JFL A 2017 study/review of whether the police can predict if domestic violence will lead to murder or serious harm

[The Notorious SLAV]

Let's just say it didn't work out.

Thames Valley Police records were examined for 118 victims and 120 offenders in all 118 cases of “deadly” domestic violence: murder, attempted murder, manslaughter, and grievous bodily harm with intent in calendar years 2007, 2008 and 2009. Police National Computer (PNC) and other records of police contact with those persons prior to the cases identified for this prediction study were also coded... Local police risk assessments, including the DASH protocol, were coded for deadly violence cases with prior police contact.

In 55% of deadly violence cases, there was no prior recorded contact by police with the victim; a further 21% of victims had only one prior police contact. Not one of the 13 murder cases with any prior police contact had ever been assessed by responding officers as “high risk” based on DASH or its predecessor, for a 100% false negative rate of prediction on risk of murder and an 89% false negative rate for any deadly violence (only 6 cases with prior contact had been classified as high risk). In contrast, during the same time period, 2721 other domestic violence cases yielded “high-risk” assessments but were not actually followed by deadly violence.

Police Attempts to Predict Domestic Murder and Serious Assaults: Is Early Warning Possible Yet? - Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing

Research Question What facts known to police, if any, could have predicted the 118 domestic and family murders and near-murders in the Thames Valley (UK) police area over a recent three-year period? Data Thames Valley Police records were examined for 118 victims and 120 offenders in all 118...

link.springer.com

Over 2,700 cases classified as "high-risk", and all they got out of that was that they got six non-fatal ones correctly, out of dozens. Zero murders correctly predicted by being placed in the "high-risk" category, and I guess those six cases they correctly placed were all GBH with intent, because what they were is I guess buried somewhere in the text of the report, as they aren't anywhere in the tables. If they got the manslaughter one or the attempted murder ones correctly, I guess the report would proudly show it.

Speaking of that, GBH had a pretty gender equal split in victimization:

But yeah, just a comical level of failure in trying to predict those types of crimes. This isn't directly inceldom related, but still worth knowing about, if only because of how often we are accussed of stuff like this, because of how many weirdos don't understand the "virgins with no gfs" stuff (though, given the stats above, blaming guys with no one to abuse of doing so seems par for the course). And of course, much more importantly, this shows you just how absolutely clueless people are at understanding other people and predicting their behaviour. Stuff like this makes you understand just why literally nobody outside of incel communities seems to get them, and how bullshit the idea that it's our "vibes" or "views" that are the reason why we are disliked, because people are somehow able to smell them or whatever, predict that we are dangerous or something, and that's why we are socially isolated. Literal cops trained to deal with crimes and prevent them where possible fail 99%+ of times when trying to predict how dangerous a situation, and a person, is.

 

[Tsunchad]

An incel could get slightly angry that the cashier won't listen to him when ordering pizza and that will make him worse than Satan. Meanwhile chad says "Listen to me or I'll get behind there bitch, I want pepperoni on MY pizza." and the foid will quietly take that threat while everyone outside sees the chad as a law abiding man.

 

[The Notorious SLAV]

An incel could get slightly angry that the cashier won't listen to him when ordering pizza and that will make him worse than Satan. Meanwhile chad says "Listen to me or I'll get behind there bitch, I want pepperoni on MY pizza." and the foid will quietly take that threat while everyone outside sees the chad as a law abiding man.

Exactly. "Vibes" are literally just looks, and we must never forget that.

 

[GeckoBus]

Let's just say it didn't work out.

Police Attempts to Predict Domestic Murder and Serious Assaults: Is Early Warning Possible Yet? - Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing

Research Question What facts known to police, if any, could have predicted the 118 domestic and family murders and near-murders in the Thames Valley (UK) police area over a recent three-year period? Data Thames Valley Police records were examined for 118 victims and 120 offenders in all 118...

link.springer.com

Over 2,700 cases classified as "high-risk", and all they got out of that was that they got six non-fatal ones correctly, out of dozens. Zero murders correctly predicted by being placed in the "high-risk" category, and I guess those six cases they correctly placed were all GBH with intent, because what they were is I guess buried somewhere in the text of the report, as they aren't anywhere in the tables. If they got the manslaughter one or the attempted murder ones correctly, I guess the report would proudly show it.

View attachment 1647057

Speaking of that, GBH had a pretty gender equal split in victimization:

View attachment 1647058

But yeah, just a comical level of failure in trying to predict those types of crimes. This isn't directly inceldom related, but still worth knowing about, if only because of how often we are accussed of stuff like this, because of how many weirdos don't understand the "virgins with no gfs" stuff (though, given the stats above, blaming guys with no one to abuse of doing so seems par for the course). And of course, much more importantly, this shows you just how absolutely clueless people are at understanding other people and predicting their behaviour. Stuff like this makes you understand just why literally nobody outside of incel communities seems to get them, and how bullshit the idea that it's our "vibes" or "views" that are the reason why we are disliked, because people are somehow able to smell them or whatever, predict that we are dangerous or something, and that's why we are socially isolated. Literal cops trained to deal with crimes and prevent them where possible fail 99%+ of times when trying to predict how dangerous a situation, and a person, is.

I remember similar stuff when I looked into the whole personality thing. Basically the personality argument reduces to communication and communication to body language - they always say communication is 70% body language or something. Anyway, everyone and their moms thinks they are a body language expert. The police relies on body language in interrogation. There are body language experts shilling their shit to law enforcement. But when they did research, it turned out that despite ultra high confidence, nobody could read body language correctly.

For example it turned out that everyone thought they knew some sort of "tell" for lying e.g. nervous blinking, rubbing your nose, shifty eyes... in practice, nobody could tell if someone was lying or not. Basically people judge others solely based on context + looks. There is no personality. They can not see your intentions or past history, wow, what an amazing revelation, hallelujah, praise the lawd amen.

 

[The Notorious SLAV]

I remember similar stuff when I looked into the whole personality thing. Basically the personality argument reduces to communication and communication to body language - they always say communication is 70% body language or something. Anyway, everyone and their moms thinks they are a body language expert. The police relies on body language in interrogation. There are body language experts shilling their shit to law enforcement. But when they did research, it turned out that despite ultra high confidence, nobody could read body language correctly.

For example it turned out that everyone thought they knew some sort of "tell" for lying e.g. nervous blinking, rubbing your nose, shifty eyes... in practice, nobody could tell if someone was lying or not. Basically people judge others solely based on context + looks. There is no personality. They can not see your intentions or past history, wow, what an amazing revelation, hallelujah, praise the lawd amen.

Just about the only way you can really reliably "predict" someone's behaviour, is guessing that they probably won't do something very extreme like murders or terrorism.