The Weekly Close
After another week of chop, Bitcoin closed above the 200W MA once again. Our favorable July seasonality window is coming to an end so we now have to mentally prepare for the volatility we are likely going to experience in August and September. Remaining disciplined and having a plan is the best way to navigate these volatile seasonality windows so now is the time to put that plan together. It’s much easier to create a solid plan during the calm periods compared to trying to react during the storm.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains in Fear. I expect this to continue over the next few months as we try to form a bottom. A lot of investors are already nervous about entering this difficult seasonality window so I expect news headlines and narratives that will further increase that fear and uncertainty. This is what investors have to navigate every single bear market and it’s what creates the opportunity for those that are able to take advantage and survive to see the next bull phase.
The Global Liquidity Index
The GLI is still chopping sideways. This week’s FOMC meeting should help provide some insight as to what we can expect from the FED going forward. Investors are quite concerned that the FED will be hawkish in the short-term and that is creating some strength in the US Dollar which is putting downward pressure on The GLI. The GLI also aligns with what seasonality is telling us to expect in August and September so I do plan to take that confluence of factors seriously.
Inflation
We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, on Thursday, July 30th. Core PCE has been rising quite rapidly in recent months so market participants will be watching this print closely to see if that trend is still ongoing or if it has begun to slow down. We did get a nice drop on another popular measure of inflation, Core CPI, recently so hopefully we see the same with Core PCE this week. That would remove a lot of the pressure on the FED to be hawkish and fight inflation for the remainder of the year.
The Bigger Picture
Bitcoin is still in the Cheap
region. It’s hard to know what the remainder of 2026 has in store, but so far things have been going according to plan. Maybe we’ll get another opportunity to buy in the Very Cheap
region in August and September, but I have a hard time coming up with a reason why Bitcoin would go significantly lower later this year. Regardless, I feel well prepared for multiple outcomes because I have a plan to take advantage of whatever Bitcoin throws at us.
What I’m doing with my portfolio
No changes were made to my portfolio this week. These are not prices where I want to take profits or accumulate. I’d only take profits if Bitcoin hit much higher prices and I’d only accumulate more if Bitcoin hit new lows. In the meantime, patience and discipline is what I will be relying on to stay calm and stick to my system for the remainder of 2026. I am 100% there will be surprises because there always are, but remaining calm and managing risk gives us the highest likelihood of success in navigating those surprises.
