Hey I’m back with an even darker twist on my last post. We’ve established the global population is slowing, peaking around 2060 at 9 billion, then declining fast—potentially below 400 million by 2250–2300—due to aging populations, economic collapse, deflation, and a leftward lurch into Marxism, feminism, LGBT rights, and anti-natalist gloom. But what if it doesn’t stop there? What if the decline accelerates until humanity flatlines at zero? I’ve crunched the numbers again, and it’s not as far-fetched as it sounds. Let’s dive in.
Recap: The Decline Is Already Locked In
As of March 24, 2025, we’re at 8.2 billion, growing at 0.7% per year, but that’s dropping by 0.02 percentage points annually (Our World in Data). Projections say we peak at 9–9.7 billion by 2060 (The Lancet), then decline as fertility rates crash below replacement (2.1 kids/woman) to 1.5 or lower by 2100. Developed nations like Japan (-0.5% yearly drop) and South Korea (fertility at 0.8) show what’s coming: shrinking populations only propped up by immigration, which won’t scale globally. My last post predicted a fall to 400 million by 2250–2300 with an accelerating decline rate. Now, let’s push it to zero.
The Acceleration Machine: Why It Won’t Stop
The decline doesn’t just coast—it speeds up. Here’s the engine:
The Math: From 400 Million to Zero
Let’s start where we left off: 400 million in 2300, with a decline rate of -2.6% per year that keeps accelerating. I’ll assume it increases by 0.05% annually (same as before), but as the population shrinks, the absolute drop gets smaller even as the percentage grows. Here’s a rough timeline:
Reality Check: Could It Really Happen?
No population has hit zero naturally, but we’ve never seen a globalized decline like this. Japan’s losing 0.5% yearly now; scale that up with no immigration, and -5% or -7% isn’t crazy by 2400. Historical collapses (e.g., post-Roman Empire regional drops) hit 50%+ over centuries, but modern tech and culture could amplify it. If fertility falls below 0.5 globally—plausible with anti-natalism—and death rates spike from aging or chaos, zero becomes mathematically inevitable. Counterforces like AI, gene editing, or mass migration might delay it, but I’m betting on collapse.
When Does It Hit Zero?
My call: the global population could effectively reach zero between 2400 and 2420. That’s 375–395 years from now. It’s not a neat “last human dies” moment—think scattered remnants fading out. The decline rate could hit -7% or more by then, wiping out the last millions fast. Compare that to the UN’s chill “stabilize at 10 billion” vibe—this is the dark timeline.
TL;DR
Population peaks at 9 billion in 2060, crashes to 400 million by 2300, then races to zero by 2400–2420, driven by old people, broke economies, and a Marxist-feminist-anti-kid culture spiral. No stabilization, just extinction. Am I unhinged, or is this the endgame?
Recap: The Decline Is Already Locked In
As of March 24, 2025, we’re at 8.2 billion, growing at 0.7% per year, but that’s dropping by 0.02 percentage points annually (Our World in Data). Projections say we peak at 9–9.7 billion by 2060 (The Lancet), then decline as fertility rates crash below replacement (2.1 kids/woman) to 1.5 or lower by 2100. Developed nations like Japan (-0.5% yearly drop) and South Korea (fertility at 0.8) show what’s coming: shrinking populations only propped up by immigration, which won’t scale globally. My last post predicted a fall to 400 million by 2250–2300 with an accelerating decline rate. Now, let’s push it to zero.
The Acceleration Machine: Why It Won’t Stop
The decline doesn’t just coast—it speeds up. Here’s the engine:
- Elderly Overload: By 2100, the dependency ratio hits 1.16 (old folks outnumber workers, per The Lancet), draining resources and leaving no slack for kids. Japan’s already losing 600k+ yearly (Reuters).
- Economic Death Spiral: Fewer people = less demand = deflation = stagnant wages. Look at Japan’s 30-year deflation mess—now imagine it global. No one’s affording families.
- Cultural Collapse: Marxism, feminism, LGBT rights, and anti-natalism (e.g., “kids are bad for the planet”) dominate, especially in democracies. Fertility’s already at 1.2 in China, 0.8 in South Korea—anti-kid vibes could push it to 0.5 or less.
- Negative Feedback: Depressed societies breed despair, not babies. Add climate chaos or wars, and it’s game over.
The Math: From 400 Million to Zero
Let’s start where we left off: 400 million in 2300, with a decline rate of -2.6% per year that keeps accelerating. I’ll assume it increases by 0.05% annually (same as before), but as the population shrinks, the absolute drop gets smaller even as the percentage grows. Here’s a rough timeline:
- 2300: 400 million, -2.6% decline (389.6 million by 2301, losing 10.4 million/year).
- 2350: Decline rate hits -4.1%, population ~150 million (losing ~6.2 million/year).
- 2375: Decline rate at -5.1%, population ~70 million (losing ~3.6 million/year).
- 2390: Decline rate at -5.6%, population ~30 million (losing ~1.7 million/year).
- 2400: Decline rate at -6.1%, population ~10 million (losing ~0.6 million/year).
- 2410: Decline rate at -6.6%, population drops below 1 million (losing ~66k/year).
- 2420: Decline rate at -7.1%, population nears zero (hundreds of thousands or less).
Reality Check: Could It Really Happen?
No population has hit zero naturally, but we’ve never seen a globalized decline like this. Japan’s losing 0.5% yearly now; scale that up with no immigration, and -5% or -7% isn’t crazy by 2400. Historical collapses (e.g., post-Roman Empire regional drops) hit 50%+ over centuries, but modern tech and culture could amplify it. If fertility falls below 0.5 globally—plausible with anti-natalism—and death rates spike from aging or chaos, zero becomes mathematically inevitable. Counterforces like AI, gene editing, or mass migration might delay it, but I’m betting on collapse.
When Does It Hit Zero?
My call: the global population could effectively reach zero between 2400 and 2420. That’s 375–395 years from now. It’s not a neat “last human dies” moment—think scattered remnants fading out. The decline rate could hit -7% or more by then, wiping out the last millions fast. Compare that to the UN’s chill “stabilize at 10 billion” vibe—this is the dark timeline.
TL;DR
Population peaks at 9 billion in 2060, crashes to 400 million by 2300, then races to zero by 2400–2420, driven by old people, broke economies, and a Marxist-feminist-anti-kid culture spiral. No stabilization, just extinction. Am I unhinged, or is this the endgame?
