deaths 2024: -109,000

Thailand population 2019: 66,558,000 (peak population year)
Thailand population 2024: 65,951,000


Downside I was watching on youtube.. Thailand is bringing in masses of people from India, Bangladesh and Myanmar to make up the difference. Thailand also has masses of their own women leaving for other countries with passport bros.

 

[Hoor Al-Ayn]

duhh

population is fairly similar to bacterial growth
population has 4 phases: lag, log, stationary, decline

this can be seen in the People's Republic of China, which currently is experiencing population decline.

that's why overpopulation is a bourgeois myth.

the decline is certainly not good news though in any respect.

 

[WizardofSoda]

duhh

population is fairly similar to bacterial growth
population has 4 phases: lag, log, stationary, decline

this can be seen in the People's Republic of China, which currently is experiencing population decline.
View attachment 1482045

that's why overpopulation is a bourgeois myth.

the decline is certainly not good news though in any respect.

Good post. The global population was about 500 million in the year 1700 and was about 500 million in the year 0. Then from 1700 to today rose in an exponential curve up to 8 billion today. I think over the next 300-400 years the curve will retrace back down to 500 million.


In many places life is awful for the people. Like in Thailand women are whoring themselves out and even then there are 10's of thousands of other women trying to whore themselves out in the same city. Even men in Thailand have joined in as ladyboys and have no hope of getting a wife.

 

[Jimb0]

india next

 

[Hoor Al-Ayn]

Good post. The global population was about 500 million in the year 1700 and was about 500 million in the year 0. Then from 1700 to today rose in an exponential curve up to 8 billion today. I think over the next 300-400 years the curve will retrace back down to 500 million.

My prediction is that in 100-200 years it stabilizes at 10-12 billion maybe. Keep in mind that various countries aren't at their max capacity yet. It will reach a declining phase but idk if it will be that drastic.

but who knows, maybe I'm off the mark, nobody can see the future.

 

[WizardofSoda]

My prediction is that in 100-200 years it stabilizes at 10-12 billion maybe. Keep in mind that various countries aren't at their max capacity yet. It will reach a declining phase but idk if it will be that drastic.

but who knows, maybe I'm off the mark, nobody can see the future.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_European_Union

Ya all we can really do is project forward long term trends and we have the existing populations as a starting point for projections. But the trends can change like in the EU there was this massive stabilization in the fertility rate at around 1.55 children per woman (was going between 1.45 and 1.60). That went from around 1985-2020.

So it looked reasonable to project forward based on that. And to expect other countries would come down to that 1.55 number in time and stabilize there. But in the last two years the EU fertility rate is plummeting below the bottom end of the range.