Longevity escape velocity (futuristcels)

[WizardofSoda]

Say we start out with a guy who was 30 years old in 2020 and the life expectancy (LE) for males in his country is 70 years. So at that point he had 40 years left as a statistical average. But then if the pharmaceutical industry scaling and speeding up its rate of advances, possibly aided by ever more powerful computing/software/AI, each decade that goes by the LE is rising. In this hypothetical scenario. The + numbers are years gained in that decade to the LE.

2020's: +2 years LE = 72
2030's: +4 years LE = 76
2040's: +6 years LE = 82

Ok so at that point 30 years would have gone by and our guy is now 60 years old. But the LE has also risen by 12 years in that time to 82. He has an expected 22 years left.

2050's: +8 years LE = 90
2060's: +10 years LE = 100
2070's: +12 years LE = 112

This is where it gets more interesting. Now the guy is 90 years old. But the LE has also risen by 30 years to 112, so he still has 22 years left.

2080's: +14 years LE = 126
2090's: +16 years LE = 142
2100's: +18 years LE = 160

Now the guy is 120 years old. But the LE has risen by 48 years to 160, so he actually has 40 years left. The same as he had 90 years earlier.



How likely is the above. Its hard to say in honesty, we can't really imagine what AI can do as it scales up exponentially. At the same time we just don't know how difficult it will be to reverse damage from aging.

 

[Med Amine]

doesn't that mean that this guy can be alive forever. he's basically immortal since every year there will be more technological advancments and with those advancments his life expectancy will increase.

anyway, living a very long life is pointless if you don't get to enjoy it

 

[WizardofSoda]

doesn't that mean that this guy can be alive forever. he's basically immortal since every year there will be more technological advancments and with those advancments his life expectancy will increase.

anyway, living a very long life is pointless if you don't get to enjoy it

Ya exactly. There are some risks he still faces though.

-accidental/violent deaths
-the 160 years LE at the end of that decade in 2110 in the scenario is a statistical average so he could get unlucky
-most likely the technological advancement would continue and continue to accelerate but its not 100%.

 

[Defetivecuckachu]

The average life expectancy would be even higher, if those people who drag the average down by smoking a pack a day and eating pure cholesterol weren't around.

Just imagine how much longer your life expectancy would be, if they weren't doing that, eh?

 

[Defetivecuckachu]

Oh and even if you live 30 years longer, it's not 30 more years of being 25. It's 30 more years of being very very old at the end. Is that what you want?

 

[Ahnfeltia]

The biggest problem in such a scenario might very well be the economical side of population aging.

 

[WizardofSoda]

Oh and even if you live 30 years longer, it's not 30 more years of being 25. It's 30 more years of being very very old at the end. Is that what you want?

Why it doesn't work for keeping people alive in a frail, elderly state is they are too likely to die in that state. You have to at minimum slow down the rate of aging for small progress.. and for big progress you have to outright be reversing aging damage.

The long term goals with pharmaceuticals is to restore everyone to like a 20 year old health state and beyond. Like altering their biochemistry with the pharmaceuticals which are chemicals that interact with the biochemistry.

 

[WizardofSoda]

The biggest problem in such a scenario might very well be the economical side of population aging.

Especially early on in the game like where we are now. Where people are living longer, but they are still declining physically maybe just slower. One response to this is countries are raising the pension age.

Later on in the game when we are actually reversing aging damage then the people would be chronologically old, but physically robust/younger.

Yet another thing is the AI is going to do more and more of the work in the economy.

 

[Ahnfeltia]

Later on in the game when we are actually reversing aging damage then the people would be chronologically old, but physically robust/younger.

Yet another thing is the AI is going to do more and more of the work in the economy.

Under these additional assumptions population aging will indeed not be a problem. I ain't convinced it's gonna happen tho, esp. anytime soon. Would you even want this to happen? I wouldn't.

 

[WizardofSoda]

Under these additional assumptions population aging will indeed not be a problem. I ain't convinced it's gonna happen tho, esp. anytime soon. Would you even want this to happen? I wouldn't.

For me yes I would like to see it happen. If we keep advancing in science and technology I think it will eventually happen, but the question is how long it will take. And we don't know that we will keep advancing science and technology.

Looking on a shorter horizon with what we know now it seems to me like we can add 2 years to the LE this decade, and 4 years in the 2030's. Then is 6 years possible in the 2040's I'm not sure.

Another thing is the way its happening isn't like people are at age 30 starting a bunch of anti-aging drugs. Its that medicine is treating people who are going downhill. And medicine is figuring out that its better to start treating people earlier in the decline of systems. So in other words the medical system isn't directly targeting aging yet, but when you are stopping systems in their body from going downhill or delaying it, it has the effect of them living longer than otherwise.

 

[WizardofSoda]

Bump for futuristcels who might have missed this.

 

[Repulsive123]

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