Get ready for the greatest economic depression in human history

[Blacktarpill]

And retards here still support and/or see nothing wrong with prostitution.
Just lol.

Im not supporting spending the last dollars in your pocket.

 

[sub8male]

I hate women

 

[mylifeistrash]

Yeah. I've done nothing but stare out the numbers coming out for weeks now. A lot of the normies are sitting at home on furlough in my country enjoying skiving off and scared of the virus and they think their jobs will be waiting for them when they feel like coming back. A lot of retail businesses and restaurants and hospitality businesses will never re-open at this rate.

The airline industry? It's over - basically.
The cruise ship business? Maybe in a decade.

We're going to see busts in multiple sectors. WeWork was already collapsing and was basically done for before this kicked off and many analysts were saying it owns so much commercial real estate it would cause a bust.

Now you have AirBnB's business model basically over. You had AirBnB hosts taking on like 10 mortgages in order to rent the properties out. But because AirBnB and WeWork were tech companies they basically got away with it even though there was nothing particularly "tech" about them. They were just taking insane risks in property speculation kind of like what happened in 2007-2008. Low interest rates, low returns are basically why people funded their insane business models because they were desperate to find some yields.

Many hotels depend on the summer season and won't be profitable unless they have high occupation rates. Those with cash may choose to re-open in 12-18 months. Those without will go under. Most of these firms have to much debt.

So you potentially have busts in commercial and residential real estate incoming.

The bond markets prior to the Corona-chan crisis were already fucked with negative bond yields.

The fed was doing nightly back door bailouts probably to JP Morgan in order to bail it out before anyone had heard the name Corona-virus and last year Germany also cried uncle and had to bail out Deutsche bank and transfer its bad assets to a taxpayer funded bailout scheme.

The car industry? They are FUCKED. Ford is done for. Especially if the current crisis in markets leads to inflation and disruption in supply chains causes and oil price spike like in 2008. No one is going to be able to fuel an 18MPG 5L V8 or any of those other over priced SUV's they sell.

Luxury automakers like Tesla, BMW, JLR, Mercedes have a chance. Toyota and VW will survive due to their scope but commuting will not recover from this for years. Some car firms will have to go bust. There was already excess supply and a bubble in sub-prime auto loans and leases before this kicked off. Far to much capacity world wide in the automotive industry.

Boeing? Fuck me. The fed will have to print a lot of money to save them. Airbus has gone back to production but they are operating with less capacity than before because aircraft purchases are going to be scaled back.

Food - you could well see a "reversion to the mean" in food prices with prices increasing 3 or 4 times. Food has been very cheap for a long time because distribution and supply was squeezed to the bare bones from field to plate but i can see it going back to more realistic pricing. Especially if we see a hike in inflation.

Long term in my opinion - the risk isn't inflation but deflation. Now roughly i have seen ball park numbers that the central banks will have to create $40 trillion in new money to paper over the cracks in the system caused by this and they have already printed some $8 trillion but if you have widespread default then debt deflation will be a natural result. Exactly what caused the great depression.

Great analysis. Oil though? Won't it be cheaper than water because of much less demand and way too much production?

Also women will someone come out through this much wealthier. No one knows how but they will.

 

[Deleted member 776]

Great analysis. Oil though? Won't it be cheaper than water because of much less demand and way too much production?

Also women will someone come out through this much wealthier. No one knows how but they will.

Oil is a very interesting conundrum. In this arena i will have to admit i don't have a crystal ball.

The US has parroted "Energy Independence" due to "Fracking" - that is hydraulic fracturing of impermeable shale oil deposits with high pressure water, sand and other chemicals. The thing is though is the ball was set rolling on this sort of during the last recession when we saw oil price spikes. So depending on what kind of oil you are extracting determines the price per barrel. So the cheap oil was the easiest to find - places like Texas and Pennsylvania where oil used to seep out of the ground. You have the grand daddy the Ghawar field in KSA. All of that oil has been found and no more of that kind will be found. Now extracting that oil profitably can be done at $10 a barrel. Then you get into the deep sea drilling - like the North Sea by the UK and Norway. That was bad enough - then you're more into $40 a barrel for profitability. Then you have the operations like the Gulf of Mexico - like the Deepwater Horizon where they were drilling in 3000m of water. Then you're into $70 a barrel for profitability. So what is next? Well you have the oil sands like in Alberta which require large volumes of water and steam to separate the oil from the sand are very energy intensive to extract the oil so you're $90 a barrel there and into the laws of diminishing returns.

Fracking? Well you have to drill a lot more wells than with conventional oil because you have to fracture large amounts of this rock. You have to expend vast amounts of energy and capital to pump all that high pressure water down into the rocks to release the oil. The thing is these wells don't produce for very long - maybe only 2-3 years. Now fracking became a thing when we had lots of cheap money due to 0% interest rates but even then. All these fracking companies - they took the oil and then filed for bankruptcy because they have dozens of these wells and didn't have any money to clean them up.

So over all i have looked into the numbers and i think fracking might well be a net negative energy consumer - in that you put more energy in than you got out and many of these were a net negative capital wise - in many places the taxpayer has ended up footing the bill to clean up and secure the old well heads left over after bankruptcy. The end consumer has seen a glut of cheap oil and SUV's got popular. You see how economically insane this is?

KSA saw the chance to release a lot of their very cheap oil onto the market to try and reduce shale prices and give themselves back control of the market and Sen. Ted Cruz took to Twitter to cry about it.

So if oil prices crash - can these shale and tar sands and deep sea drillers stay in business? Will they keep producing? What about the refineries? If commuting is down will the US need as many refineries. Maybe a few close down - but restarting them likewise could take time. Now if prices increase again they might start producing but its not like a tap - the gap could see price swings.

Also - the other factor - people talk about peak oil - we saw how zero percent interest rates created the oil glut. Think about peak credit - Can a new wave of oil exploration or fracking even be financed at this point? That would indicate a trend upwards in oil prices. Then think about 2008 - there was a lot more at work in the oil markets than just supply factors.

In 2008 you had a massive bust and money searching around for returns and a safe haven - to some extent speculators many with the help of the big banks but the other factor was inflation in the US dollar. Now governments and fed all play games to measure inflation in such a way it doesn't show up in the figures - in the words of one man at a Q&A with Ben Bernanke "I can't eat an iPad". So inflation could also cause a spike in oil prices - deflation probably wouldn't be great either because it would rob the industry of capital in order to finance new drilling and maintenance of existing oil infrastructure and reduce consumers ability to buy oil.

I couldn't say for sure what will happen mate. But do you see how fucked up things could get?

Maybe Tesla is underpriced? Things are fucking insane out there.

 

[Cybersex is our hope]

My favorite kebab place shut down too

 

[Deleted member 16608]

remember when mgtow copers said women will be crawling back to men or turning tricks during the next great depression? women don't even have to whore themselves to low value men anymore. prostitutes are strictly doing onlyfans now and Chad on the side. Chad-only sex has become the norm.

 

[The Abyss]

Yea that's not gonna happen this time. Cause they got simp money

We had Arab money but now it's simp money.

 

[Cybersex is our hope]

Can't wait until people get fed up and start feeding them bullets or sharp objects one by one. Lifefuel that attacks are going to get even more violent and frequent the more they try to take away weapons and rights

I hate women

 

[changeiscoming]

Oil is a very interesting conundrum. In this arena i will have to admit i don't have a crystal ball.

The US has parroted "Energy Independence" due to "Fracking" - that is hydraulic fracturing of impermeable shale oil deposits with high pressure water, sand and other chemicals. The thing is though is the ball was set rolling on this sort of during the last recession when we saw oil price spikes. So depending on what kind of oil you are extracting determines the price per barrel. So the cheap oil was the easiest to find - places like Texas and Pennsylvania where oil used to seep out of the ground. You have the grand daddy the Ghawar field in KSA. All of that oil has been found and no more of that kind will be found. Now extracting that oil profitably can be done at $10 a barrel. Then you get into the deep sea drilling - like the North Sea by the UK and Norway. That was bad enough - then you're more into $40 a barrel for profitability. Then you have the operations like the Gulf of Mexico - like the Deepwater Horizon where they were drilling in 3000m of water. Then you're into $70 a barrel for profitability. So what is next? Well you have the oil sands like in Alberta which require large volumes of water and steam to separate the oil from the sand are very energy intensive to extract the oil so you're $90 a barrel there and into the laws of diminishing returns.

Fracking? Well you have to drill a lot more wells than with conventional oil because you have to fracture large amounts of this rock. You have to expend vast amounts of energy and capital to pump all that high pressure water down into the rocks to release the oil. The thing is these wells don't produce for very long - maybe only 2-3 years. Now fracking became a thing when we had lots of cheap money due to 0% interest rates but even then. All these fracking companies - they took the oil and then filed for bankruptcy because they have dozens of these wells and didn't have any money to clean them up.

So over all i have looked into the numbers and i think fracking might well be a net negative energy consumer - in that you put more energy in than you got out and many of these were a net negative capital wise - in many places the taxpayer has ended up footing the bill to clean up and secure the old well heads left over after bankruptcy. The end consumer has seen a glut of cheap oil and SUV's got popular. You see how economically insane this is?

KSA saw the chance to release a lot of their very cheap oil onto the market to try and reduce shale prices and give themselves back control of the market and Sen. Ted Cruz took to Twitter to cry about it.

So if oil prices crash - can these shale and tar sands and deep sea drillers stay in business? Will they keep producing? What about the refineries? If commuting is down will the US need as many refineries. Maybe a few close down - but restarting them likewise could take time. Now if prices increase again they might start producing but its not like a tap - the gap could see price swings.

Also - the other factor - people talk about peak oil - we saw how zero percent interest rates created the oil glut. Think about peak credit - Can a new wave of oil exploration or fracking even be financed at this point? That would indicate a trend upwards in oil prices. Then think about 2008 - there was a lot more at work in the oil markets than just supply factors.

In 2008 you had a massive bust and money searching around for returns and a safe haven - to some extent speculators many with the help of the big banks but the other factor was inflation in the US dollar. Now governments and fed all play games to measure inflation in such a way it doesn't show up in the figures - in the words of one man at a Q&A with Ben Bernanke "I can't eat an iPad". So inflation could also cause a spike in oil prices - deflation probably wouldn't be great either because it would rob the industry of capital in order to finance new drilling and maintenance of existing oil infrastructure and reduce consumers ability to buy oil.

I couldn't say for sure what will happen mate. But do you see how fucked up things could get?

Maybe Tesla is underpriced? Things are fucking insane out there.

it was a pleasure reading your two posts on here. Clearly high IQ

do you have any articles or further resources which expand on the points u stated so succinctly how fucked is the near future with this?